POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARUBA Historical data: Population (1965): 55000. Population (1970): 57000. Population (1975): 58000. Population (1980): 60000. Population (1985): 63000. Population (1990): 66000. Population (1995): 79000. Population (2000): 93000. Population (2005): 105412. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 19000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 20000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 116816. Population (2015): 127209. Population (2020): 136659. Population (2025): 145273. Population (2030): 153174. Population (2035): 160487. Population (2040): 167327. Population (2045): 173798. Population (2050): 179989. Population (2055): 185977. Population (2060): 191826. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 20000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 87242. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 116816. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANDORRA Historical data: Population (1965): 13000. Population (1970): 19000. Population (1975): 26000. Population (1980): 33000. Population (1985): 44000. Population (1990): 53000. Population (1995): 64000. Population (2000): 66000. Population (2005): 72005. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 45000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 16000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 76687. Population (2015): 80975. Population (2020): 84936. Population (2025): 88634. Population (2030): 92123. Population (2035): 95455. Population (2040): 98670. Population (2045): 101805. Population (2050): 104889. Population (2055): 107947. Population (2060): 110999. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 16000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 57515. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 76687. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AFGHANISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): 11264000. Population (1970): 12721000. Population (1975): 14373000. Population (1980): 15117000. Population (1985): 13527000. Population (1990): 13799000. Population (1995): 19217000. Population (2000): 21391000. Population (2005): 25254288. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 4.9808 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 65209000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7910000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1958000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28788705. Population (2015): 32046148. Population (2020): 35018679. Population (2025): 37721579. Population (2030): 40183150. Population (2035): 42437389. Population (2040): 44519226. Population (2045): 46461742. Population (2050): 48294750. Population (2055): 50044267. Population (2060): 51732510. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 79100000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7910000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2821860. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28219. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1693116. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28219. G. Minimal-regret population: 28219. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1958000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1958000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 25855454. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7910000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 28219. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1958000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1424000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 26655432. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7910000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1693116. Minimal-regret population (2020): 28219. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): KABUL (1424) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANGOLA Historical data: Population (1965): 5180000. Population (1970): 5588000. Population (1975): 6187000. Population (1980): 7048000. Population (1985): 8299000. Population (1990): 9340000. Population (1995): 10868000. Population (2000): 12386000. Population (2005): 14391851. Total fertility rate (2003): 7.0000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.0093 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 674. Land area (2003, hectares): 124670000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 475000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 16282815. Population (2015): 18019302. Population (2020): 19601323. Population (2025): 21039811. Population (2030): 22351500. Population (2035): 23555351. Population (2040): 24670295. Population (2045): 25713965. Population (2050): 26702081. Population (2055): 27648264. Population (2060): 28564086. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070238. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10702. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642143. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10702. G. Minimal-regret population: 10702. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 475000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 475000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 15571153. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10702. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 475000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 16282815. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642143. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10702. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ALBANIA Historical data: Population (1965): 1870000. Population (1970): 2136000. Population (1975): 2401000. Population (1980): 2671000. Population (1985): 2957000. Population (1990): 3289000. Population (1995): 3185000. Population (2000): 3113000. Population (2005): 3184286. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2290 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5950 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 652. Land area (2003, hectares): 2740000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 578000. Number of plant species (1994): 2965 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 244000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3248999. Population (2015): 3318644. Population (2020): 3392644. Population (2025): 3470557. Population (2030): 3552054. Population (2035): 3636884. Population (2040): 3724867. Population (2045): 3815871. Population (2050): 3909805. Population (2055): 4006613. Population (2060): 4106263. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5780000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 578000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 206199. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2062. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 123719. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2062. G. Minimal-regret population: 2062. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 244000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 244000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3000096. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 578000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2062. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 244000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3248999. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 578000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 123719. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2062. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANGUILLA Historical data: Population (1965): 6000. Population (1970): 7000. Population (1975): 7000. Population (1980): 7000. Population (1985): 7000. Population (1990): 9000. Population (1995): 10000. Population (2000): 11000. Population (2005): 12920. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 14475. Population (2015): 15897. Population (2020): 17191. Population (2025): 18368. Population (2030): 19444. Population (2035): 20434. Population (2040): 21356. Population (2045): 22223. Population (2050): 23047. Population (2055): 23840. Population (2060): 24611. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 13027. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 14475. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NETH ANTILLES Historical data: Population (1965): 146000. Population (1970): 159000. Population (1975): 166000. Population (1980): 174000. Population (1985): 182000. Population (1990): 188000. Population (1995): 205000. Population (2000): 215000. Population (2005): 224199. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7714 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 6767. Land area (2003, hectares): 80000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 94000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 232533. Population (2015): 240547. Population (2020): 248335. Population (2025): 255974. Population (2030): 263528. Population (2035): 271051. Population (2040): 278587. Population (2045): 286171. Population (2050): 293834. Population (2055): 301600. Population (2060): 309491. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 94000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 94000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 125908. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 94000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 232533. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1712. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: U ARAB EMIRAT Historical data: Population (1965): 144000. Population (1970): 225000. Population (1975): 505000. Population (1980): 1015000. Population (1985): 1552000. Population (1990): 2035000. Population (1995): 2497000. Population (2000): 2820000. Population (2005): 3104692. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.9970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 7.3670 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9505. Land area (2003, hectares): 8360000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 50000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 736000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3363834. Population (2015): 3599547. Population (2020): 3814796. Population (2025): 4012796. Population (2030): 4196688. Population (2035): 4369352. Population (2040): 4533339. Population (2045): 4690840. Population (2050): 4843712. Population (2055): 4993508. Population (2060): 5141515. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 50000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 17837. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 178. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 10702. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 178. G. Minimal-regret population: 178. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 736000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 736000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2372332. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 50000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 178. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 736000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 509000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2678135. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 50000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 10702. Minimal-regret population (2020): 178. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARGENTINA Historical data: Population (1965): 22283000. Population (1970): 23962000. Population (1975): 26049000. Population (1980): 28094000. Population (1985): 30305000. Population (1990): 32527000. Population (1995): 34768000. Population (2000): 37074000. Population (2005): 39290475. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4320 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7968 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1559. Land area (2003, hectares): 273669000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 33700000. Number of plant species (1994): 9000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 32 City population (1993): 23683000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 41333861. Population (2015): 43231340. Population (2020): 45012679. Population (2025): 46704191. Population (2030): 48328544. Population (2035): 49904921. Population (2040): 51449366. Population (2045): 52975194. Population (2050): 54493407. Population (2055): 56013079. Population (2060): 57541702. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 337000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 33700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 12022335. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 120223. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 7213401. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 120223. G. Minimal-regret population: 120223. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 32 City population: 23683000. Number of cities targeted: 32 City population destroyed: 23683000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 13178378. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 33700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 120223. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 32 City population: 23683000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 14866000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 23660449. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 33700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 7213401. Minimal-regret population (2020): 120223. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BUENOS AIRES (10686), Cordoba (1198), La Matanza (1112), Rosario (1096), Mendoza (774) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARMENIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 3324000. Population (2000): 3112000. Population (2005): 3033484. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.1500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4025 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 650. Land area (2003, hectares): 2820000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 495000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1631000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2995694. Population (2015): 2983633. Population (2020): 2991205. Population (2025): 3014060. Population (2030): 3049032. Population (2035): 3093785. Population (2040): 3146572. Population (2045): 3206074. Population (2050): 3271291. Population (2055): 3341462. Population (2060): 3416009. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 4950000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 495000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 176589. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1766. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 105954. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1766. G. Minimal-regret population: 1766. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1631000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1631000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1525785. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 495000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1766. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1631000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1254000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1865549. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 495000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 105954. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1766. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): YEREVAN (1254) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AM SAMOA Historical data: Population (1965): 24000. Population (1970): 27000. Population (1975): 30000. Population (1980): 33000. Population (1985): 39000. Population (1990): 47000. Population (1995): 52000. Population (2000): 58000. Population (2005): 63928. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 20000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 3000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 70162. Population (2015): 75833. Population (2020): 80993. Population (2025): 85711. Population (2030): 90057. Population (2035): 94101. Population (2040): 97906. Population (2045): 101527. Population (2050): 105011. Population (2055): 108399. Population (2060): 111724. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 3000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 66114. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 70162. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANTIGUA & BAR Historical data: Population (1965): 60000. Population (1970): 65000. Population (1975): 62000. Population (1980): 63000. Population (1985): 64000. Population (1990): 63000. Population (1995): 67000. Population (2000): 72000. Population (2005): 75118. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.7023 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 44000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 22000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 78382. Population (2015): 81463. Population (2020): 84405. Population (2025): 87245. Population (2030): 90014. Population (2035): 92739. Population (2040): 95441. Population (2045): 98138. Population (2050): 100844. Population (2055): 103571. Population (2060): 106331. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 22000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 22000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 52644. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 22000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 78382. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1712. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AUSTRALIA Historical data: Population (1965): 11393000. Population (1970): 12535000. Population (1975): 13900000. Population (1980): 14569000. Population (1985): 15641000. Population (1990): 16888000. Population (1995): 18072000. Population (2000): 19153000. Population (2005): 20103056. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1036 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5794. Land area (2003, hectares): 768230000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 50304000. Number of plant species (1994): 15000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 14 City population (1993): 13000000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20985314. Population (2015): 21817331. Population (2020): 22610977. Population (2025): 23376394. Population (2030): 24122125. Population (2035): 24855286. Population (2040): 25581770. Population (2045): 26306444. Population (2050): 27033322. Population (2055): 27765719. Population (2060): 28506388. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 503040000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 50304000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 17945743. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 179457. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 10767446. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 179457. G. Minimal-regret population: 179457. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 14 City population: 13000000. Number of cities targeted: 14 City population destroyed: 13000000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5889637. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 50304000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 179457. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 14 City population: 13000000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 11776000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7310953. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 50304000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 10767446. Minimal-regret population (2020): 179457. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Sydney (3657), Melbourne (3081), Adelaide (1804), Brisbane (1302), Perth (1193), Newcastle (429), CANBERRA (310) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AUSTRIA Historical data: Population (1965): 7271000. Population (1970): 7467000. Population (1975): 7579000. Population (1980): 7549000. Population (1985): 7578000. Population (1990): 7729000. Population (1995): 8047000. Population (2000): 8102000. Population (2005): 8136350. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2971 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3828. Land area (2003, hectares): 8273000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1399000. Number of plant species (1994): 2950 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 6 City population (1993): 3515000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 8208589. Population (2015): 8311722. Population (2020): 8439915. Population (2025): 8588793. Population (2030): 8755052. Population (2035): 8936181. Population (2040): 9130269. Population (2045): 9335859. Population (2050): 9551847. Population (2055): 9777402. Population (2060): 10011903. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 13990000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1399000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 499087. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4991. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 299452. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4991. G. Minimal-regret population: 4991. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 6 City population: 3515000. Number of cities targeted: 6 City population destroyed: 3515000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4623006. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1399000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4991. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 6 City population: 3515000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2044000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6123545. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1399000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 299452. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4991. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): WIEN (2044) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AZERBAIJAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 7790000. Population (2000): 8157000. Population (2005): 8504899. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7437 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1376. Land area (2003, hectares): 8660000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1700000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1665000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 8836575. Population (2015): 9153592. Population (2020): 9459912. Population (2025): 9758864. Population (2030): 10053216. Population (2035): 10345260. Population (2040): 10636888. Population (2045): 10929661. Population (2050): 11224868. Population (2055): 11523581. Population (2060): 11826695. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 17000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 606468. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6065. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 363881. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6065. G. Minimal-regret population: 6065. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1665000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1665000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6947885. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6065. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1665000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1149000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7533208. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 363881. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6065. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BAKU (1149) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BURUNDI Historical data: Population (1965): 3213000. Population (1970): 3514000. Population (1975): 3680000. Population (1980): 4130000. Population (1985): 4873000. Population (1990): 5609000. Population (1995): 6024000. Population (2000): 6267000. Population (2005): 7103227. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.6700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8910 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2568000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 900000. Number of plant species (1994): 2500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 235000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7840408. Population (2015): 8511621. Population (2020): 9122015. Population (2025): 9678988. Population (2030): 10190734. Population (2035): 10665338. Population (2040): 11110277. Population (2045): 11532186. Population (2050): 11936798. Population (2055): 12328972. Population (2060): 12712777. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 9000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 900000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 321071. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3211. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 192643. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3211. G. Minimal-regret population: 3211. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 235000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7534549. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 900000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3211. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7840408. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 900000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 192643. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3211. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BELGIUM Historical data: Population (1965): 9795000. Population (1970): 9995000. Population (1975): 10160000. Population (1980): 10223000. Population (1985): 10225000. Population (1990): 10345000. Population (1995): 10542000. Population (2000): 10686000. Population (2005): 10834531. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.6100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4153 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5582. Land area (2003, hectares): 3282000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 842000. Number of plant species (1994): 1400 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 3406000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11010700. Population (2015): 11212069. Population (2020): 11434743. Population (2025): 11675762. Population (2030): 11932871. Population (2035): 12204354. Population (2040): 12488911. Population (2045): 12785567. Population (2050): 13093600. Population (2055): 13412485. Population (2060): 13741858. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8420000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 842000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 300380. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3004. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 180228. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3004. G. Minimal-regret population: 3004. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3406000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 3406000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7453269. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 842000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3004. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3406000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 2402000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 8501907. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 842000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 180228. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3004. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BRUXELLES (BRUSSEL) (954), Antwerpen (668), Liege (Luik) (485), Charleroi (295) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BENIN Historical data: Population (1965): 2430000. Population (1970): 2705000. Population (1975): 3046000. Population (1980): 3459000. Population (1985): 4014000. Population (1990): 4650000. Population (1995): 5470000. Population (2000): 6222000. Population (2005): 7061612. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.2000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5327 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 339. Land area (2003, hectares): 11062000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000000. Number of plant species (1994): 2000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 950000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7851242. Population (2015): 8571545. Population (2020): 9226486. Population (2025): 9823083. Population (2030): 10369658. Population (2035): 10874709. Population (2040): 11346258. Population (2045): 11791517. Population (2050): 12216771. Population (2055): 12627380. Population (2060): 13027852. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713492. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7135. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428095. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7135. G. Minimal-regret population: 7135. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 950000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 950000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6487681. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7135. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 950000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7851242. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428095. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7135. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BURKINA FASO Historical data: Population (1965): 4892000. Population (1970): 5441000. Population (1975): 6094000. Population (1980): 6820000. Population (1985): 7731000. Population (1990): 8921000. Population (1995): 10302000. Population (2000): 11905000. Population (2005): 13710995. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.1900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3237 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 27360000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3948000. Number of plant species (1994): 1100 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 903000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 15432180. Population (2015): 17009193. Population (2020): 18444668. Population (2025): 19750223. Population (2030): 20942022. Population (2035): 22037756. Population (2040): 23054775. Population (2045): 24009056. Population (2050): 24914749. Population (2055): 25784051. Population (2060): 26627294. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 39480000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3948000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1408433. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14084. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 845060. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14084. G. Minimal-regret population: 14084. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 903000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 903000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14079505. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3948000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14084. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 903000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 15432180. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3948000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 845060. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14084. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BANGLADESH Historical data: Population (1965): 58493000. Population (1970): 66292000. Population (1975): 75171000. Population (1980): 85004000. Population (1985): 96646000. Population (1990): 109402000. Population (1995): 123406000. Population (2000): 137952000. Population (2005): 152280905. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8820 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7408 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 158. Land area (2003, hectares): 13017000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8085000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 18 City population (1993): 7645000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 165377660. Population (2015): 177287366. Population (2020): 188153326. Population (2025): 198134898. Population (2030): 207389674. Population (2035): 216063560. Population (2040): 224286162. Population (2045): 232169488. Population (2050): 239808540. Population (2055): 247282888. Population (2060): 254658625. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80850000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8085000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2884290. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28843. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1730574. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28843. G. Minimal-regret population: 28843. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 18 City population: 7645000. Number of cities targeted: 18 City population destroyed: 7645000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 155132517. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8085000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 28843. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 18 City population: 7645000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 4761000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 158997395. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8085000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1730574. Minimal-regret population (2020): 28843. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): DHAKA (3397), Chittagong (1364) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BULGARIA Historical data: Population (1965): 8204000. Population (1970): 8490000. Population (1975): 8721000. Population (1980): 8862000. Population (1985): 8960000. Population (1990): 8718000. Population (1995): 8406000. Population (2000): 8099000. Population (2005): 7791583. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2300 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.5863 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2360. Land area (2003, hectares): 11055000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4424000. Number of plant species (1994): 3505 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 10 City population (1993): 3105000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7594528. Population (2015): 7487936. Population (2020): 7448587. Population (2025): 7460368. Population (2030): 7511827. Population (2035): 7594655. Population (2040): 7702731. Population (2045): 7831484. Population (2050): 7977472. Population (2055): 8138087. Population (2060): 8311343. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 44240000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4424000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1578244. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15782. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 946946. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15782. G. Minimal-regret population: 15782. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3105000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 3105000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4789269. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4424000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 15782. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3105000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1221000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6491397. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4424000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 946946. Minimal-regret population (2020): 15782. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SOFIA (1221) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BAHRAIN Historical data: Population (1965): 191000. Population (1970): 220000. Population (1975): 272000. Population (1980): 347000. Population (1985): 413000. Population (1990): 490000. Population (1995): 587000. Population (2000): 677000. Population (2005): 755362. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9604 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9891. Land area (2003, hectares): 71000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 140000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 827180. Population (2015): 892493. Population (2020): 951947. Population (2025): 1006345. Population (2030): 1056523. Population (2035): 1103277. Population (2040): 1147331. Population (2045): 1189317. Population (2050): 1229777. Population (2055): 1269168. Population (2060): 1307871. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 140000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 140000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 629897. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 140000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 140000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 629897. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MANAMA (140) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BAHAMAS, THE Historical data: Population (1965): 140000. Population (1970): 170000. Population (1975): 189000. Population (1980): 210000. Population (1985): 234000. Population (1990): 255000. Population (1995): 283000. Population (2000): 303000. Population (2005): 320689. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1190 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0848 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1001000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 172000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 337651. Population (2015): 353380. Population (2020): 368127. Population (2025): 382109. Population (2030): 395518. Population (2035): 408515. Population (2040): 421234. Population (2045): 433787. Population (2050): 446267. Population (2055): 458751. Population (2060): 471301. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-