Joseph George Caldwell, PhD (Statistics)

Consultant in Statistics and Information Technology

1432 N. Camino Mateo, Tucson, AZ 85745 USA

Tel. (001)(520)222-3446, e-mail: jcaldwell9@yahoo.com

 

Summary:  Consultant in information technology, operations research and statistics to business, finance, industry, and government.  Specialist in forecasting / time series analysis / stochastic processes; financial modeling / risk management; optimization and optimal strategy determination; sample survey design and analysis; simulation, modeling, and analysis; systems and software engineering; data base design and implementation.  Experienced in use of modern statistical analysis and database software (e.g., SAS/Oracle, SPSS, Stata, Microsoft Access, ArcView GIS, CHAID, Visual Basic, C, Fortran, SQL, Xbase) on UNIX and Microsoft Windows operating systems.  Strong mathematical background (PhD in mathematical statistics), with experience in complex mathematical operations and algorithms such as linear operators, ARIMA models, matrix methods, statistical and optimization algorithms, numerical methods, Monte Carlo simulation. Recent banking risk management experience.  Very strong programming skills (stochastic processes / time series analysis, optimization, financial modeling / risk management).  Diverse international experience.

 

Standards-Based Quality Management.  For larger projects, Dr. Caldwell employs a “standards-based quality management” approach to project management.  This approach makes full use of internationally recognized management and technical standards that are applicable to the effort.  Examples of projects that he directed that employed this approach are the following:

 

·                Manager of Research and Development and Principal Scientist, US Army Electronic Proving Ground’s Electromagnetic Environmental Test Facility.  In this role, all of the engineering and software development efforts directed by Dr. Caldwell were conducted in conformance with applicable US military standards (software development, systems engineering, test and evaluation).

 

·                Personnel Management Information System (PMIS) for the Government of Malawi.  This project, which developed the personnel management information system for the Malawi civil service, was conducted in strict compliance with the leading software development standard at the time, the US Department of Defense’s Defense Systems Software Development, 2167A, which was the predecessor to today’s international information-technology standard, ISO 12207, Software Life Cycle Processes

 

·                Research in Artificial Intelligence for Noncommunications Electronic Warfare Systems.  The purpose of this project was to develop an automated system for generating military scenarios for use in testing of military electronic-warfare systems.  This project was developed in full compliance with the DOD-STD2167A Defense Systems Software Development Standard.

 

·                Director of Management Systems for the central bank of Botswana.  As Director of Management System for the Bank of Botswana, Dr. Caldwell introduced a number of quality-management initiatives, including:

o   Direction of the Bank’s Year-2000 program using guidelines published by the US General Accounting Office (“Year 2000 Computing Crisis: Business Continuity and Contingency Planning”) and the Bank for International Settlements.  As a result of this program, the Bank did not experience a single “Year 2000 date change” problem.

o   Use of the ISO 12207 Information Technology Standard to guide all major software development and acquisition efforts (such as the effort to acquire a national code-line clearing system based on magnetic-ink character recognition of checks, and the project to acquire a computer network management system for the Bank).

o   Initiation of an effort to have the Bank’s Management Systems Department operate in compliance with the ISO 9000 Quality Management Standard.

o   Assessment of the software development capability of the Bank’s staff and its software suppliers using the Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model (CMM) (predecessor of the ISO 15504 Standard, Software Process Improvement and Capability Determination (“SPICE”)).

o   Direction of the project to develop the Bank’s Business Continuity Plan / Disaster Recovery Plan, using the Business Continuity Planning Guidelines issued by the Texas Department of Information Resources.

o   Direction of the project to develop an information technology security plan, using the US General Accounting Office’s Information Security Risk Assessment guidelines.

 

In addition to providing assurance that work conducted in compliance with international professional standards will be of high quality, one of the other distinct benefits of using standards-based quality management is that staff members benefit greatly from being provided the opportunity and experience of working in compliance with quality management and technical standards.

 

 

Experience

 

2005 – Present (2016).  Technical advisor in statistics and information systems.  Designed sample surveys to conduct rigorous impact evaluations of development projects in Honduras, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Namibia, and several other African countries (work funded mainly by the Millennium Challenge Corporation, and contracted through National Opinion Research Center (NORC) of the University of Chicago).  Technical advisor in information systems for the US Agency for International Development in Guinea (performance indicators database system) and Liberia (“One Stop Shop” computer / communications system linking the Central Bank of Liberia, the Ministry of Finance and the National Port).  Technical advisor to advise the Government of Timor-Leste on the selection of a software developer to develop a civil service personnel management information system (United Nations Development Program, East Timor).

 

2002 – 2005. Technical Advisor in Educational Management Information Systems, Academy for Educational Development, Zambia.  Technical advisor to a project funded by the US Agency for International Development, to develop an Educational Management Information System (EMIS) for the Zambia Ministry of Education.  The purpose of the EMIS is to collect, store, and retrieve data (produce reports) from the Annual School Census, in support of program planning and analysis by the Ministry and donor agencies.  Applications developed in Microsoft Access database development system and ArcView geographic information system.

 

1999 – 2001, Director of Management Systems, Bank of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.  Responsible for management of all information technology operations for the Bank of Botswana, Botswana’s central (reserve) bank (IT vision, strategy, policy, procedures, operations, acquisition, training, staff development)The Bank’s computer system is comprised of over 300 networked microcomputers running under Windows NT/95/98/2000, Novell 4.1 and UNIX operating systems.  Managed a group of 16 information technology specialists to operate and support the Bank’s computer hardware and software applications (network management; Microsoft Office Suite; Internet/intranet; banking operations; accounting; investment portfolio / foreign reserve management; financial data services; economic analysis; human-resources management; and asset management.  Introduced modern management and software engineering practices based on standards-based quality management (ISO 9000 Quality Management standard, ISO 12207 Information Technology standard, Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute Capability Maturity Model (CMM), DOD-STD-498 Software Development and Documentation).  Responsible for system development (design, implementation), procurement, training, operations and maintenance (annual budget approximately USD3 million, exclusive of staff salaries, training, and noncomputer facilities and equipment).  Responsible for setting Bank’s IT vision, strategy, policy, procedures, security.  Supervised approximately 30 IT projects.  Directed the Bank’s Year-2000 date-change (“Y2K”) program, in accordance with international standards (Bank for International Settlements and US government) (no date-change problems encountered after the century date change).  Directed preparation of the Bank’s first disaster-recovery plan.  Directed preparation of the Bank’s first disaster-recovery plan.  Supervised the development of the Bank’s first web page, and acquisition of the country’s first “code-line clearing” system (for magnetic-ink character recognition (MICR) of bank checks).  Participated in all meetings of the Bank’s Executive Committee and Board of Directors; reported to the Governor and Deputy Governor.

 

1998, Management Information System Consultant, Asian Development Bank / Academy for Educational Development, Dhaka, Bangladesh.  Determined system requirements for the Bangladesh secondary education Educational Management Information System (EMIS) (review of current systems, identification of user information needs, identification and comparative evaluation of alternative systems, cost estimation, budget/implementation plan).

 

1997 – 1998, Consultant in Risk Management, Canada Trust Bank / Strategic Sourcing Inc., Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  Responsible for the development of analytical models for risk management of the Bank's loan products.  Utilized a “value-based management” approach to develop variable-rate pricing strategies that maximize shareholder value added, taking into account customer and product characteristics.  Developed a model for risk-based variable-rate pricing of loans, using the techniques of Generalized Lagrange Multipliers (GLM) and mathematical simulation.  The methodology determines pricing strategies that are optimal (i.e., maximize shareholder value added, or profit in excess of the cost of capital) with respect to the allocation of capital to the Bank's investment opportunities, taking customer, market, and policy factors into account.  The computer simulation approach is used as an efficient framework for exploring alternative pricing strategies; the GLM method is used to determine pricing strategies that maximize shareholder value added (profitability) subject to constraints (on capital reserve requirements, probability of exceeding loss provisions, and other factors).  Windows NT, UNIX, SAS, graphical user interface developed in Visual Basic 5.0.

 

1996 – 1997, Statistical / Operations Research Consultant, First Union National Bank / Strategic Sourcing, Inc., Charlotte, North Carolina.  Conducted statistical analysis to develop customer segmentation models in support of bankcard marketing initiatives (credit scoring models).  Developed lagrangian optimization model for identifying profitable locations for automatic teller machines (ATMs).  Used SAS statistical analysis software and ArcView 3.0 geographic information system (spatial analyst) to develop logistic regression and discriminant analysis models to identify likely customers for PC banking.  Models used a wide range of economic and demographic data at the block group and ZIP-code levels (population, income, employment, sales, shopping centers, crime statistics, traffic counts, ATM locations and characteristics).  Windows 95 and UNIX (Sun Solaris SPARCcenter).

 

1995 – 1996, Statistical consulting in Malawi and Ghana, Africa.  In Malawi, developed the sample survey design for the national annual school enrolment survey for the Ministry of Education.  In Ghana, designed a national sample survey of the employment and income impact of nontraditional exports for the Ministry of Industry.

 

1993 – 1994, Software Engineering / Database Design, Government of Malawi / Academy for Educational Development, Lilongwe, Malawi.  Designed and implemented the national civil service information system for the Government of Malawi Office of President and Cabinet, Department of Human Resource Management.  System design was developed in full compliance with the DOD-STD-2167A (now MIL-STD-498) software development standard, and implemented on PC workstations (MS-DOS, dBASE, some UNIX, Informix).  System was designed with a graphical user interface (GUI) that enabled personnel officers in the Department of Human Resources and Development to run a wide variety of queries and reports using "point-and-click" menus.  Provided technical direction to a staff of six information technologists in modern software engineering discipline (structured, top-down, modular design, software development using a standard; data modeling, data base design, normalization).

 

1991 – 1993, US Agency for International Development / Chemonics, Program Monitoring and Evaluation, Cairo, Egypt.  Served as Manager of Monitoring and Evaluation for the Local Development II - Provincial project in Egypt, the largest local-level infrastructure development project in the world.  Designed and implemented a nationwide system for monitoring 16,000 local-level infrastructure development projects in Egypt (roads, potable water, waste water, environment, schools).  Designed a national sample survey to collect data on a sampling basis from the projects.  Implemented data collection and processing using dBASE, and conducted statistical analysis with SPSS/PC+.

 

1989 – 1991, President, Vista Research Corporation, Director of project to develop expert system for automatic military scenario generation, Tucson, Arizona.  For the US Army Communications-Electronics Command, directed the project, "Research in Artificial Intelligence for Noncommunications Electronic Warfare Systems."  Project involved the design and implementation of a prototype expert system for positioning electronic warfare equipment on a battlefield, taking into account the mission of friendly forces, the enemy threat, tactics, and terrain.  Used the Army Corps of Engineers GRASS GIS for digital terrain data and the NASA CLIPS expert system for implementation of rules.  Development in accordance with DOD-STD-2167A.  Object-oriented design.  System coded in C.

 

Prior to 1989, operated as an independent consultant or associate of various consulting firms and other organizations, including:

 

Founder and Manager of Vista Research Corporation, Tucson, Arizona and Alexandria, Virginia, contract research firm specializing in statistical / research design, simulation and modeling, policy analysis, and program evaluation in government and defense applications.  Contracts with US Department of Health and Human Services, US Department of Education, US Air Force, US Army, US Office of Naval Research, US Agency for International Development, US Department of Agriculture, Government of the Philippines, African Development Bank, various state governments and private firms.  Seven years.

 

Director of Research and Development and Principal Investigator of the US Army Electronic Proving Ground's Electromagnetic Environmental Test Facility, Fort Huachuca, Arizona.  Four years.

 

Professor of Statistics at the University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.  Four years.  Taught graduate course in sample survey design and analysis, and the required undergraduate statistics course for all students of business, management, MIS, and public administration.

 

Other qualifications:  Working knowledge of French and Spanish.  Director of over twenty technical projects.  Author of over fifty publications in the areas described above, and books on tax reform and global population (list available on request).  Many articles on diverse topics (energy, environment, politics, tax reform, music, guitar, defense, religion / spirituality / philosophy, science fiction).

 

Computer Models for Forecasting and Demographic Analysis.  Dr. Caldwell developed the first commercially-available general-purpose Box-Jenkins computer-forecasting package for prediction, forecasting, and control of stochastic (time series) processes (described at http://www.foundationwebsite.org/BoxJenkins.pdf  , http://www.foundationwebsite.org/TIMESVol1TechnicalBackground.pdf ), and microcomputer software for making demographic projections (cohort-component, synthetic estimation) (described at http://www.foundationwebsite.org/DestCapINTL.pdf ; similar to USAID’s RAPID population-projection program, but extended to handle multiple regions and ethnic groups).  For the US Department of Health and Human Services, he directed the project to develop a prototype microsimulation forecasting model and a statistical reporting system to provide the data required by the model.  The model -- called MICROSIM -- was developed to forecast caseloads and expenditures for HHS programs under various policy assumptions.

 

Technical Training.

 

Dr. Caldwell has developed and presented a number of statistics courses relating to monitoring and evaluation (Statistical Methods for Monitoring and Evaluation: A Comprehensive Survey Course).  These courses have been presented on an advertised basis and as in-house courses at client facilities (US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Opinion Research Center; Bahamas Department of Statistics).  Course notes for this course are posted at Internet websites

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse1&2SampleSurvey3DayCourse.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse3ReviewOfStatisticalInference.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse4&5CausalInferenceAndMatching.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse6&7StatisticalDesignAndAnalysisForEvaluation2DayCourse.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse8SampleSizeDetermination.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse9MissingData.pdf

http://www.foundationwebsite.org/StatCourse10SmallAreaEstimation.pdf

 

An article describing Dr. Caldwell’s approach to the design of analytical surveys (e.g., for impact evaluation of economic and social development programs) is posted at http://www.foundationwebsite.org/SampleSurveyDesignForEvaluation.pdf , and a computer program for determining sample sizes for complex surveys is posted at  http://www.foundationwebsite.org/JGCSampleSizeProgramV53_20130917.accde  (a Microsoft Access program).

 

Education:

 

     PhD, Statistics, 1966, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

     BS, Mathematics, 1962, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA

 

Personal Information:

 

Date of birth: 23 March 1942

Nationality: United States of America / Canada

   

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