POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARUBA Historical data: Population (1965): 55000. Population (1970): 57000. Population (1975): 58000. Population (1980): 60000. Population (1985): 63000. Population (1990): 66000. Population (1995): 79000. Population (2000): 93000. Population (2005): 105412. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 19000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 20000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 116816. Population (2015): 127209. Population (2020): 136659. Population (2025): 145273. Population (2030): 153174. Population (2035): 160487. Population (2040): 167327. Population (2045): 173798. Population (2050): 179989. Population (2055): 185977. Population (2060): 191826. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 20000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 87242. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 116816. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANDORRA Historical data: Population (1965): 13000. Population (1970): 19000. Population (1975): 26000. Population (1980): 33000. Population (1985): 44000. Population (1990): 53000. Population (1995): 64000. Population (2000): 66000. Population (2005): 72005. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 45000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 16000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 76687. Population (2015): 80975. Population (2020): 84936. Population (2025): 88634. Population (2030): 92123. Population (2035): 95455. Population (2040): 98670. Population (2045): 101805. Population (2050): 104889. Population (2055): 107947. Population (2060): 110999. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 16000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 57515. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 76687. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AFGHANISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): 11264000. Population (1970): 12721000. Population (1975): 14373000. Population (1980): 15117000. Population (1985): 13527000. Population (1990): 13799000. Population (1995): 19217000. Population (2000): 21391000. Population (2005): 25254288. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 4.9808 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 65209000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7910000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1958000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28788705. Population (2015): 32046148. Population (2020): 35018679. Population (2025): 37721579. Population (2030): 40183150. Population (2035): 42437389. Population (2040): 44519226. Population (2045): 46461742. Population (2050): 48294750. Population (2055): 50044267. Population (2060): 51732510. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 79100000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7910000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2821860. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28219. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1693116. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28219. G. Minimal-regret population: 28219. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1958000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1958000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 25855454. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7910000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 28219. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1958000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1424000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 26655432. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7910000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1693116. Minimal-regret population (2020): 28219. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): KABUL (1424) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANGOLA Historical data: Population (1965): 5180000. Population (1970): 5588000. Population (1975): 6187000. Population (1980): 7048000. Population (1985): 8299000. Population (1990): 9340000. Population (1995): 10868000. Population (2000): 12386000. Population (2005): 14391851. Total fertility rate (2003): 7.0000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.0093 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 674. Land area (2003, hectares): 124670000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 475000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 16282815. Population (2015): 18019302. Population (2020): 19601323. Population (2025): 21039811. Population (2030): 22351500. Population (2035): 23555351. Population (2040): 24670295. Population (2045): 25713965. Population (2050): 26702081. Population (2055): 27648264. Population (2060): 28564086. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070238. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10702. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642143. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10702. G. Minimal-regret population: 10702. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 475000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 475000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 15571153. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10702. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 475000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 16282815. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642143. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10702. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ALBANIA Historical data: Population (1965): 1870000. Population (1970): 2136000. Population (1975): 2401000. Population (1980): 2671000. Population (1985): 2957000. Population (1990): 3289000. Population (1995): 3185000. Population (2000): 3113000. Population (2005): 3184286. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2290 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5950 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 652. Land area (2003, hectares): 2740000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 578000. Number of plant species (1994): 2965 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 244000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3248999. Population (2015): 3318644. Population (2020): 3392644. Population (2025): 3470557. Population (2030): 3552054. Population (2035): 3636884. Population (2040): 3724867. Population (2045): 3815871. Population (2050): 3909805. Population (2055): 4006613. Population (2060): 4106263. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5780000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 578000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 206199. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2062. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 123719. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2062. G. Minimal-regret population: 2062. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 244000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 244000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3000096. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 578000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2062. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 244000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3248999. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 578000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 123719. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2062. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANGUILLA Historical data: Population (1965): 6000. Population (1970): 7000. Population (1975): 7000. Population (1980): 7000. Population (1985): 7000. Population (1990): 9000. Population (1995): 10000. Population (2000): 11000. Population (2005): 12920. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 14475. Population (2015): 15897. Population (2020): 17191. Population (2025): 18368. Population (2030): 19444. Population (2035): 20434. Population (2040): 21356. Population (2045): 22223. Population (2050): 23047. Population (2055): 23840. Population (2060): 24611. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 13027. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 14475. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NETH ANTILLES Historical data: Population (1965): 146000. Population (1970): 159000. Population (1975): 166000. Population (1980): 174000. Population (1985): 182000. Population (1990): 188000. Population (1995): 205000. Population (2000): 215000. Population (2005): 224199. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7714 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 6767. Land area (2003, hectares): 80000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 94000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 232533. Population (2015): 240547. Population (2020): 248335. Population (2025): 255974. Population (2030): 263528. Population (2035): 271051. Population (2040): 278587. Population (2045): 286171. Population (2050): 293834. Population (2055): 301600. Population (2060): 309491. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 94000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 94000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 125908. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 94000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 232533. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1712. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:08 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: U ARAB EMIRAT Historical data: Population (1965): 144000. Population (1970): 225000. Population (1975): 505000. Population (1980): 1015000. Population (1985): 1552000. Population (1990): 2035000. Population (1995): 2497000. Population (2000): 2820000. Population (2005): 3104692. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.9970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 7.3670 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9505. Land area (2003, hectares): 8360000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 50000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 736000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3363834. Population (2015): 3599547. Population (2020): 3814796. Population (2025): 4012796. Population (2030): 4196688. Population (2035): 4369352. Population (2040): 4533339. Population (2045): 4690840. Population (2050): 4843712. Population (2055): 4993508. Population (2060): 5141515. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 50000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 17837. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 178. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 10702. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 178. G. Minimal-regret population: 178. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 736000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 736000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2372332. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 50000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 178. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 736000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 509000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2678135. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 50000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 10702. Minimal-regret population (2020): 178. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARGENTINA Historical data: Population (1965): 22283000. Population (1970): 23962000. Population (1975): 26049000. Population (1980): 28094000. Population (1985): 30305000. Population (1990): 32527000. Population (1995): 34768000. Population (2000): 37074000. Population (2005): 39290475. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4320 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7968 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1559. Land area (2003, hectares): 273669000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 33700000. Number of plant species (1994): 9000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 32 City population (1993): 23683000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 41333861. Population (2015): 43231340. Population (2020): 45012679. Population (2025): 46704191. Population (2030): 48328544. Population (2035): 49904921. Population (2040): 51449366. Population (2045): 52975194. Population (2050): 54493407. Population (2055): 56013079. Population (2060): 57541702. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 337000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 33700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 12022335. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 120223. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 7213401. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 120223. G. Minimal-regret population: 120223. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 32 City population: 23683000. Number of cities targeted: 32 City population destroyed: 23683000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 13178378. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 33700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 120223. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 32 City population: 23683000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 14866000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 23660449. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 33700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 7213401. Minimal-regret population (2020): 120223. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BUENOS AIRES (10686), Cordoba (1198), La Matanza (1112), Rosario (1096), Mendoza (774) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ARMENIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 3324000. Population (2000): 3112000. Population (2005): 3033484. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.1500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4025 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 650. Land area (2003, hectares): 2820000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 495000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1631000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2995694. Population (2015): 2983633. Population (2020): 2991205. Population (2025): 3014060. Population (2030): 3049032. Population (2035): 3093785. Population (2040): 3146572. Population (2045): 3206074. Population (2050): 3271291. Population (2055): 3341462. Population (2060): 3416009. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 4950000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 495000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 176589. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1766. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 105954. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1766. G. Minimal-regret population: 1766. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1631000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1631000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1525785. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 495000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1766. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1631000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1254000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1865549. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 495000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 105954. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1766. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): YEREVAN (1254) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AM SAMOA Historical data: Population (1965): 24000. Population (1970): 27000. Population (1975): 30000. Population (1980): 33000. Population (1985): 39000. Population (1990): 47000. Population (1995): 52000. Population (2000): 58000. Population (2005): 63928. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 20000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 3000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 70162. Population (2015): 75833. Population (2020): 80993. Population (2025): 85711. Population (2030): 90057. Population (2035): 94101. Population (2040): 97906. Population (2045): 101527. Population (2050): 105011. Population (2055): 108399. Population (2060): 111724. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 3000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 66114. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 70162. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ANTIGUA & BAR Historical data: Population (1965): 60000. Population (1970): 65000. Population (1975): 62000. Population (1980): 63000. Population (1985): 64000. Population (1990): 63000. Population (1995): 67000. Population (2000): 72000. Population (2005): 75118. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.7023 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 44000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 22000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 78382. Population (2015): 81463. Population (2020): 84405. Population (2025): 87245. Population (2030): 90014. Population (2035): 92739. Population (2040): 95441. Population (2045): 98138. Population (2050): 100844. Population (2055): 103571. Population (2060): 106331. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 22000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 22000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 52644. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 22000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 78382. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1712. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AUSTRALIA Historical data: Population (1965): 11393000. Population (1970): 12535000. Population (1975): 13900000. Population (1980): 14569000. Population (1985): 15641000. Population (1990): 16888000. Population (1995): 18072000. Population (2000): 19153000. Population (2005): 20103056. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1036 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5794. Land area (2003, hectares): 768230000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 50304000. Number of plant species (1994): 15000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 14 City population (1993): 13000000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20985314. Population (2015): 21817331. Population (2020): 22610977. Population (2025): 23376394. Population (2030): 24122125. Population (2035): 24855286. Population (2040): 25581770. Population (2045): 26306444. Population (2050): 27033322. Population (2055): 27765719. Population (2060): 28506388. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 503040000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 50304000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 17945743. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 179457. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 10767446. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 179457. G. Minimal-regret population: 179457. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 14 City population: 13000000. Number of cities targeted: 14 City population destroyed: 13000000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5889637. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 50304000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 179457. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 14 City population: 13000000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 11776000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7310953. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 50304000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 10767446. Minimal-regret population (2020): 179457. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Sydney (3657), Melbourne (3081), Adelaide (1804), Brisbane (1302), Perth (1193), Newcastle (429), CANBERRA (310) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AUSTRIA Historical data: Population (1965): 7271000. Population (1970): 7467000. Population (1975): 7579000. Population (1980): 7549000. Population (1985): 7578000. Population (1990): 7729000. Population (1995): 8047000. Population (2000): 8102000. Population (2005): 8136350. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2971 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3828. Land area (2003, hectares): 8273000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1399000. Number of plant species (1994): 2950 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 6 City population (1993): 3515000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 8208589. Population (2015): 8311722. Population (2020): 8439915. Population (2025): 8588793. Population (2030): 8755052. Population (2035): 8936181. Population (2040): 9130269. Population (2045): 9335859. Population (2050): 9551847. Population (2055): 9777402. Population (2060): 10011903. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 13990000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1399000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 499087. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4991. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 299452. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4991. G. Minimal-regret population: 4991. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 6 City population: 3515000. Number of cities targeted: 6 City population destroyed: 3515000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4623006. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1399000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4991. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 6 City population: 3515000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2044000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6123545. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1399000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 299452. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4991. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): WIEN (2044) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: AZERBAIJAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 7790000. Population (2000): 8157000. Population (2005): 8504899. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7437 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1376. Land area (2003, hectares): 8660000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1700000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1665000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 8836575. Population (2015): 9153592. Population (2020): 9459912. Population (2025): 9758864. Population (2030): 10053216. Population (2035): 10345260. Population (2040): 10636888. Population (2045): 10929661. Population (2050): 11224868. Population (2055): 11523581. Population (2060): 11826695. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 17000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 606468. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6065. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 363881. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6065. G. Minimal-regret population: 6065. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1665000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1665000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6947885. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6065. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1665000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1149000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7533208. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 363881. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6065. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BAKU (1149) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BURUNDI Historical data: Population (1965): 3213000. Population (1970): 3514000. Population (1975): 3680000. Population (1980): 4130000. Population (1985): 4873000. Population (1990): 5609000. Population (1995): 6024000. Population (2000): 6267000. Population (2005): 7103227. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.6700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8910 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2568000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 900000. Number of plant species (1994): 2500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 235000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7840408. Population (2015): 8511621. Population (2020): 9122015. Population (2025): 9678988. Population (2030): 10190734. Population (2035): 10665338. Population (2040): 11110277. Population (2045): 11532186. Population (2050): 11936798. Population (2055): 12328972. Population (2060): 12712777. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 9000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 900000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 321071. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3211. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 192643. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3211. G. Minimal-regret population: 3211. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 235000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7534549. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 900000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3211. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7840408. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 900000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 192643. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3211. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BELGIUM Historical data: Population (1965): 9795000. Population (1970): 9995000. Population (1975): 10160000. Population (1980): 10223000. Population (1985): 10225000. Population (1990): 10345000. Population (1995): 10542000. Population (2000): 10686000. Population (2005): 10834531. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.6100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4153 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5582. Land area (2003, hectares): 3282000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 842000. Number of plant species (1994): 1400 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 3406000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11010700. Population (2015): 11212069. Population (2020): 11434743. Population (2025): 11675762. Population (2030): 11932871. Population (2035): 12204354. Population (2040): 12488911. Population (2045): 12785567. Population (2050): 13093600. Population (2055): 13412485. Population (2060): 13741858. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8420000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 842000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 300380. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3004. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 180228. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3004. G. Minimal-regret population: 3004. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3406000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 3406000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7453269. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 842000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3004. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3406000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 2402000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 8501907. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 842000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 180228. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3004. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BRUXELLES (BRUSSEL) (954), Antwerpen (668), Liege (Luik) (485), Charleroi (295) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BENIN Historical data: Population (1965): 2430000. Population (1970): 2705000. Population (1975): 3046000. Population (1980): 3459000. Population (1985): 4014000. Population (1990): 4650000. Population (1995): 5470000. Population (2000): 6222000. Population (2005): 7061612. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.2000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5327 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 339. Land area (2003, hectares): 11062000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000000. Number of plant species (1994): 2000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 950000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7851242. Population (2015): 8571545. Population (2020): 9226486. Population (2025): 9823083. Population (2030): 10369658. Population (2035): 10874709. Population (2040): 11346258. Population (2045): 11791517. Population (2050): 12216771. Population (2055): 12627380. Population (2060): 13027852. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713492. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7135. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428095. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7135. G. Minimal-regret population: 7135. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 950000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 950000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6487681. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7135. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 950000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7851242. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428095. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7135. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BURKINA FASO Historical data: Population (1965): 4892000. Population (1970): 5441000. Population (1975): 6094000. Population (1980): 6820000. Population (1985): 7731000. Population (1990): 8921000. Population (1995): 10302000. Population (2000): 11905000. Population (2005): 13710995. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.1900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3237 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 27360000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3948000. Number of plant species (1994): 1100 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 903000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 15432180. Population (2015): 17009193. Population (2020): 18444668. Population (2025): 19750223. Population (2030): 20942022. Population (2035): 22037756. Population (2040): 23054775. Population (2045): 24009056. Population (2050): 24914749. Population (2055): 25784051. Population (2060): 26627294. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 39480000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3948000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1408433. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14084. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 845060. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14084. G. Minimal-regret population: 14084. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 903000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 903000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14079505. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3948000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14084. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 903000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 15432180. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3948000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 845060. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14084. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BANGLADESH Historical data: Population (1965): 58493000. Population (1970): 66292000. Population (1975): 75171000. Population (1980): 85004000. Population (1985): 96646000. Population (1990): 109402000. Population (1995): 123406000. Population (2000): 137952000. Population (2005): 152280905. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8820 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7408 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 158. Land area (2003, hectares): 13017000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8085000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 18 City population (1993): 7645000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 165377660. Population (2015): 177287366. Population (2020): 188153326. Population (2025): 198134898. Population (2030): 207389674. Population (2035): 216063560. Population (2040): 224286162. Population (2045): 232169488. Population (2050): 239808540. Population (2055): 247282888. Population (2060): 254658625. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80850000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8085000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2884290. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28843. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1730574. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 28843. G. Minimal-regret population: 28843. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 18 City population: 7645000. Number of cities targeted: 18 City population destroyed: 7645000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 155132517. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8085000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 28843. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 18 City population: 7645000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 4761000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 158997395. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8085000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1730574. Minimal-regret population (2020): 28843. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): DHAKA (3397), Chittagong (1364) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BULGARIA Historical data: Population (1965): 8204000. Population (1970): 8490000. Population (1975): 8721000. Population (1980): 8862000. Population (1985): 8960000. Population (1990): 8718000. Population (1995): 8406000. Population (2000): 8099000. Population (2005): 7791583. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2300 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.5863 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2360. Land area (2003, hectares): 11055000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4424000. Number of plant species (1994): 3505 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 10 City population (1993): 3105000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7594528. Population (2015): 7487936. Population (2020): 7448587. Population (2025): 7460368. Population (2030): 7511827. Population (2035): 7594655. Population (2040): 7702731. Population (2045): 7831484. Population (2050): 7977472. Population (2055): 8138087. Population (2060): 8311343. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 44240000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4424000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1578244. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15782. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 946946. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15782. G. Minimal-regret population: 15782. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3105000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 3105000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4789269. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4424000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 15782. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3105000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1221000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6491397. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4424000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 946946. Minimal-regret population (2020): 15782. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SOFIA (1221) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BAHRAIN Historical data: Population (1965): 191000. Population (1970): 220000. Population (1975): 272000. Population (1980): 347000. Population (1985): 413000. Population (1990): 490000. Population (1995): 587000. Population (2000): 677000. Population (2005): 755362. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9604 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9891. Land area (2003, hectares): 71000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 140000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 827180. Population (2015): 892493. Population (2020): 951947. Population (2025): 1006345. Population (2030): 1056523. Population (2035): 1103277. Population (2040): 1147331. Population (2045): 1189317. Population (2050): 1229777. Population (2055): 1269168. Population (2060): 1307871. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 140000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 140000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 629897. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 140000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 140000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 629897. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MANAMA (140) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BAHAMAS, THE Historical data: Population (1965): 140000. Population (1970): 170000. Population (1975): 189000. Population (1980): 210000. Population (1985): 234000. Population (1990): 255000. Population (1995): 283000. Population (2000): 303000. Population (2005): 320689. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1190 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0848 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1001000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 172000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 337651. Population (2015): 353380. Population (2020): 368127. Population (2025): 382109. Population (2030): 395518. Population (2035): 408515. Population (2040): 421234. Population (2045): 433787. Population (2050): 446267. Population (2055): 458751. Population (2060): 471301. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 80000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2854. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1712. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29. G. Minimal-regret population: 29. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 172000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 172000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 132435. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 172000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 337651. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1712. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BOSNIA & HERZ Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 3420000. Population (2000): 3977000. Population (2005): 4296482. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6822 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1052. Land area (2003, hectares): 5073000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 690000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 559000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4560686. Population (2015): 4803343. Population (2020): 5028282. Population (2025): 5239051. Population (2030): 5438805. Population (2035): 5630271. Population (2040): 5815763. Population (2045): 5997220. Population (2050): 6176252. Population (2055): 6354192. Population (2060): 6532136. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 6900000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 690000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 246155. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2462. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 147693. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2462. G. Minimal-regret population: 2462. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 559000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 559000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3815240. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 690000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2462. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 559000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4560686. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 690000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 147693. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2462. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BELARUS Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 10252000. Population (2000): 10034000. Population (2005): 9826327. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4447 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2463. Land area (2003, hectares): 20748000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 6131000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 4214000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9718615. Population (2015): 9690815. Population (2020): 9724194. Population (2025): 9805340. Population (2030): 9924472. Population (2035): 10074349. Population (2040): 10249549. Population (2045): 10445978. Population (2050): 10660528. Population (2055): 10890833. Population (2060): 11135091. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 61310000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 6131000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2187209. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21872. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1312325. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21872. G. Minimal-regret population: 21872. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4214000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 4214000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5723858. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 6131000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 21872. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4214000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 2159000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7671942. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 6131000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1312325. Minimal-regret population (2020): 21872. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MINSK (1658), Gomel (501) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BELIZE Historical data: Population (1965): 107000. Population (1970): 123000. Population (1975): 134000. Population (1980): 144000. Population (1985): 163000. Population (1990): 186000. Population (1995): 213000. Population (2000): 240000. Population (2005): 267054. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.1470 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.1548 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2280000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 65000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 44000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 292193. Population (2015): 315054. Population (2020): 335867. Population (2025): 354917. Population (2030): 372498. Population (2035): 388888. Population (2040): 404341. Population (2045): 419077. Population (2050): 433286. Population (2055): 447126. Population (2060): 460729. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 650000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 65000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 23188. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 232. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 13913. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 232. G. Minimal-regret population: 232. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 44000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 44000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 231834. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 65000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 232. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 44000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 292193. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 65000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 13913. Minimal-regret population (2020): 232. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BERMUDA Historical data: Population (1965): 52000. Population (1970): 58000. Population (1975): 63000. Population (1980): 68000. Population (1985): 71000. Population (1990): 74000. Population (1995): 77000. Population (2000): 80000. Population (2005): 82754. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2826 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 5000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 85779. Population (2015): 88695. Population (2020): 91535. Population (2025): 94325. Population (2030): 97088. Population (2035): 99843. Population (2040): 102606. Population (2045): 105389. Population (2050): 108203. Population (2055): 111056. Population (2060): 113957. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 84665. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 85779. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BOLIVIA Historical data: Population (1965): 3748000. Population (1970): 4212000. Population (1975): 4759000. Population (1980): 5355000. Population (1985): 5964000. Population (1990): 6669000. Population (1995): 7482000. Population (2000): 8317000. Population (2005): 9118957. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.7470 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9353 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 507. Land area (2003, hectares): 108438000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2900000. Number of plant species (1994): 16500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 2640000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9851163. Population (2015): 10517506. Population (2020): 11126800. Population (2025): 11688332. Population (2030): 12211029. Population (2035): 12703009. Population (2040): 13171401. Population (2045): 13622316. Population (2050): 14060910. Population (2055): 14491487. Population (2060): 14917613. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 29000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2900000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1034563. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10346. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 620738. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10346. G. Minimal-regret population: 10346. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2640000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 2640000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6375211. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2900000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10346. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2640000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1406000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7999955. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2900000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 620738. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10346. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): LA PAZ (711), Santa Cruz (695) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BRAZIL Historical data: Population (1965): 84328000. Population (1970): 95988000. Population (1975): 108124000. Population (1980): 121614000. Population (1985): 135683000. Population (1990): 148809000. Population (1995): 160545000. Population (2000): 171796000. Population (2005): 182704618. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1390 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.2025 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1114. Land area (2003, hectares): 845651000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 58865000. Number of plant species (1994): 55000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 187 City population (1993): 70343000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 192738929. Population (2015): 202019274. Population (2020): 210692834. Population (2025): 218891504. Population (2030): 226729949. Population (2035): 234305819. Population (2040): 241701124. Population (2045): 248984100. Population (2050): 256211207. Population (2055): 263429037. Population (2060): 270676031. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 588650000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 58865000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 20999844. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 209998. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 12599907. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 209998. G. Minimal-regret population: 209998. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 187 City population: 70343000. Number of cities targeted: 187 City population destroyed: 70343000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 108290117. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 58865000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 209998. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 187 City population: 70343000. Number of cities targeted: 86 City population destroyed: 56485000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 124927048. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 58865000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 12599907. Minimal-regret population (2020): 209998. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Sao Paolo (9480), Rio de Janeiro (5336), Salvador (2056), Belo Horizonte (2049), Fortaleza (1758), BRASILIA (1596), Recife (1290), Curitiba (1290), Nova Iguacu (1286), Porto Alegre (1263), Belem (1246), Manaus (1011), Goiania (921), Campinas (846), Guarulhos (781), Sao Goncalo (748), Sao Luis (696), Duque de Caxias (665), Maceio (628), Santo Andre (614), Natal (607), Teresina (598), Sao Bernardo do Campo (565), Osasco (563), Campo Grande (526), Joao Pessoa (497), Jaboatao (482), Contagem (449), Sao Jose dos Campos (443), Ribeirao Preto (431), Santos (429), Sao Joao de Meriti (425), Niteroi (416), Feira de Santana (406), Aracaju (401), Cuiaba (401), Campos dos Goytacazes (389), Londrina (388), Juiz de Fora (386), Sorocuba (377), Uberlandia (367), Joinville (346), Olindo (341), Campina Grande (326), Jundiai (313), Diadema (304), Maua (293), Caxias do Sul (291), Pelotas (289), Porto Velho (286), Piracicaba (284), Carapicuiba (283), Sao Jose do Rio Preto (283), Canoas (279), Imperatriz (276), Cariacico (274), Moji das Cruzes (273), Santarem (265), Vila Velha (265), Bauru (260), Vitoria (258), Sao Vicente (255), Florianopolis (255), Petropolis (255), Montes Claros (247), Maringa (240), Anapolis (239), Ponta Grossa (234), Franca (233), Governador Valadares (230), Sumare (226), Vitori da Conquista (225), Iheus (223), Serra (222), Volta Redonda (220), Santa Maria (218), Caruaru (214), Blumenou (212), Uberaba (211), Paulista (211), Limeira (207), Luziania (207), Taubate (205), Guaruja (203), Novo Hamburgo (201), Rio Branco (197) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BARBADOS Historical data: Population (1965): 235000. Population (1970): 239000. Population (1975): 246000. Population (1980): 249000. Population (1985): 253000. Population (1990): 257000. Population (1995): 263000. Population (2000): 267000. Population (2005): 271285. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4445 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 43000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 16000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 7000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 275567. Population (2015): 280505. Population (2020): 285996. Population (2025): 291961. Population (2030): 298340. Population (2035): 305088. Population (2040): 312170. Population (2045): 319560. Population (2050): 327239. Population (2055): 335194. Population (2060): 343413. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 160000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 16000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 5708. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 57. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3425. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 57. G. Minimal-regret population: 57. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 7000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 7000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 268233. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 16000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 57. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 7000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 275567. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 16000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3425. Minimal-regret population (2020): 57. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BRUNEI DARUSS Historical data: Population (1965): 103000. Population (1970): 130000. Population (1975): 161000. Population (1980): 193000. Population (1985): 223000. Population (1990): 257000. Population (1995): 295000. Population (2000): 334000. Population (2005): 373188. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4680 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.6463 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 6048. Land area (2003, hectares): 527000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 50000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 409119. Population (2015): 441799. Population (2020): 471541. Population (2025): 498743. Population (2030): 523819. Population (2035): 547168. Population (2040): 569152. Population (2045): 590089. Population (2050): 610251. Population (2055): 629867. Population (2060): 649130. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 50000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 50000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 339776. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 50000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 409119. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BHUTAN Historical data: Population (1965): 957000. Population (1970): 1059000. Population (1975): 1178000. Population (1980): 1318000. Population (1985): 1486000. Population (1990): 1696000. Population (1995): 1814000. Population (2000): 2063000. Population (2005): 2382258. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.0930 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.6271 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 4700000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 145000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 9000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2685807. Population (2015): 2964127. Population (2020): 3217532. Population (2025): 3447979. Population (2030): 3658266. Population (2035): 3851489. Population (2040): 4030702. Population (2045): 4198727. Population (2050): 4358070. Population (2055): 4510892. Population (2060): 4659027. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1450000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 145000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 51728. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 517. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 31037. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 517. G. Minimal-regret population: 517. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 9000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2672482. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 145000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 517. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2685807. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 145000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 31037. Minimal-regret population (2020): 517. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BR VIRGIN IS Historical data: Population (1965): 9000. Population (1970): 10000. Population (1975): 11000. Population (1980): 12000. Population (1985): 14000. Population (1990): 17000. Population (1995): 19000. Population (2000): 20000. Population (2005): 22283. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 15000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 24076. Population (2015): 25707. Population (2020): 27199. Population (2025): 28573. Population (2030): 29852. Population (2035): 31056. Population (2040): 32202. Population (2045): 33305. Population (2050): 34378. Population (2055): 35432. Population (2060): 36474. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 22809. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 24076. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: BOTSWANA Historical data: Population (1965): 604000. Population (1970): 700000. Population (1975): 830000. Population (1980): 987000. Population (1985): 1166000. Population (1990): 1354000. Population (1995): 1550000. Population (2000): 1725000. Population (2005): 1828007. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.7360 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6230 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 56673000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 370000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 137000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1918763. Population (2015): 2003358. Population (2020): 2083097. Population (2025): 2159124. Population (2030): 2232414. Population (2035): 2303790. Population (2040): 2373938. Population (2045): 2443426. Population (2050): 2512724. Population (2055): 2582218. Population (2060): 2652227. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3700000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 370000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 131996. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1320. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 79198. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1320. G. Minimal-regret population: 1320. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 137000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 137000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1749169. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 370000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1320. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 137000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1918763. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 370000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 79198. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1320. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CENT AFRICAN Historical data: Population (1965): 1685000. Population (1970): 1871000. Population (1975): 2056000. Population (1980): 2306000. Population (1985): 2641000. Population (1990): 2943000. Population (1995): 3354000. Population (2000): 3715000. Population (2005): 3960768. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.5970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5781 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 62298000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1930000. Number of plant species (1994): 3600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 474000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4181267. Population (2015): 4385007. Population (2020): 4575225. Population (2025): 4754830. Population (2030): 4926358. Population (2035): 5091973. Population (2040): 5253494. Population (2045): 5412435. Population (2050): 5570049. Population (2055): 5727372. Population (2060): 5885257. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 19300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1930000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 688519. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6885. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 413112. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6885. G. Minimal-regret population: 6885. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 474000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 474000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3590354. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1930000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6885. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 474000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4181267. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1930000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 413112. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6885. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CANADA Historical data: Population (1965): 19678000. Population (1970): 21717000. Population (1975): 23142000. Population (1980): 24516000. Population (1985): 25843000. Population (1990): 27701000. Population (1995): 29354000. Population (2000): 30769000. Population (2005): 31993775. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.5200 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.8509 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 7973. Land area (2003, hectares): 922097000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 45740000. Number of plant species (1994): 2920 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 48 City population (1993): 21286000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 33155476. Population (2015): 34276136. Population (2020): 35368217. Population (2025): 36442101. Population (2030): 37506387. Population (2035): 38568170. Population (2040): 39633305. Population (2045): 40706630. Population (2050): 41792161. Population (2055): 42893247. Population (2060): 44012710. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 457400000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 45740000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 16317555. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 163176. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 9790533. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 163176. G. Minimal-regret population: 163176. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 48 City population: 21286000. Number of cities targeted: 48 City population destroyed: 21286000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9112842. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 45740000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 163176. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 48 City population: 21286000. Number of cities targeted: 25 City population destroyed: 18306000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 12478766. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 45740000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 9790533. Minimal-regret population (2020): 163176. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Toronto (3893), Montreal (3127), Vancouver (1603), OTTAWA (921), Edmonton (840), Calgary (754), Winnipeg (652), Quebec (646), Hamilton (600), North York (563), Scarborough (525), Mississauga (463), London (382), St. Catharines (365), Kitchener (356), Halifax (321), Laval (314), Etibicoke (310), Victoria (288), Windsor (262), Surrey (245), Oshawa (240), Brampton (234), Saskatoon (210), Regina (192) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SWITZERLAND Historical data: Population (1965): 5857000. Population (1970): 6187000. Population (1975): 6339000. Population (1980): 6319000. Population (1985): 6536000. Population (1990): 6834000. Population (1995): 7118000. Population (2000): 7173000. Population (2005): 7175670. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.4100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.8197 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3745. Land area (2003, hectares): 3955000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 412000. Number of plant species (1994): 1650 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 2644000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7214897. Population (2015): 7286435. Population (2020): 7383844. Population (2025): 7502332. Population (2030): 7638299. Population (2035): 7789020. Population (2040): 7952424. Population (2045): 8126932. Population (2050): 8311344. Population (2055): 8504749. Population (2060): 8706465. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 4120000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 412000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 146979. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1470. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 88188. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1470. G. Minimal-regret population: 1470. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2644000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 2644000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4534904. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 412000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1470. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2644000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1746000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5445129. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 412000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 88188. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1470. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Zurich (915), Geneve (429), Basel (402) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CHILE Historical data: Population (1965): 8572000. Population (1970): 9496000. Population (1975): 10337000. Population (1980): 11147000. Population (1985): 12047000. Population (1990): 13100000. Population (1995): 14210000. Population (2000): 15224000. Population (2005): 16174579. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1797 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1638. Land area (2003, hectares): 74880000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1982000. Number of plant species (1994): 5125 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 20 City population (1993): 7799000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 17049184. Population (2015): 17858967. Population (2020): 18616742. Population (2025): 19333947. Population (2030): 20020496. Population (2035): 20684819. Population (2040): 21333987. Population (2045): 21973876. Population (2050): 22609350. Population (2055): 23244418. Population (2060): 23882392. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 19820000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1982000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 707070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7071. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 424242. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7071. G. Minimal-regret population: 7071. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 20 City population: 7799000. Number of cities targeted: 20 City population destroyed: 7799000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7691930. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1982000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7071. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 20 City population: 7799000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 4385000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 11788053. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1982000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 424242. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7071. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SANTIAGO (4385) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CHINA Historical data: Population (1965): 733092000. Population (1970): 834871000. Population (1975): 932457000. Population (1980): 1004168000. Population (1985): 1075937000. Population (1990): 1161381000. Population (1995): 1226030000. Population (2000): 1282473000. Population (2005): 1330947121. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.8800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6229 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 967. Land area (2003, hectares): 932742000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 143625000. Number of plant species (1994): 30000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 371 City population (1993): 332046000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1377217657. Population (2015): 1422124255. Population (2020): 1466123529. Population (2025): 1509594409. Population (2030): 1552849979. Population (2035): 1596148509. Population (2040): 1639703225. Population (2045): 1683690706. Population (2050): 1728257952. Population (2055): 1773528240. Population (2060): 1819605933. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1436250000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 143625000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 51237623. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 512376. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 30742574. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 512376. G. Minimal-regret population: 512376. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 371 City population: 332046000. Number of cities targeted: 371 City population destroyed: 332046000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1004225468. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 143625000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 512376. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 371 City population: 332046000. Number of cities targeted: 270 City population destroyed: 307808000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1031452372. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 143625000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 30742574. Minimal-regret population (2020): 512376. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Shanghai (8206), BEIJING (PEKING) (7362), Tianjin (5804), Qingdo (5125), Shenyang (4655), Guangzhou (3918), Wuhan (3833), Tai'an (3825), Harbin (3597), Chengdu (3484), Dalian (3474), Ningbo (3351), Suzhou (3273), Yantai (3205), Zaozhuang (3192), Wuxi (3182), Chongqing (3123), Weifang (3038), Xiangfan (2986), Changchun (2981), Xi'an (2873), Yangzhou (2769), Huaiyin (2614), Nanjiang (2611), Hangzhou (2590), Gaicheng (2488), Zibo (2484), Anshan (2479), Jinan (2404), Jilin (2252), Taiyan (2225), Jinhua (2216), Liupanshui (1844), Pingdingshan (1828), Xuzhou (Jiangsu Sheng) (1827), Hengyang (1815), Xinxiang (1770), Handan (1769), Zhengzhou (1752), Dongwan (1737), Weihai (1733), Mianyang (1701), Guiyang (1665), Wenzhou (1650), Lanzhou (1618), Kumming (1612), Nantong (1602), Linyi (1590), Jiaozuo (1578), Xiangtan (1531), Zhuzhou (1522), Tangshan (1485), Tiamen (1484), Jining (Shandong Sheng) (1466), Dongshan (1413), Changde (1410), Qiqihar (1401), Fuzhou (Fujian Sheng) (1396), Siping (1395), Dengzhou (1391), Fushun (1388), Pinxiang (1388), Guikong (1377), Shijianzhuang (1372), Xuchang (1369), Xiantao (1361), Jiaxing (1359), Jinxi (1350), Changsha (1329), Yulin (Hunan) (1323), Chaozhou (1294), Neijiang (1289), Deyang (1287), Zhenjiang (1280), Datong (1277), Shaoxing (1271), Nanchang (1262), Suinin (1260), Xiaocan (1255), Botou (1229), Chungshan (1228), Huainan (1228), Luoyang (1202), Tonghua (1199), Haozhou (1198), Urumqi (1161), Nanning (1159), Heze (1155), Hefei (1100), Tieling (1098), Langfang (1078), Yueyang (1078), Macheng (1057), Zhanjiang (1049), Tianshui (1040), Rizhao (1028), Huzhou (1028), Dingzhou (1025), Fengcheng (1019), Jingmen (1017), Lianyuan (1007), Fulin (1005), Daqing (997), Qinzhou (992), Chaoyang (990), Sifen (987), Linhai (981), Zigong (977), Qingyuan (963), Yongzhou (946), Fuyu (945), Hohhoit (938), Benxi (938), Ezhou (892), Huangyan (889), Shantou (885), Yichun (Heilongjiang Sheng) (882), Shenzhen (875), Linchuan (873), Yangjiang (869), Wuwei (864), Guangnyuan (860), Ankang (859), Liaocheng (838), Yichun (Jiangxi Sheng) (836), Jixi (835), Gaoxiong (828), Qujing (824), Guangshui (817), Beidong (797), Jiujiang (791), Suihua (770), Xuanzhou (769), Weinan (766), Lichuan (764), Chaohu (760), Quanzhou (753), Liuzhou (751), Mudangiang (751), Jiamusi (745), Honghu (744), Fuxin (743), Shuangcheng (739), Xianyang (737), Jinzhou (736), Hailun (734), Changzhou (730), Quzhou (727), Boshan (723), Hunjiang (722), Zhangjiakou (720), Enshi (713), Xining (698), Bengbu (695), Kaifeng (693), Gaocheng (685), Yibin (685), Jinchang (677), Linqing (673), Tongliao (673), Zhoushan (672), Qianjiang (668), Dandong (661), Anshun (658), Wuxue (649), Hegang (647), Yuanjiang (644), Dongying (644), Jieshou (642), Liaoyang (640), Xiamen (639), Panzhihua (632), Zhaotang (620), Anyang (617), Donglin (608), Xinyu (608), Baoding (595), Xinyi (593), Sanming (586), Yingcheng (584), Linfen (583), Xinji (582), Shishou (579), Yangquan (575), Yingkow (572), Guichi (571), Zhenchu (569), Buizhou (563), Anlu (558), Guilin (557), Wuhu (553), Changzhi (552), Huangshi (546), Heyuan (545), Lianyungang (537), Huaibei (536), Shangzhi (534), Maoming (533), Fuan (526), Shaoyang (523), Qinhuangdo (519), Taonan (511), Shangzhou (511), Yinchuan (502), Boutou (495), Yuncheng (492), Yichang (492), Zhangshu (489), Baihua (488), Zuozhou (487), Xichang (481), Dunhua (477), Tainan (475), Shuanayashan (470), Shouzhou (470), Yuci (467), Nanping (467), Anqing (464), Danjiangkou (460), Xiannin (455), Anda (453), Baoji (452), Taizhong (448), Dangyang (446), Qitaihe (445), Ma'anshan (445), Hanzhong (442), Longyan (434), Xinzhu (434), Dali (432), Zhangye (431), Foshan (429), Nangong (429), Panjin (428), Linhe (426), Yiyang (418), Puqi (417), Duyan (417), Chuzhou (417), Yakumshi (416), Tongchuan (414), Luzhou (412), Chuxiong (411), Liaoyuan (411), Haikou (410), Dayuan (408), Lengshuitan (404), Da'an (404), Zalantun (402), Shiyan (401), Xiangtan (Hebei Sheng) (396), Jiaojing (395), Shahe (394), Zunyi (392), Ganzhou (391), Pingliang (386), Gejiu (385), Zicheng (385), Baiyin (383), Kaili (382), Hebi (377), Huangshan (377), Nanyang (375), Jingdezhen (370), Yulin (Shanxi) (369), Mishan (367), Chengde (366), Zixing (361), Ninde (361), Shashi (360) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: COTE D'IVOIRE Historical data: Population (1965): 4527000. Population (1970): 5521000. Population (1975): 6754000. Population (1980): 8427000. Population (1985): 10460000. Population (1990): 12505000. Population (1995): 14365000. Population (2000): 15827000. Population (2005): 17136075. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.5440 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9330 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 401. Land area (2003, hectares): 31800000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3100000. Number of plant species (1994): 3517 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 5 City population (1993): 2658000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 18327936. Population (2015): 19416607. Population (2020): 20418430. Population (2025): 21349299. Population (2030): 22223782. Population (2035): 23054735. Population (2040): 23853217. Population (2045): 24628580. Population (2050): 25388641. Population (2055): 26139886. Population (2060): 26887671. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 31000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3100000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1105912. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11059. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 663547. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11059. G. Minimal-regret population: 11059. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 5 City population: 2658000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 2658000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14936662. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3100000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11059. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 5 City population: 2658000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1929000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 15866774. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3100000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 663547. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11059. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Abidjan (1929) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CAMEROON Historical data: Population (1965): 5891000. Population (1970): 6631000. Population (1975): 7563000. Population (1980): 8754000. Population (1985): 10067000. Population (1990): 11661000. Population (1995): 13414000. Population (2000): 15117000. Population (2005): 16596040. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.5950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9978 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 417. Land area (2003, hectares): 46540000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5960000. Number of plant species (1994): 8000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1911000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 17935551. Population (2015): 19154474. Population (2020): 20268830. Population (2025): 21295567. Population (2030): 22251000. Population (2035): 23149990. Population (2040): 24005597. Population (2045): 24829022. Population (2050): 25629721. Population (2055): 26415586. Population (2060): 27193160. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 59600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5960000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2126205. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21262. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1275723. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21262. G. Minimal-regret population: 21262. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1911000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1911000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 15380397. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5960000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 21262. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1911000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1684000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 15683913. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5960000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1275723. Minimal-regret population (2020): 21262. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Douala (1030), YAOUNDE (654) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CONGO Historical data: Population (1965): 1144000. Population (1970): 1323000. Population (1975): 1544000. Population (1980): 1804000. Population (1985): 2116000. Population (1990): 2494000. Population (1995): 2936000. Population (2000): 3447000. Population (2005): 3897366. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.2900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.7141 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 252. Land area (2003, hectares): 34150000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 175000. Number of plant species (1994): 4350 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 894000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4308278. Population (2015): 4682540. Population (2020): 5022862. Population (2025): 5333272. Population (2030): 5618292. Population (2035): 5882414. Population (2040): 6129809. Population (2045): 6364187. Population (2050): 6588760. Population (2055): 6806254. Population (2060): 7018954. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1750000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 175000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 62431. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 624. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 37458. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 624. G. Minimal-regret population: 624. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 894000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 894000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2996425. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 175000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 624. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 894000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4308278. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 175000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 37458. Minimal-regret population (2020): 624. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: COLOMBIA Historical data: Population (1965): 19591000. Population (1970): 22561000. Population (1975): 25381000. Population (1980): 28447000. Population (1985): 31659000. Population (1990): 34970000. Population (1995): 38542000. Population (2000): 42120000. Population (2005): 45547560. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4790 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.6965 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 608. Land area (2003, hectares): 103870000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2516000. Number of plant species (1994): 50000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 31 City population (1993): 13072000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 48672900. Population (2015): 51529074. Population (2020): 54159294. Population (2025): 56605336. Population (2030): 58905349. Population (2035): 61092911. Population (2040): 63196862. Population (2045): 65241563. Population (2050): 67247360. Population (2055): 69231124. Population (2060): 71206790. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 25160000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2516000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 897573. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8976. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 538544. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8976. G. Minimal-regret population: 8976. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 31 City population: 13072000. Number of cities targeted: 31 City population destroyed: 13072000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 32164879. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2516000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 8976. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 31 City population: 13072000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 9971000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 36080988. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2516000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 538544. Minimal-regret population (2020): 8976. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SANTA FE DE BOGOTA (4177), Medellin (1452), Cali (1369), Barranquilla (917), Cartagena (514), Cucuta (384), Bucaramanga (352), Manizales (283), Ibaque (281), Pereira (242) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: COMOROS Historical data: Population (1965): 240000. Population (1970): 275000. Population (1975): 318000. Population (1980): 387000. Population (1985): 456000. Population (1990): 527000. Population (1995): 609000. Population (2000): 705000. Population (2005): 810586. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.0460 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3954 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 223000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 80000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 17000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 911098. Population (2015): 1003139. Population (2020): 1086903. Population (2025): 1163093. Population (2030): 1232668. Population (2035): 1296667. Population (2040): 1356104. Population (2045): 1411910. Population (2050): 1464911. Population (2055): 1515814. Population (2060): 1565220. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 800000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 80000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 28540. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 285. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 17124. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 285. G. Minimal-regret population: 285. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 17000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 17000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 885665. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 80000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 285. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 17000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 911098. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 80000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 17124. Minimal-regret population (2020): 285. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: COOK ISLANDS Historical data: Population (1965): 19000. Population (1970): 21000. Population (1975): 19000. Population (1980): 18000. Population (1985): 18000. Population (1990): 18000. Population (1995): 19000. Population (2000): 18000. Population (2005): 17692. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 23000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 9000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 17581. Population (2015): 17595. Population (2020): 17706. Population (2025): 17893. Population (2030): 18141. Population (2035): 18439. Population (2040): 18779. Population (2045): 19153. Population (2050): 19559. Population (2055): 19991. Population (2060): 20446. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 9000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9253. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 17581. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CAPE VERDE Historical data: Population (1965): 229000. Population (1970): 267000. Population (1975): 278000. Population (1980): 289000. Population (1985): 316000. Population (1990): 349000. Population (1995): 391000. Population (2000): 436000. Population (2005): 480022. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.4570 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5119 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 403000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 39000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 62000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 520238. Population (2015): 556816. Population (2020): 590214. Population (2025): 620931. Population (2030): 649453. Population (2035): 676227. Population (2040): 701650. Population (2045): 726062. Population (2050): 749752. Population (2055): 772961. Population (2060): 795889. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 390000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 39000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 13913. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 139. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 8348. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 139. G. Minimal-regret population: 139. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 62000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 62000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 437745. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 39000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 139. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 62000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 520238. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 39000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 8348. Minimal-regret population (2020): 139. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: COSTA RICA Historical data: Population (1965): 1582000. Population (1970): 1821000. Population (1975): 2051000. Population (1980): 2347000. Population (1985): 2697000. Population (1990): 3076000. Population (1995): 3475000. Population (2000): 3929000. Population (2005): 4328196. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2983 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5839 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 930. Land area (2003, hectares): 5106000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 225000. Number of plant species (1994): 11000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 395000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4690117. Population (2015): 5019310. Population (2020): 5319905. Population (2025): 5596390. Population (2030): 5853146. Population (2035): 6094201. Population (2040): 6323114. Population (2045): 6542950. Population (2050): 6756304. Population (2055): 6965346. Population (2060): 7171876. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 2250000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 225000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 80268. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 803. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 48161. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 803. G. Minimal-regret population: 803. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 395000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 395000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4156996. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 225000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 803. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 395000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4690117. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 225000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 48161. Minimal-regret population (2020): 803. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CUBA Historical data: Population (1965): 7754000. Population (1970): 8520000. Population (1975): 9306000. Population (1980): 9710000. Population (1985): 10115000. Population (1990): 10628000. Population (1995): 10964000. Population (2000): 11202000. Population (2005): 11380601. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.6200 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6644 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1285. Land area (2003, hectares): 10982000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3630000. Number of plant species (1994): 6004 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 4133000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11586837. Population (2015): 11815459. Population (2020): 12063321. Population (2025): 12328030. Population (2030): 12607764. Population (2035): 12901141. Population (2040): 13207126. Population (2045): 13524948. Population (2050): 13854048. Population (2055): 14194033. Population (2060): 14544644. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 36300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3630000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1294987. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12950. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 776992. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12950. G. Minimal-regret population: 12950. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4133000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 4133000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7219052. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3630000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 12950. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4133000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2143000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 9322099. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3630000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 776992. Minimal-regret population (2020): 12950. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): LA HABANA (2143) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CAYMAN IS Historical data: Population (1965): 9000. Population (1970): 11000. Population (1975): 14000. Population (1980): 17000. Population (1985): 21000. Population (1990): 26000. Population (1995): 31000. Population (2000): 37000. Population (2005): 41907. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 26000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 14000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 46430. Population (2015): 50552. Population (2020): 54300. Population (2025): 57716. Population (2030): 60850. Population (2035): 63751. Population (2040): 66465. Population (2045): 69032. Population (2050): 71489. Population (2055): 73866. Population (2060): 76187. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 14000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 25462. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 46430. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CYPRUS Historical data: Population (1965): 582000. Population (1970): 615000. Population (1975): 609000. Population (1980): 611000. Population (1985): 647000. Population (1990): 681000. Population (1995): 744000. Population (2000): 783000. Population (2005): 815683. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6498 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3290. Land area (2003, hectares): 924000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 72000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 314000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 847415. Population (2015): 877754. Population (2020): 907077. Population (2025): 935702. Population (2030): 963893. Population (2035): 991869. Population (2040): 1019809. Population (2045): 1047862. Population (2050): 1076152. Population (2055): 1104780. Population (2060): 1133832. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 720000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 72000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 25686. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 257. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 15411. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 257. G. Minimal-regret population: 257. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 314000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 314000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 489769. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 72000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 257. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 314000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 847415. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 72000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 15411. Minimal-regret population (2020): 257. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CZECH REP Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 10331000. Population (2000): 10269000. Population (2005): 10231093. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.1800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0098 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4076. Land area (2003, hectares): 7728000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3076000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 2517000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10257947. Population (2015): 10337015. Population (2020): 10457498. Population (2025): 10611416. Population (2030): 10792802. Population (2035): 10997158. Population (2040): 11221067. Population (2045): 11461932. Population (2050): 11717772. Population (2055): 11987083. Population (2060): 12268731. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30760000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3076000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1097350. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10974. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 658410. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10974. G. Minimal-regret population: 10974. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2517000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 2517000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7758745. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3076000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10974. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2517000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1600000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 8669261. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3076000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 658410. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10974. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GERMANY Historical data: Population (1965): 75964000. Population (1970): 78169000. Population (1975): 78674000. Population (1980): 78289000. Population (1985): 77685000. Population (1990): 79433000. Population (1995): 81661000. Population (2000): 82282000. Population (2005): 82683523. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3400 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0400 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4196. Land area (2003, hectares): 34895000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 11813000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 84 City population (1993): 25956000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 83416658. Population (2015): 84463937. Population (2020): 85766027. Population (2025): 87278446. Population (2030): 88967579. Population (2035): 90807892. Population (2040): 92779942. Population (2045): 94868923. Population (2050): 97063604. Population (2055): 99355520. Population (2060): 101738368. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 118130000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 11813000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 4214239. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 42142. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2528543. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 42142. G. Minimal-regret population: 42142. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 84 City population: 25956000. Number of cities targeted: 84 City population destroyed: 25956000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 56902621. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 11813000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 42142. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 84 City population: 25956000. Number of cities targeted: 17 City population destroyed: 14274000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 68835776. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 11813000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2528543. Minimal-regret population (2020): 42142. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BERLIN (3454), Hamburg (1675), Munchen (1241), Koln (959), Frankfurt am Main (661), Essen (628), Dortmund (601), Stuttgart (597), Dusseldorf (577), Bremen (553), Duisburg (538), Hannover (521), Leipzig (500), Nurnberg (499), Dresden (483), Bochum (400), Wuppertal (387) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: DJIBOUTI Historical data: Population (1965): 114000. Population (1970): 157000. Population (1975): 216000. Population (1980): 327000. Population (1985): 381000. Population (1990): 528000. Population (1995): 568000. Population (2000): 666000. Population (2005): 727659. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.1970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7156 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2318000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 62000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 781203. Population (2015): 830024. Population (2020): 874826. Population (2025): 916312. Population (2030): 955140. Population (2035): 991894. Population (2040): 1027082. Population (2045): 1061136. Population (2050): 1094417. Population (2055): 1127225. Population (2060): 1159810. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 62000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 62000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 695931. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 62000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 781203. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: DOMINICA Historical data: Population (1965): 65000. Population (1970): 71000. Population (1975): 72000. Population (1980): 74000. Population (1985): 73000. Population (1990): 72000. Population (1995): 75000. Population (2000): 78000. Population (2005): 78911. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.1881 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 75000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 8000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 80617. Population (2015): 82425. Population (2020): 84327. Population (2025): 86315. Population (2030): 88382. Population (2035): 90524. Population (2040): 92739. Population (2045): 95025. Population (2050): 97380. Population (2055): 99804. Population (2060): 102296. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 50000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1784. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1070. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. G. Minimal-regret population: 18. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 8000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 8000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 72017. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 18. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 8000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 80617. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1070. Minimal-regret population (2020): 18. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: DENMARK Historical data: Population (1965): 4758000. Population (1970): 4929000. Population (1975): 5060000. Population (1980): 5123000. Population (1985): 5114000. Population (1990): 5140000. Population (1995): 5228000. Population (2000): 5322000. Population (2005): 5396573. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7600 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2397 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3634. Land area (2003, hectares): 4243000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2292000. Number of plant species (1994): 1200 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1943000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5486072. Population (2015): 5587784. Population (2020): 5699847. Population (2025): 5820847. Population (2030): 5949707. Population (2035): 6085606. Population (2040): 6227924. Population (2045): 6376197. Population (2050): 6530081. Population (2055): 6689329. Population (2060): 6853768. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 22920000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2292000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 817661. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8177. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 490597. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8177. G. Minimal-regret population: 8177. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1943000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1943000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3447159. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2292000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 8177. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1943000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1339000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4080974. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2292000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 490597. Minimal-regret population (2020): 8177. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): KOBENHAVN (1339) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: DOMINICAN REP Historical data: Population (1965): 3805000. Population (1970): 4422000. Population (1975): 5047000. Population (1980): 5696000. Population (1985): 6441000. Population (1990): 7058000. Population (1995): 7685000. Population (2000): 8353000. Population (2005): 8994379. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.5970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4498 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 978. Land area (2003, hectares): 4838000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1096000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 2074000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9579915. Population (2015): 10116191. Population (2020): 10611525. Population (2025): 11073785. Population (2030): 11510060. Population (2035): 11926534. Population (2040): 12328486. Population (2045): 12720355. Population (2050): 13105840. Population (2055): 13488001. Population (2060): 13869368. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10960000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1096000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 390993. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3910. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 234596. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3910. G. Minimal-regret population: 3910. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 2074000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 2074000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6994522. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1096000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3910. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 2074000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1541000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7658946. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1096000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 234596. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3910. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ALGERIA Historical data: Population (1965): 11923000. Population (1970): 13746000. Population (1975): 16018000. Population (1980): 18740000. Population (1985): 21887000. Population (1990): 25017000. Population (1995): 27878000. Population (2000): 30245000. Population (2005): 32776975. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.7200 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.6221 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 992. Land area (2003, hectares): 238174000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7665000. Number of plant species (1994): 3100 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 3412000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 35119146. Population (2015): 37256577. Population (2020): 39220787. Population (2025): 41042832. Population (2030): 42751395. Population (2035): 44371916. Population (2040): 45926360. Population (2045): 47433343. Population (2050): 48908450. Population (2055): 50364623. Population (2060): 51812558. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 76650000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7665000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2734457. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 27345. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1640674. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 27345. G. Minimal-regret population: 27345. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3412000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 3412000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 30820900. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7665000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 27345. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3412000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1740000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 32927192. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7665000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1640674. Minimal-regret population (2020): 27345. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ALGER (1740) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ECUADOR Historical data: Population (1965): 5144000. Population (1970): 5970000. Population (1975): 6907000. Population (1980): 7961000. Population (1985): 9099000. Population (1990): 10264000. Population (1995): 11404000. Population (2000): 12420000. Population (2005): 13370357. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6920 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5532 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 720. Land area (2003, hectares): 27684000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1620000. Number of plant species (1994): 18250 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 10 City population (1993): 3668000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 14237574. Population (2015): 15031965. Population (2020): 15765870. Population (2025): 16450945. Population (2030): 17097682. Population (2035): 17715227. Population (2040): 18311383. Population (2045): 18892713. Population (2050): 19464683. Population (2055): 20031816. Population (2060): 20597846. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 16200000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1620000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 577928. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5779. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 346757. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5779. G. Minimal-regret population: 5779. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3668000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 3668000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9658179. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1620000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 5779. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3668000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 2609000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 10980311. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1620000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 346757. Minimal-regret population (2020): 5779. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Guayaquil (1508), QUITO (1101) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: EGYPT Historical data: Population (1965): 31563000. Population (1970): 35285000. Population (1975): 39313000. Population (1980): 43915000. Population (1985): 49668000. Population (1990): 55768000. Population (1995): 61638000. Population (2000): 67784000. Population (2005): 74555488. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.0840 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7732 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 811. Land area (2003, hectares): 99545000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2858000. Number of plant species (1994): 2066 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 23 City population (1993): 18070000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 80852192. Population (2015): 86578961. Population (2020): 91806628. Population (2025): 96612757. Population (2030): 101073433. Population (2035): 105258755. Population (2040): 109230791. Population (2045): 113043062. Population (2050): 116740902. Population (2055): 120362237. Population (2060): 123938554. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 28580000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2858000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1019580. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10196. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 611748. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10196. G. Minimal-regret population: 10196. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 23 City population: 18070000. Number of cities targeted: 23 City population destroyed: 18070000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 57149296. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2858000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10196. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 23 City population: 18070000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 13158000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 63592496. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2858000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 611748. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10196. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ERITREA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 3207000. Population (2000): 3712000. Population (2005): 4419977. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.7910 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1598 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 10100000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 500000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 358000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5106721. Population (2015): 5744257. Population (2020): 6328244. Population (2025): 6859771. Population (2030): 7343211. Population (2035): 7784594. Population (2040): 8190488. Population (2045): 8567325. Population (2050): 8921019. Population (2055): 9256805. Population (2060): 9579190. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 178373. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1784. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 107024. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1784. G. Minimal-regret population: 1784. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 358000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 358000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4536653. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1784. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 358000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5106721. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 107024. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1784. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SPAIN Historical data: Population (1965): 32056000. Population (1970): 33779000. Population (1975): 35596000. Population (1980): 37542000. Population (1985): 38474000. Population (1990): 39303000. Population (1995): 39935000. Population (2000): 40752000. Population (2005): 41338263. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2600 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4490 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3311. Land area (2003, hectares): 49944000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 13019000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 55 City population (1993): 16319000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 42044961. Population (2015): 42841122. Population (2020): 43713447. Population (2025): 44651813. Population (2030): 45648510. Population (2035): 46697683. Population (2040): 47794907. Population (2045): 48936876. Population (2050): 50121159. Population (2055): 51346016. Population (2060): 52610250. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 130190000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 13019000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 4644474. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 46445. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2786685. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 46445. G. Minimal-regret population: 46445. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 55 City population: 16319000. Number of cities targeted: 55 City population destroyed: 16319000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 24863749. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 13019000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 46445. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 55 City population: 16319000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 6598000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 35098357. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 13019000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2786685. Minimal-regret population (2020): 46445. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MADRID (2976), Barcelona (1596), Valencia (749), Sevilla (679), Zaragoza (598) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ESTONIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 1446000. Population (2000): 1367000. Population (2005): 1300166. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.3689 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3299. Land area (2003, hectares): 4227000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 678000. Number of plant species (1994): 1630 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 613000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1256320. Population (2015): 1230408. Population (2020): 1217620. Population (2025): 1214675. Population (2030): 1219277. Population (2035): 1229777. Population (2040): 1244973. Population (2045): 1263975. Population (2050): 1286114. Population (2055): 1310886. Population (2060): 1337908. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 6780000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 678000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 241874. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2419. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 145124. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2419. G. Minimal-regret population: 2419. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 613000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 613000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 723731. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 678000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2419. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 613000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 499000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 822777. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 678000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 145124. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2419. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): TALLINN (499) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ETHIOPIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 57349000. Population (2000): 65590000. Population (2005): 73882608. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.5970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.0550 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 298. Land area (2003, hectares): 100000000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 10712000. Number of plant species (1994): 6500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 10 City population (1993): 3355000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 81526895. Population (2015): 88486694. Population (2020): 94815995. Population (2025): 100591838. Population (2030): 105899342. Population (2035): 110822404. Population (2040): 115438541. Population (2045): 119816519. Population (2050): 124015713. Population (2055): 128086454. Population (2060): 132070878. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 107120000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 10712000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3821462. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 38215. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2292877. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 38215. G. Minimal-regret population: 38215. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3355000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 3355000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 76757453. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 10712000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 38215. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 10 City population: 3355000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2213000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 78380911. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 10712000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2292877. Minimal-regret population (2020): 38215. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ADDIS ABABA (2213) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FINLAND Historical data: Population (1965): 4564000. Population (1970): 4606000. Population (1975): 4711000. Population (1980): 4780000. Population (1985): 4902000. Population (1990): 4986000. Population (1995): 5108000. Population (2000): 5177000. Population (2005): 5229748. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7600 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2497 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 6946. Land area (2003, hectares): 30459000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2191000. Number of plant species (1994): 1040 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 6 City population (1993): 1933000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5299426. Population (2015): 5384280. Population (2020): 5481715. Population (2025): 5589767. Population (2030): 5706942. Population (2035): 5832104. Population (2040): 5964386. Population (2045): 6103132. Population (2050): 6247850. Population (2055): 6398175. Population (2060): 6553839. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 21910000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2191000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 781630. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7816. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 468978. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7816. G. Minimal-regret population: 7816. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 6 City population: 1933000. Number of cities targeted: 6 City population destroyed: 1933000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3293985. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2191000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7816. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 6 City population: 1933000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 977000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4285812. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2191000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 468978. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7816. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): HELSINKI (977) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FIJI Historical data: Population (1965): 464000. Population (1970): 520000. Population (1975): 576000. Population (1980): 634000. Population (1985): 709000. Population (1990): 724000. Population (1995): 768000. Population (2000): 814000. Population (2005): 856975. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.5980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4111 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1827000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 200000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 141000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 897841. Population (2015): 936069. Population (2020): 972236. Population (2025): 1006845. Population (2030): 1040322. Population (2035): 1073026. Population (2040): 1105253. Population (2045): 1137251. Population (2050): 1169222. Population (2055): 1201334. Population (2060): 1233727. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 2000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 200000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 71349. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 713. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 42810. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 713. G. Minimal-regret population: 713. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 141000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 141000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 733003. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 200000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 713. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 141000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 897841. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 200000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 42810. Minimal-regret population (2020): 713. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FALKLAND IS Historical data: Population (1965): 2000. Population (1970): 2000. Population (1975): 2000. Population (1980): 2000. Population (1985): 2000. Population (1990): 2000. Population (1995): 2000. Population (2000): 3000. Population (2005): 3003. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1217000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 2000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3021. Population (2015): 3052. Population (2020): 3093. Population (2025): 3144. Population (2030): 3201. Population (2035): 3264. Population (2040): 3333. Population (2045): 3407. Population (2050): 3484. Population (2055): 3565. Population (2060): 3650. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 0. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3021. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FRANCE Historical data: Population (1965): 48758000. Population (1970): 50772000. Population (1975): 52699000. Population (1980): 53880000. Population (1985): 55284000. Population (1990): 56735000. Population (1995): 58139000. Population (2000): 59296000. Population (2005): 60719745. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.8900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4646 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4513. Land area (2003, hectares): 55010000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 18447000. Number of plant species (1994): 4500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 41 City population (1993): 23528000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 62207709. Population (2015): 63742630. Population (2020): 65323745. Population (2025): 66950676. Population (2030): 68623362. Population (2035): 70341988. Population (2040): 72106948. Population (2045): 73918805. Population (2050): 75778261. Population (2055): 77686136. Population (2060): 79643349. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 184470000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 18447000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 6580891. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 65809. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3948534. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 65809. G. Minimal-regret population: 65809. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 41 City population: 23528000. Number of cities targeted: 41 City population destroyed: 23528000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 37033162. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 18447000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 65809. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 41 City population: 23528000. Number of cities targeted: 13 City population destroyed: 17972000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 42977985. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 18447000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3948534. Minimal-regret population (2020): 65809. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): PARIS (9319), Lyon (1262), Aix-en-Provence (1231), Marseille (1231), Lille (959), Bordeaux (697), Toulouse (650), Nice (517), Nantes (495), Toulon (438), Grenoble (405), Strasbourg (388), Rouen (380) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FAEROE IS Historical data: Population (1965): 37000. Population (1970): 39000. Population (1975): 41000. Population (1980): 43000. Population (1985): 46000. Population (1990): 48000. Population (1995): 44000. Population (2000): 46000. Population (2005): 48748. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 140000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 16000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 51672. Population (2015): 54362. Population (2020): 56860. Population (2025): 59204. Population (2030): 61430. Population (2035): 63568. Population (2040): 65642. Population (2045): 67674. Population (2050): 69682. Population (2055): 71679. Population (2060): 73678. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 16000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 32882. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 16000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 51672. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MICRONESIA Historical data: Population (1965): 52000. Population (1970): 61000. Population (1975): 63000. Population (1980): 73000. Population (1985): 86000. Population (1990): 96000. Population (1995): 107000. Population (2000): 107000. Population (2005): 108940. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.4460 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7656 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 70000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 6000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 110812. Population (2015): 112917. Population (2020): 115222. Population (2025): 117700. Population (2030): 120331. Population (2035): 123099. Population (2040): 125994. Population (2045): 129006. Population (2050): 132129. Population (2055): 135359. Population (2060): 138693. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 6000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 104598. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 110812. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GABON Historical data: Population (1965): 502000. Population (1970): 529000. Population (1975): 601000. Population (1980): 695000. Population (1985): 812000. Population (1990): 953000. Population (1995): 1109000. Population (2000): 1258000. Population (2005): 1372434. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.0480 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1818 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1200. Land area (2003, hectares): 25767000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 325000. Number of plant species (1994): 6500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 57000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1475060. Population (2015): 1568593. Population (2020): 1654363. Population (2025): 1733713. Population (2030): 1807901. Population (2035): 1878052. Population (2040): 1945144. Population (2045): 2010011. Population (2050): 2073349. Population (2055): 2135742. Population (2060): 2197670. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3250000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 325000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 115942. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1159. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 69565. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1159. G. Minimal-regret population: 1159. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 57000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 57000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1399246. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 325000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1159. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 57000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1475060. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 325000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 69565. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1159. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: UNITED KINGDO Historical data: Population (1965): 53716000. Population (1970): 55009000. Population (1975): 55613000. Population (1980): 55723000. Population (1985): 56207000. Population (1990): 56972000. Population (1995): 57913000. Population (2000): 58907000. Population (2005): 59884584. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.6400 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.1687 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3831. Land area (2003, hectares): 24088000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5652000. Number of plant species (1994): 1550 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 222 City population (1993): 46687000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 60985142. Population (2015): 62200554. Population (2020): 63514947. Population (2025): 64916236. Population (2030): 66395225. Population (2035): 67944954. Population (2040): 69560201. Population (2045): 71237100. Population (2050): 72972855. Population (2055): 74765515. Population (2060): 76613799. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 56520000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5652000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2016328. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20163. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1209797. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20163. G. Minimal-regret population: 20163. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 222 City population: 46687000. Number of cities targeted: 222 City population destroyed: 46687000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 11821512. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5652000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 20163. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 222 City population: 46687000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 12302000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 48030552. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5652000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1209797. Minimal-regret population (2020): 20163. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GEORGIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 5352000. Population (2000): 5262000. Population (2005): 5067619. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.1000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.9851 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 494. Land area (2003, hectares): 6949000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 795000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 5 City population (1993): 1923000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4951525. Population (2015): 4891236. Population (2020): 4872619. Population (2025): 4885818. Population (2030): 4923797. Population (2035): 4981435. Population (2040): 5054950. Population (2045): 5141511. Population (2050): 5238984. Population (2055): 5345749. Population (2060): 5460574. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 7950000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 795000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 283613. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2836. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 170168. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2836. G. Minimal-regret population: 2836. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1923000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 1923000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3172418. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 795000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2836. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1923000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1268000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3778406. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 795000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 170168. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2836. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): TBILISI (1268) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GHANA Historical data: Population (1965): 7816000. Population (1970): 8623000. Population (1975): 9913000. Population (1980): 11043000. Population (1985): 13216000. Population (1990): 15277000. Population (1995): 17510000. Population (2000): 19593000. Population (2005): 21777805. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.3990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8101 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 417. Land area (2003, hectares): 22754000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3700000. Number of plant species (1994): 3600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1244000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 23821859. Population (2015): 25680612. Population (2020): 27373029. Population (2025): 28922223. Population (2030): 30352105. Population (2035): 31685402. Population (2040): 32942650. Population (2045): 34141800. Population (2050): 35298196. Population (2055): 36424757. Population (2060): 37532248. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 37000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1319960. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 791976. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. G. Minimal-regret population: 13200. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1244000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1244000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 22129432. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 13200. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1244000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 738000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 22817831. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 791976. Minimal-regret population (2020): 13200. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ACCRA (738) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GIBRALTAR Historical data: Population (1965): 23000. Population (1970): 25000. Population (1975): 25000. Population (1980): 26000. Population (1985): 27000. Population (1990): 27000. Population (1995): 27000. Population (2000): 27000. Population (2005): 27030. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 28000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 27188. Population (2015): 27466. Population (2020): 27840. Population (2025): 28292. Population (2030): 28808. Population (2035): 29380. Population (2040): 29999. Population (2045): 30659. Population (2050): 31357. Population (2055): 32087. Population (2060): 32849. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 28000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 28000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): -1007. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 28000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 27188. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUINEA Historical data: Population (1965): 3489000. Population (1970): 3897000. Population (1975): 4077000. Population (1980): 4688000. Population (1985): 5330000. Population (1990): 6122000. Population (1995): 7321000. Population (2000): 8117000. Population (2005): 8697140. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.0150 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1026 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 24572000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 890000. Number of plant species (1994): 3000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 197000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9221490. Population (2015): 9703598. Population (2020): 10151100. Population (2025): 10571024. Population (2030): 10969595. Population (2035): 11352175. Population (2040): 11723309. Population (2045): 12086797. Population (2050): 12445794. Population (2055): 12802908. Population (2060): 13160288. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8900000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 890000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 317504. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3175. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 190502. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3175. G. Minimal-regret population: 3175. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 197000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 197000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8973349. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 890000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3175. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 197000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 9221490. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 890000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 190502. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3175. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUADELOUPE Historical data: Population (1965): 300000. Population (1970): 320000. Population (1975): 329000. Population (1980): 327000. Population (1985): 355000. Population (1990): 391000. Population (1995): 409000. Population (2000): 428000. Population (2005): 447675. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 169000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 19000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 30000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 466193. Population (2015): 483769. Population (2020): 500640. Population (2025): 517006. Population (2030): 533035. Population (2035): 548867. Population (2040): 564615. Population (2045): 580376. Population (2050): 596226. Population (2055): 612231. Population (2060): 628446. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 190000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 19000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 6778. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 68. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 4067. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 68. G. Minimal-regret population: 68. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 30000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 431997. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 19000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 68. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 466193. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 19000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 4067. Minimal-regret population (2020): 68. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GAMBIA, THE Historical data: Population (1965): 408000. Population (1970): 469000. Population (1975): 555000. Population (1980): 652000. Population (1985): 773000. Population (1990): 936000. Population (1995): 1115000. Population (2000): 1312000. Population (2005): 1495695. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.7960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3014 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1000000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 250000. Number of plant species (1994): 966 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 110000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1663539. Population (2015): 1816664. Population (2020): 1955896. Population (2025): 2082716. Population (2030): 2198887. Population (2035): 2306215. Population (2040): 2406405. Population (2045): 2500990. Population (2050): 2591308. Population (2055): 2678499. Population (2060): 2763524. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 2500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 250000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 89186. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 892. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 53512. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 892. G. Minimal-regret population: 892. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 110000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 110000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1499423. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 250000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 892. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 110000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1663539. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 250000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 53512. Minimal-regret population (2020): 892. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUINEA-BISSAU Historical data: Population (1965): 558000. Population (1970): 584000. Population (1975): 651000. Population (1980): 793000. Population (1985): 891000. Population (1990): 1016000. Population (1995): 1190000. Population (2000): 1367000. Population (2005): 1572950. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.5930 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.8835 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2812000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 300000. Number of plant species (1994): 1000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 109000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1768214. Population (2015): 1947031. Population (2020): 2109771. Population (2025): 2257795. Population (2030): 2392962. Population (2035): 2517290. Population (2040): 2632749. Population (2045): 2741151. Population (2050): 2844095. Population (2055): 2942959. Population (2060): 3038911. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 300000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 107024. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1070. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 64214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1070. G. Minimal-regret population: 1070. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 109000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 109000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1606252. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 300000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1070. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 109000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1768214. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 300000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 64214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1070. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: EQ GUINEA Historical data: Population (1965): 272000. Population (1970): 294000. Population (1975): 228000. Population (1980): 219000. Population (1985): 314000. Population (1990): 354000. Population (1995): 401000. Population (2000): 456000. Population (2005): 518332. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.4220 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.4840 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2805000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 130000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 30000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 577375. Population (2015): 631264. Population (2020): 680267. Population (2025): 724890. Population (2030): 765744. Population (2035): 803463. Population (2040): 838644. Population (2045): 871831. Population (2050): 903494. Population (2055): 934037. Population (2060): 963801. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 130000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 46377. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 464. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 27826. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 464. G. Minimal-regret population: 464. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 30000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 534180. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 130000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 464. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 577375. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 130000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 27826. Minimal-regret population (2020): 464. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GREECE Historical data: Population (1965): 8551000. Population (1970): 8793000. Population (1975): 9047000. Population (1980): 9643000. Population (1985): 9934000. Population (1990): 10160000. Population (1995): 10454000. Population (2000): 10903000. Population (2005): 11078017. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2541 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2698. Land area (2003, hectares): 12890000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2720000. Number of plant species (1994): 4900 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 4555000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11300345. Population (2015): 11540361. Population (2020): 11795935. Population (2025): 12065447. Population (2030): 12347672. Population (2035): 12641691. Population (2040): 12946826. Population (2045): 13262589. Population (2050): 13588638. Population (2055): 13924753. Population (2060): 14270808. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 27200000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2720000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 970349. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9703. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 582209. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9703. G. Minimal-regret population: 9703. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 4555000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 4555000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6376577. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2720000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 9703. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 4555000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 3733000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7265125. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2720000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 582209. Minimal-regret population (2020): 9703. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ATHINAI (3027), Thessaloniki (706) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GRENADA Historical data: Population (1965): 91000. Population (1970): 93000. Population (1975): 91000. Population (1980): 89000. Population (1985): 87000. Population (1990): 85000. Population (1995): 83000. Population (2000): 81000. Population (2005): 78953. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.9960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0628 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 34000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 5000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 78028. Population (2015): 77758. Population (2020): 77990. Population (2025): 78613. Population (2030): 79546. Population (2035): 80730. Population (2040): 82121. Population (2045): 83684. Population (2050): 85394. Population (2055): 87232. Population (2060): 89184. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 5000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 73327. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 78028. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GREENLAND Historical data: Population (1965): 39000. Population (1970): 46000. Population (1975): 49000. Population (1980): 50000. Population (1985): 53000. Population (1990): 56000. Population (1995): 56000. Population (2000): 56000. Population (2005): 56062. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4048 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.3806 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 41045000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 12000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 56390. Population (2015): 56967. Population (2020): 57742. Population (2025): 58679. Population (2030): 59751. Population (2035): 60936. Population (2040): 62220. Population (2045): 63590. Population (2050): 65036. Population (2055): 66552. Population (2060): 68132. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 12000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 12000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 44307. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 12000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 56390. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUATEMALA Historical data: Population (1965): 4566000. Population (1970): 5243000. Population (1975): 6018000. Population (1980): 6820000. Population (1985): 7738000. Population (1990): 8749000. Population (1995): 9976000. Population (2000): 11423000. Population (2005): 12931336. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.2940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5940 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 631. Land area (2003, hectares): 10843000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1360000. Number of plant species (1994): 8000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1883000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 14324192. Population (2015): 15593454. Population (2020): 16747529. Population (2025): 17799630. Population (2030): 18764859. Population (2035): 19658365. Population (2040): 20494294. Population (2045): 21285281. Population (2050): 22042286. Population (2055): 22774627. Population (2060): 23490123. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 13600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1360000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 485174. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4852. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 291105. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4852. G. Minimal-regret population: 4852. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1883000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1883000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 11620457. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1360000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4852. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1883000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1676000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 11917682. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1360000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 291105. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4852. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): GUATEMALA (1676) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FR GUIANA Historical data: Population (1965): 40000. Population (1970): 48000. Population (1975): 56000. Population (1980): 68000. Population (1985): 88000. Population (1990): 116000. Population (1995): 139000. Population (2000): 164000. Population (2005): 188592. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 8815000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 12000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 41000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 211425. Population (2015): 232312. Population (2020): 251314. Population (2025): 268603. Population (2030): 284401. Population (2035): 298947. Population (2040): 312473. Population (2045): 325188. Population (2050): 337280. Population (2055): 348908. Population (2060): 360207. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 120000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 12000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 4281. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 43. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2569. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 43. G. Minimal-regret population: 43. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 41000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 41000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 149062. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 12000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 43. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 41000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 211425. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 12000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2569. Minimal-regret population (2020): 43. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUAM Historical data: Population (1965): 76000. Population (1970): 85000. Population (1975): 95000. Population (1980): 107000. Population (1985): 119000. Population (1990): 134000. Population (1995): 145000. Population (2000): 155000. Population (2005): 166856. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.7480 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4359 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 55000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 177637. Population (2015): 187514. Population (2020): 196641. Population (2025): 205163. Population (2030): 213211. Population (2035): 220897. Population (2040): 228319. Population (2045): 235559. Population (2050): 242683. Population (2055): 249748. Population (2060): 256800. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 50000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1784. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1070. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. G. Minimal-regret population: 18. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 176412. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 18. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 177637. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1070. Minimal-regret population (2020): 18. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: GUYANA Historical data: Population (1965): 645000. Population (1970): 709000. Population (1975): 734000. Population (1980): 761000. Population (1985): 754000. Population (1990): 731000. Population (1995): 741000. Population (2000): 759000. Population (2005): 771385. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.3090 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4296 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 19685000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 480000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 187000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 785755. Population (2015): 801568. Population (2020): 818627. Population (2025): 836783. Population (2030): 855923. Population (2035): 875961. Population (2040): 896833. Population (2045): 918490. Population (2050): 940900. Population (2055): 964038. Population (2060): 987889. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 4800000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 480000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 171238. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1712. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 102743. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1712. G. Minimal-regret population: 1712. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 187000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 187000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 587461. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 480000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1712. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 187000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 785755. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 480000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 102743. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1712. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: HOLY SEE Historical data: Population (1965): 1000. Population (1970): 1000. Population (1975): 1000. Population (1980): 1000. Population (1985): 1000. Population (1990): 1000. Population (1995): 1000. Population (2000): 1000. Population (2005): 1001. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1007. Population (2015): 1017. Population (2020): 1031. Population (2025): 1048. Population (2030): 1067. Population (2035): 1088. Population (2040): 1111. Population (2045): 1136. Population (2050): 1161. Population (2055): 1188. Population (2060): 1217. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 0. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1007. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: HONDURAS Historical data: Population (1965): 2244000. Population (1970): 2592000. Population (1975): 3016000. Population (1980): 3568000. Population (1985): 4182000. Population (1990): 4868000. Population (1995): 5636000. Population (2000): 6457000. Population (2005): 7251036. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.9960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.4990 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 502. Land area (2003, hectares): 11189000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1068000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1099000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7980374. Population (2015): 8644081. Population (2020): 9247804. Population (2025): 9799177. Population (2030): 10306454. Population (2035): 10777680. Population (2040): 11220237. Population (2045): 11640644. Population (2050): 12044513. Population (2055): 12436591. Population (2060): 12820845. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10680000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1068000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 381005. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3810. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 228603. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3810. G. Minimal-regret population: 3810. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1099000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1099000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6424230. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1068000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3810. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1099000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7980374. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1068000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 228603. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3810. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CROATIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 4453000. Population (2000): 4446000. Population (2005): 4436036. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.4490 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.1047 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1897. Land area (2003, hectares): 5592000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1459000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1166000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4457477. Population (2015): 4499483. Population (2020): 4557918. Population (2025): 4629710. Population (2030): 4712554. Population (2035): 4804706. Population (2040): 4904842. Population (2045): 5011951. Population (2050): 5125266. Population (2055): 5244204. Population (2060): 5368326. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 14590000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1459000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 520492. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5205. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 312295. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5205. G. Minimal-regret population: 5205. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1166000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1166000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3290305. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1459000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 5205. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1166000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 704000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3752769. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1459000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 312295. Minimal-regret population (2020): 5205. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ZABREB (704) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: HAITI Historical data: Population (1965): 4143000. Population (1970): 4520000. Population (1975): 4920000. Population (1980): 5453000. Population (1985): 6132000. Population (1990): 6914000. Population (1995): 7485000. Population (2000): 8005000. Population (2005): 8532873. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.1960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8332 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 255. Land area (2003, hectares): 2756000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 780000. Number of plant species (1994): 4685 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1086000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9025449. Population (2015): 9479512. Population (2020): 9902282. Population (2025): 10300318. Population (2030): 10679373. Population (2035): 11044379. Population (2040): 11399497. Population (2045): 11748196. Population (2050): 12093352. Population (2055): 12437342. Population (2060): 12782122. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 7800000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 780000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 278262. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2783. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 166957. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2783. G. Minimal-regret population: 2783. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1086000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1086000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 7715945. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 780000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2783. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1086000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 690000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 8193443. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 780000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 166957. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2783. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): PORT-AU-PRINCE (690) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: HUNGARY Historical data: Population (1965): 10153000. Population (1970): 10337000. Population (1975): 10532000. Population (1980): 10707000. Population (1985): 10579000. Population (1990): 10365000. Population (1995): 10214000. Population (2000): 10012000. Population (2005): 9811053. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.3056 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2506. Land area (2003, hectares): 9211000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4614000. Number of plant species (1994): 2148 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 9 City population (1993): 3230000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9701701. Population (2015): 9672557. Population (2020): 9704794. Population (2025): 9784936. Population (2030): 9903162. Population (2035): 10052200. Population (2040): 10226608. Population (2045): 10422277. Population (2050): 10636088. Population (2055): 10865665. Population (2060): 11109200. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 46140000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4614000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1646025. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16460. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 987615. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16460. G. Minimal-regret population: 16460. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 9 City population: 3230000. Number of cities targeted: 9 City population destroyed: 3230000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6633706. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4614000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16460. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 9 City population: 3230000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2012000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7790616. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4614000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 987615. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16460. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BUDAPEST (2012) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: INDONESIA Historical data: Population (1965): 106596000. Population (1970): 119998000. Population (1975): 134446000. Population (1980): 150128000. Population (1985): 166238000. Population (1990): 182117000. Population (1995): 197221000. Population (2000): 211559000. Population (2005): 225160185. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.3400 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 749. Land area (2003, hectares): 181157000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 20500000. Number of plant species (1994): 27500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 30 City population (1993): 21092000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 237650309. Population (2015): 249193967. Population (2020): 259974428. Population (2025): 270156366. Population (2030): 279883194. Population (2035): 289277197. Population (2040): 298441155. Population (2045): 307460633. Population (2050): 316406451. Population (2055): 325337053. Population (2060): 334300659. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 205000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 20500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 7313290. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 73133. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 4387974. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 73133. G. Minimal-regret population: 73133. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 30 City population: 21092000. Number of cities targeted: 30 City population destroyed: 21092000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 212234555. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 20500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 73133. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 30 City population: 21092000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 17141000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 216995490. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 20500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 4387974. Minimal-regret population (2020): 73133. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): JAKARTA (7886), Surabaja (2028), Bandung (1463), Medan (1379), Semarang (1027), Palembang (787), Ujung Pandang (709), Malang (512), Padang (481), Surakartaa (470), Yogyakarta (399) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: INDIA Historical data: Population (1965): 495157000. Population (1970): 554911000. Population (1975): 620701000. Population (1980): 688856000. Population (1985): 764260000. Population (1990): 846418000. Population (1995): 931351000. Population (2000): 1016938000. Population (2005): 1096205640. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8640 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4915 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 513. Land area (2003, hectares): 297319000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 161750000. Number of plant species (1994): 15000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 305 City population (1993): 141026000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1168388978. Population (2015): 1234466102. Population (2020): 1295457145. Population (2025): 1352331581. Population (2030): 1405965148. Population (2035): 1457123227. Population (2040): 1506460021. Population (2045): 1554526279. Population (2050): 1601780994. Population (2055): 1648604283. Population (2060): 1695309924. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1617500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 161750000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 57703641. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 577036. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 34622185. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 577036. G. Minimal-regret population: 577036. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 305 City population: 141026000. Number of cities targeted: 305 City population destroyed: 141026000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 991470476. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 161750000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 577036. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 305 City population: 141026000. Number of cities targeted: 42 City population destroyed: 84634000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1062214794. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 161750000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 34622185. Minimal-regret population (2020): 577036. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Bombay (12596), Calcutta (11022), Delhi (8419), Madras (5422), Bangalore (4130), Ahmedabad (3312), Hyderabad (3146), Pune (2494), Kanpur (2030), Lucknow (1669), Nagpur (1664), Surat (1519), Jaipur (1518), Kochi (1141), Vadadara (1127), Indore (1109), Coimbatore (1101), Patna (1100), Madurai (1086), Bhopal (1063), Visakhapatnam (1057), Ludhiana (1043), Varanasi (1031), Kalyan (1015), Agra (948), Jabalpur (888), Meerut (850), Allhabad (845), Thirvananthapuram (826), Dhanbad (815), Thane (803), Kozhikode (801), Asansol (764), Vijayawada (758), Nashik (725), Gwalior (718), Tiruchchirappalli (712), Amritsar (709), Durg Bhilai Naga (685), Jodhpur (666), Rajkot (654), Mysore (653) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: IRELAND Historical data: Population (1965): 2876000. Population (1970): 2954000. Population (1975): 3177000. Population (1980): 3401000. Population (1985): 3539000. Population (1990): 3515000. Population (1995): 3609000. Population (2000): 3819000. Population (2005): 4045930. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.6154 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4007. Land area (2003, hectares): 6889000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1047000. Number of plant species (1994): 892 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 1090000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4256477. Population (2015): 4451981. Population (2020): 4635508. Population (2025): 4809772. Population (2030): 4977108. Population (2035): 5139495. Population (2040): 5298585. Population (2045): 5455752. Population (2050): 5612131. Population (2055): 5768655. Population (2060): 5926098. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10470000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1047000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 373513. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3735. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 224108. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3735. G. Minimal-regret population: 3735. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1090000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1090000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2970924. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1047000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3735. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1090000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 916000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3176141. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1047000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 224108. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3735. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): DUBLIN (916) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: IRAN Historical data: Population (1965): 24890000. Population (1970): 28809000. Population (1975): 33353000. Population (1980): 39343000. Population (1985): 48442000. Population (1990): 56703000. Population (1995): 62382000. Population (2000): 66443000. Population (2005): 70454727. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.2916 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2109. Land area (2003, hectares): 163620000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 14268000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 41 City population (1993): 17979000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 74202411. Population (2015): 77676515. Population (2020): 80931840. Population (2025): 84017101. Population (2030): 86974414. Population (2035): 89839513. Population (2040): 92642333. Population (2045): 95407743. Population (2050): 98156300. Population (2055): 100904966. Population (2060): 103667738. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 142680000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 14268000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 5090050. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 50900. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3054030. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 50900. G. Minimal-regret population: 50900. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 41 City population: 17979000. Number of cities targeted: 41 City population destroyed: 17979000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 52816673. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 14268000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 50900. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 41 City population: 17979000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 10313000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 61935259. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 14268000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3054030. Minimal-regret population (2020): 50900. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: IRAQ Historical data: Population (1965): 7976000. Population (1970): 9356000. Population (1975): 11020000. Population (1980): 12962000. Population (1985): 15236000. Population (1990): 17341000. Population (1995): 20206000. Population (2000): 23224000. Population (2005): 26401611. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.0450 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1510 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1200. Land area (2003, hectares): 43737000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5750000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 21 City population (1993): 12252000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 29349024. Population (2015): 32037528. Population (2020): 34482063. Population (2025): 36708901. Population (2030): 38749148. Population (2035): 40634542. Population (2040): 42395022. Population (2045): 44057503. Population (2050): 45645432. Population (2055): 47178807. Population (2060): 48674438. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 57500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5750000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2051289. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20513. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1230773. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20513. G. Minimal-regret population: 20513. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 21 City population: 12252000. Number of cities targeted: 21 City population destroyed: 12252000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 11553110. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5750000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 20513. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 21 City population: 12252000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 7188000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 18908522. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5750000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1230773. Minimal-regret population (2020): 20513. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BAGDAD (3841), Diyala (961), Al Sulaimaniya (952), Arbil (770), Mosul (664) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ICELAND Historical data: Population (1965): 192000. Population (1970): 204000. Population (1975): 218000. Population (1980): 228000. Population (1985): 241000. Population (1990): 255000. Population (1995): 267000. Population (2000): 282000. Population (2005): 292914. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.3466 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 11819. Land area (2003, hectares): 10025000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 151000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 302539. Population (2015): 311958. Population (2020): 321255. Population (2025): 330497. Population (2030): 339742. Population (2035): 349036. Population (2040): 358419. Population (2045): 367921. Population (2050): 377570. Population (2055): 387389. Population (2060): 397397. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 70000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2497. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1498. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. G. Minimal-regret population: 25. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 151000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 151000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 131440. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 25. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 151000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 302539. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1498. Minimal-regret population (2020): 25. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ISRAEL Historical data: Population (1965): 2563000. Population (1970): 2898000. Population (1975): 3358000. Population (1980): 3764000. Population (1985): 4103000. Population (1990): 4514000. Population (1995): 5349000. Population (2000): 6042000. Population (2005): 6680083. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6904 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8410 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3235. Land area (2003, hectares): 2062000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 338000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 3624000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7261575. Population (2015): 7790328. Population (2020): 8272581. Population (2025): 8715349. Population (2030): 9125607. Population (2035): 9509835. Population (2040): 9873801. Population (2045): 10222499. Population (2050): 10560167. Population (2055): 10890358. Population (2060): 11216025. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3380000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 338000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 120580. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1206. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 72348. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1206. G. Minimal-regret population: 1206. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3624000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 3624000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2341787. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 338000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1206. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 3624000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 2052000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4475867. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 338000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 72348. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1206. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Tel Aviv-Yafo (1502), JERUSALEM (550) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ITALY Historical data: Population (1965): 52112000. Population (1970): 53822000. Population (1975): 55441000. Population (1980): 56434000. Population (1985): 56593000. Population (1990): 56719000. Population (1995): 57301000. Population (2000): 57536000. Population (2005): 57469029. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.0761 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3034. Land area (2003, hectares): 29411000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8172000. Number of plant species (1994): 5463 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 46 City population (1993): 14414000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 57723083. Population (2015): 58248543. Population (2020): 58990526. Population (2025): 59908310. Population (2030): 60971353. Population (2035): 62156563. Population (2040): 63446398. Population (2045): 64827497. Population (2050): 66289688. Population (2055): 67825258. Population (2060): 69428396. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 81720000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8172000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2915327. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29153. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1749196. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 29153. G. Minimal-regret population: 29153. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 46 City population: 14414000. Number of cities targeted: 46 City population destroyed: 14414000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 43202909. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8172000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 29153. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 46 City population: 14414000. Number of cities targeted: 6 City population destroyed: 7454000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 50214176. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8172000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1749196. Minimal-regret population (2020): 29153. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ROMA (2693), Milano (1371), Napoli (1055), Torino (962), Palermo (697), Genova (676) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: JAMAICA Historical data: Population (1965): 1760000. Population (1970): 1869000. Population (1975): 2013000. Population (1980): 2133000. Population (1985): 2297000. Population (1990): 2369000. Population (1995): 2472000. Population (2000): 2580000. Population (2005): 2695334. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.8202 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1521. Land area (2003, hectares): 1083000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 174000. Number of plant species (1994): 2746 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 525000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2804691. Population (2015): 2908719. Population (2020): 3008788. Population (2025): 3106053. Population (2030): 3201480. Population (2035): 3295869. Population (2040): 3389882. Population (2045): 3484065. Population (2050): 3578866. Population (2055): 3674661. Population (2060): 3771759. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1740000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 174000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 62074. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 621. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 37244. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 621. G. Minimal-regret population: 621. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 525000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 525000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2209035. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 174000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 621. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 525000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2804691. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 174000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 37244. Minimal-regret population (2020): 621. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: JORDAN Historical data: Population (1965): 1106000. Population (1970): 1623000. Population (1975): 1937000. Population (1980): 2225000. Population (1985): 2706000. Population (1990): 3254000. Population (1995): 4249000. Population (2000): 5035000. Population (2005): 5754351. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.4970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.6063 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1032. Land area (2003, hectares): 8893000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 237000. Number of plant species (1994): 2200 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1656000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6418169. Population (2015): 7024313. Population (2020): 7575530. Population (2025): 8077364. Population (2030): 8536627. Population (2035): 8960392. Population (2040): 9355396. Population (2045): 9727732. Population (2050): 10082734. Population (2055): 10424961. Population (2060): 10758256. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 2370000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 237000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 84549. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 845. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 50729. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 845. G. Minimal-regret population: 845. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1656000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1656000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3916760. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 237000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 845. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1656000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 965000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4960524. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 237000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 50729. Minimal-regret population (2020): 845. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): AMMAN (965) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: JAPAN Historical data: Population (1965): 98881000. Population (1970): 104331000. Population (1975): 111524000. Population (1980): 116807000. Population (1985): 120837000. Population (1990): 123537000. Population (1995): 125472000. Population (2000): 127034000. Population (2005): 128238855. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3300 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.1365 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4079. Land area (2003, hectares): 36450000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4445000. Number of plant species (1994): 4700 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 214 City population (1993): 77473000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 129885425. Population (2015): 131916444. Population (2020): 134265295. Population (2025): 136881608. Population (2030): 139727111. Population (2035): 142772653. Population (2040): 145996045. Population (2045): 149380461. Population (2050): 152913230. Population (2055): 156584929. Population (2060): 160388685. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 44450000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4445000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1585735. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15857. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 951441. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 15857. G. Minimal-regret population: 15857. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 214 City population: 77473000. Number of cities targeted: 214 City population destroyed: 77473000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 49687345. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4445000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 15857. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 214 City population: 77473000. Number of cities targeted: 43 City population destroyed: 45428000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 82859514. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4445000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 951441. Minimal-regret population (2020): 15857. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): TOKYO (11927), Yokohama (3272), Osaka (2603), Nagoya (2162), Sapporo (1717), Kobe (1499), Kyoto (1457), Fukuoka (1262), Kawasaki (1195), Hiroshima (1097), Kitakyushu (1021), Sendai (942), Chiba (842), Sakai (808), Kumamoto (636), Okayama (601), Hamamatsu (558), Sagamihara (552), Funabashi (538), Kagoshima (538), Higashiosaka (516), Amagasaki (497), Niigata (489), Hachioji (482), Shizuoka (474), Matsudo (461), Himeji (461), Matsuyama (451), Kawaguchi (448), Ichikawa (447), Kanazawa (446), Nagasaki (442), Yokosuka (436), Urawa (435), Utsunomiya (433), Nishinomiya (426), Kurashiki (417), Oito (417), Omiya (416), Gifu (410), Toyonaka (406), Wakayama (396), Hirakata (395) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KAZAKHSTAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 16556000. Population (2000): 15640000. Population (2005): 15319206. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0208 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3022. Land area (2003, hectares): 269970000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 21535000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 19 City population (1993): 5957000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 15187761. Population (2015): 15172478. Population (2020): 15246612. Population (2025): 15390915. Population (2030): 15591284. Population (2035): 15837247. Population (2040): 16120941. Population (2045): 16436419. Population (2050): 16779160. Population (2055): 17145723. Population (2060): 17533487. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 215350000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 21535000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 7682522. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 76825. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 4609513. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 76825. G. Minimal-regret population: 76825. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 19 City population: 5957000. Number of cities targeted: 19 City population destroyed: 5957000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9723066. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 21535000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 76825. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 19 City population: 5957000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 2608000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 12795294. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 21535000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 4609513. Minimal-regret population (2020): 76825. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ALMATY (1198), Karaganda (596), Shimkent (447), Pavlograd (367) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KENYA Historical data: Population (1965): 9666000. Population (1970): 11370000. Population (1975): 13578000. Population (1980): 16368000. Population (1985): 19759000. Population (1990): 23585000. Population (1995): 27390000. Population (2000): 30549000. Population (2005): 32912046. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.8000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8061 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 489. Land area (2003, hectares): 56914000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4600000. Number of plant species (1994): 6000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1757000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 35035693. Population (2015): 36981471. Population (2020): 38779660. Population (2025): 40458811. Population (2030): 42044588. Population (2035): 43559342. Population (2040): 45022139. Population (2045): 46449002. Population (2050): 47853273. Population (2055): 49245994. Population (2060): 50636278. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 46000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4600000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1641031. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16410. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 984619. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16410. G. Minimal-regret population: 16410. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1757000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1757000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 32788241. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4600000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16410. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1757000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1162000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 33549330. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4600000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 984619. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16410. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): NAIROBI (1162) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KYRGYZ REP Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 4562000. Population (2000): 4921000. Population (2005): 5275057. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.3980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.9613 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 507. Land area (2003, hectares): 19180000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1400000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 847000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5597549. Population (2015): 5893833. Population (2020): 6168590. Population (2025): 6426150. Population (2030): 6670355. Population (2035): 6904527. Population (2040): 7131482. Population (2045): 7353576. Population (2050): 7572769. Population (2055): 7790680. Population (2060): 8008643. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 14000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1400000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 499444. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4994. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 299667. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4994. G. Minimal-regret population: 4994. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 847000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 847000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4558285. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1400000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4994. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 847000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5597549. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1400000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 299667. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4994. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CAMBODIA Historical data: Population (1965): 6141000. Population (1970): 6938000. Population (1975): 7098000. Population (1980): 6613000. Population (1985): 8119000. Population (1990): 9744000. Population (1995): 11485000. Population (2000): 13147000. Population (2005): 14773436. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.8970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7415 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 17652000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3700000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 394000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 16268681. Population (2015): 17629505. Population (2020): 18867270. Population (2025): 19997496. Population (2030): 21037052. Population (2035): 22002412. Population (2040): 22908718. Population (2045): 23769355. Population (2050): 24595851. Population (2055): 25397963. Population (2060): 26183850. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 37000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1319960. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 791976. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. G. Minimal-regret population: 13200. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 394000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 394000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 15710574. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 13200. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 394000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 16268681. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 791976. Minimal-regret population (2020): 13200. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KIRIBATI Historical data: Population (1965): 45000. Population (1970): 49000. Population (1975): 53000. Population (1980): 58000. Population (1985): 64000. Population (1990): 72000. Population (1995): 78000. Population (2000): 84000. Population (2005): 91259. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.5960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7512 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 73000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 18000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 97685. Population (2015): 103553. Population (2020): 108948. Population (2025): 113958. Population (2030): 118661. Population (2035): 123125. Population (2040): 127412. Population (2045): 131572. Population (2050): 135646. Population (2055): 139671. Population (2060): 143676. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 18000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 18000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 75142. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 18000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 97685. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ST KITTS & NE Historical data: Population (1965): 49000. Population (1970): 47000. Population (1975): 46000. Population (1980): 44000. Population (1985): 43000. Population (1990): 41000. Population (1995): 44000. Population (2000): 42000. Population (2005): 41259. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1060 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0000 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 36000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 14000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 40357. Population (2015): 39898. Population (2020): 39771. Population (2025): 39899. Population (2030): 40224. Population (2035): 40707. Population (2040): 41317. Population (2045): 42032. Population (2050): 42834. Population (2055): 43712. Population (2060): 44654. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 70000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2497. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1498. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. G. Minimal-regret population: 25. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 14000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 27516. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 25. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 40357. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1498. Minimal-regret population (2020): 25. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KOREA, REP Historical data: Population (1965): 28530000. Population (1970): 31923000. Population (1975): 35281000. Population (1980): 38124000. Population (1985): 40806000. Population (1990): 42869000. Population (1995): 45041000. Population (2000): 46835000. Population (2005): 48289151. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.4500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5688 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4400. Land area (2003, hectares): 9873000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1696000. Number of plant species (1994): 2898 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 41 City population (1993): 30153000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 49710202. Population (2015): 51126044. Population (2020): 52544811. Population (2025): 53973221. Population (2030): 55416842. Population (2035): 56880316. Population (2040): 58367542. Population (2045): 59881829. Population (2050): 61426017. Population (2055): 63002576. Population (2060): 64613687. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 16960000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1696000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 605041. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6050. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 363025. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6050. G. Minimal-regret population: 6050. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 41 City population: 30153000. Number of cities targeted: 41 City population destroyed: 30153000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 16431373. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1696000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6050. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 41 City population: 30153000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 23700000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 23553328. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1696000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 363025. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6050. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KUWAIT Historical data: Population (1965): 471000. Population (1970): 744000. Population (1975): 1007000. Population (1980): 1375000. Population (1985): 1720000. Population (1990): 2143000. Population (1995): 1696000. Population (2000): 2247000. Population (2005): 2708855. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.5180 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5997 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9645. Land area (2003, hectares): 1782000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 13000. Number of plant species (1994): 234 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 323000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3132751. Population (2015): 3526491. Population (2020): 3887271. Population (2025): 4215676. Population (2030): 4514356. Population (2035): 4787003. Population (2040): 5037661. Population (2045): 5270299. Population (2050): 5488572. Population (2055): 5695717. Population (2060): 5894527. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 130000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 13000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 4638. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 46. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2783. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 46. G. Minimal-regret population: 46. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 323000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 323000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2536124. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 13000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 46. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 323000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3132751. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 13000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2783. Minimal-regret population (2020): 46. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LAO PDR Historical data: Population (1965): 2432000. Population (1970): 2713000. Population (1975): 3024000. Population (1980): 3205000. Population (1985): 3621000. Population (1990): 4132000. Population (1995): 4686000. Population (2000): 5279000. Population (2005): 5898921. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.7950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3190 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 23080000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 877000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 132000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6472297. Population (2015): 6993845. Population (2020): 7468453. Population (2025): 7902372. Population (2030): 8302204. Population (2035): 8674306. Population (2040): 9024461. Population (2045): 9357753. Population (2050): 9678540. Population (2055): 9990502. Population (2060): 10296708. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8770000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 877000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 312866. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3129. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 187720. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3129. G. Minimal-regret population: 3129. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 132000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 132000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6289979. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 877000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3129. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 132000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6472297. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 877000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 187720. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3129. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LEBANON Historical data: Population (1965): 2151000. Population (1970): 2469000. Population (1975): 2767000. Population (1980): 2669000. Population (1985): 2668000. Population (1990): 2712000. Population (1995): 3150000. Population (2000): 3478000. Population (2005): 3766387. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2190 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.2624 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1232. Land area (2003, hectares): 1023000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 170000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 1067000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4029740. Population (2015): 4270247. Population (2020): 4491506. Population (2025): 4697026. Population (2030): 4890028. Population (2035): 5073356. Population (2040): 5249459. Population (2045): 5420408. Population (2050): 5587937. Population (2055): 5753482. Population (2060): 5918230. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1700000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 170000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 60647. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 606. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 36388. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 606. G. Minimal-regret population: 606. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1067000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1067000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2664746. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 170000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 606. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1067000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 939000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2828494. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 170000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 36388. Minimal-regret population (2020): 606. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BEIRUT (939) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LIBERIA Historical data: Population (1965): 1203000. Population (1970): 1387000. Population (1975): 1605000. Population (1980): 1869000. Population (1985): 2172000. Population (1990): 2135000. Population (1995): 2129000. Population (2000): 2943000. Population (2005): 3657003. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.7940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3542 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 9632000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 380000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 421000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4335164. Population (2015): 4974882. Population (2020): 5566522. Population (2025): 6107362. Population (2030): 6599311. Population (2035): 7046987. Population (2040): 7456288. Population (2045): 7833445. Population (2050): 8184451. Population (2055): 8514764. Population (2060): 8829176. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3800000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 380000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 135563. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1356. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 81338. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1356. G. Minimal-regret population: 1356. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 421000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 421000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3477905. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 380000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1356. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 421000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4335164. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 380000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 81338. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1356. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LIBYA Historical data: Population (1965): 1623000. Population (1970): 1986000. Population (1975): 2446000. Population (1980): 3043000. Population (1985): 3786000. Population (1990): 4306000. Population (1995): 4751000. Population (2000): 5237000. Population (2005): 5754665. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.3170 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.0180 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3478. Land area (2003, hectares): 175954000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1815000. Number of plant species (1994): 1800 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 936000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6237489. Population (2015): 6676636. Population (2020): 7077593. Population (2025): 7446331. Population (2030): 7788692. Population (2035): 8110050. Population (2040): 8415156. Population (2045): 8708106. Population (2050): 8992366. Population (2055): 9270834. Population (2060): 9545918. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 18150000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1815000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 647494. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6475. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 388496. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6475. G. Minimal-regret population: 6475. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 936000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 936000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5008634. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1815000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6475. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 936000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 551000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5514092. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1815000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 388496. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6475. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ST LUCIA Historical data: Population (1965): 92000. Population (1970): 100000. Population (1975): 105000. Population (1980): 113000. Population (1985): 121000. Population (1990): 131000. Population (1995): 140000. Population (2000): 146000. Population (2005): 150963. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.9102 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 61000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 52000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 155800. Population (2015): 160553. Population (2020): 165260. Population (2025): 169952. Population (2030): 174657. Population (2035): 179396. Population (2040): 184187. Population (2045): 189046. Population (2050): 193984. Population (2055): 199013. Population (2060): 204142. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 52000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 52000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 97932. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 52000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 155800. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LIECHTENSTEIN Historical data: Population (1965): 19000. Population (1970): 21000. Population (1975): 23000. Population (1980): 25000. Population (1985): 27000. Population (1990): 29000. Population (1995): 31000. Population (2000): 33000. Population (2005): 33880. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 16000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 5000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 35374. Population (2015): 36783. Population (2020): 38126. Population (2025): 39420. Population (2030): 40681. Population (2035): 41920. Population (2040): 43147. Population (2045): 44371. Population (2050): 45598. Population (2055): 46835. Population (2060): 48085. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 5000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 29669. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 35374. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SRI LANKA Historical data: Population (1965): 11004000. Population (1970): 12295000. Population (1975): 13481000. Population (1980): 14543000. Population (1985): 15612000. Population (1990): 16830000. Population (1995): 17781000. Population (2000): 18595000. Population (2005): 19372926. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1756 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 441. Land area (2003, hectares): 6463000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 896000. Number of plant species (1994): 3000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 1432000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20112872. Population (2015): 20821959. Population (2020): 21508781. Population (2025): 22180539. Population (2030): 22843214. Population (2035): 23501754. Population (2040): 24160239. Population (2045): 24822036. Population (2050): 25489932. Population (2055): 26166245. Population (2060): 26852916. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8960000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 896000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 319644. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3196. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 191787. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3196. G. Minimal-regret population: 3196. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 1432000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 1432000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 18493074. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 896000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3196. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 1432000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 20112872. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 896000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 191787. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3196. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LESOTHO Historical data: Population (1965): 935000. Population (1970): 1028000. Population (1975): 1138000. Population (1980): 1277000. Population (1985): 1440000. Population (1990): 1570000. Population (1995): 1683000. Population (2000): 1785000. Population (2005): 1824518. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.2960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.9037 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 3035000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 330000. Number of plant species (1994): 1576 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 29000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1871110. Population (2015): 1918771. Population (2020): 1967550. Population (2025): 2017493. Population (2030): 2068644. Population (2035): 2121043. Population (2040): 2174732. Population (2045): 2229750. Population (2050): 2286136. Population (2055): 2343928. Population (2060): 2403167. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 3300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 330000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 117726. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1177. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 70636. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1177. G. Minimal-regret population: 1177. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 29000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 29000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1838869. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 330000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1177. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 29000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1871110. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 330000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 70636. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1177. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LITHUANIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 3563000. Population (2000): 3501000. Population (2005): 3421172. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4324 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2457. Land area (2003, hectares): 6480000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2930000. Number of plant species (1994): 1200 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 6 City population (1993): 1608000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3379593. Population (2015): 3366788. Population (2020): 3375954. Population (2025): 3402232. Population (2030): 3442086. Population (2035): 3492906. Population (2040): 3552735. Population (2045): 3620102. Population (2050): 3693886. Population (2055): 3773238. Population (2060): 3857508. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 29300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2930000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1045265. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10453. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 627159. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10453. G. Minimal-regret population: 10453. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 6 City population: 1608000. Number of cities targeted: 6 City population destroyed: 1608000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1854366. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2930000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10453. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 6 City population: 1608000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3379593. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2930000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 627159. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10453. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LUXEMBOURG Historical data: Population (1965): 332000. Population (1970): 339000. Population (1975): 359000. Population (1980): 364000. Population (1985): 367000. Population (1990): 378000. Population (1995): 405000. Population (2000): 435000. Population (2005): 464349. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.6300 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0095 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 9046. Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 75000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 491287. Population (2015): 516111. Population (2020): 539216. Population (2025): 560961. Population (2030): 581662. Population (2035): 601587. Population (2040): 620967. Population (2045): 639990. Population (2050): 658816. Population (2055): 677574. Population (2060): 696372. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 75000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 75000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 400308. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 75000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 491287. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: LATVIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 2498000. Population (2000): 2373000. Population (2005): 2272629. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.7271 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1813. Land area (2003, hectares): 6205000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1841000. Number of plant species (1994): 1153 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1123000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2207602. Population (2015): 2170888. Population (2020): 2155088. Population (2025): 2155104. Population (2030): 2167333. Population (2035): 2189172. Population (2040): 2218712. Population (2045): 2254530. Population (2050): 2295559. Population (2055): 2340990. Population (2060): 2390206. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 18410000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1841000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 656769. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6568. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 394061. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6568. G. Minimal-regret population: 6568. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1123000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1123000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1215153. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1841000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6568. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1123000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 886000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1424601. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1841000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 394061. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6568. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): RIGA (886) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MOROCCO Historical data: Population (1965): 13323000. Population (1970): 15310000. Population (1975): 17305000. Population (1980): 19382000. Population (1985): 21995000. Population (1990): 24564000. Population (1995): 26839000. Population (2000): 29108000. Population (2005): 31499818. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6600 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5802 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 369. Land area (2003, hectares): 44630000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 8750000. Number of plant species (1994): 3600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 16 City population (1993): 8420000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 33723451. Population (2015): 35753518. Population (2020): 37620206. Population (2025): 39353082. Population (2030): 40979357. Population (2035): 42523110. Population (2040): 44005097. Population (2045): 45442891. Population (2050): 46851192. Population (2055): 48242204. Population (2060): 49626009. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 87500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 8750000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3121526. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 31215. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1872916. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 31215. G. Minimal-regret population: 31215. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 16 City population: 8420000. Number of cities targeted: 16 City population destroyed: 8420000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 23143643. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 8750000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 31215. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 16 City population: 8420000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 4163000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 28492603. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 8750000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1872916. Minimal-regret population (2020): 31215. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Casablanca (2943), RABAT (1220) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MONACO Historical data: Population (1965): 22000. Population (1970): 24000. Population (1975): 25000. Population (1980): 27000. Population (1985): 28000. Population (1990): 30000. Population (1995): 32000. Population (2000): 33000. Population (2005): 34880. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 27000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 36378. Population (2015): 37793. Population (2020): 39146. Population (2025): 40454. Population (2030): 41731. Population (2035): 42989. Population (2040): 44236. Population (2045): 45483. Population (2050): 46734. Population (2055): 47996. Population (2060): 49272. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 27000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 27000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5684. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 27000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 36378. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MOLDOVA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 4339000. Population (2000): 4283000. Population (2005): 4259965. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4089 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 632. Land area (2003, hectares): 3291000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1820000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1145000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4265946. Population (2015): 4294781. Population (2020): 4341676. Population (2025): 4403099. Population (2030): 4476414. Population (2035): 4559636. Population (2040): 4651261. Population (2045): 4750145. Population (2050): 4855415. Population (2055): 4966408. Population (2060): 5082624. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 18200000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1820000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 649277. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6493. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 389566. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6493. G. Minimal-regret population: 6493. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1145000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1145000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3140224. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1820000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6493. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1145000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 667000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3610176. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1820000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 389566. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6493. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MADAGASCAR Historical data: Population (1965): 6114000. Population (1970): 6939000. Population (1975): 7903000. Population (1980): 9048000. Population (1985): 10405000. Population (1990): 11956000. Population (1995): 13789000. Population (2000): 15970000. Population (2005): 18307117. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.1940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.7405 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 58154000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2950000. Number of plant species (1994): 9000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 378000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20481467. Population (2015): 22469016. Population (2020): 24276874. Population (2025): 25922063. Population (2030): 27426284. Population (2035): 28812450. Population (2040): 30102591. Population (2045): 31316758. Population (2050): 32472559. Population (2055): 33585097. Population (2060): 34667116. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 29500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2950000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1052400. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10524. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 631440. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10524. G. Minimal-regret population: 10524. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 378000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 378000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 19920005. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2950000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10524. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 378000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 20481467. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2950000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 631440. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10524. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MALDIVES Historical data: Population (1965): 109000. Population (1970): 121000. Population (1975): 137000. Population (1980): 158000. Population (1985): 184000. Population (1990): 216000. Population (1995): 250000. Population (2000): 291000. Population (2005): 335731. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.9960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.2079 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 30000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 30000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 377632. Population (2015): 416013. Population (2020): 450945. Population (2025): 482718. Population (2030): 511726. Population (2035): 538403. Population (2040): 563170. Population (2045): 586417. Population (2050): 608487. Population (2055): 629676. Population (2060): 650236. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 30000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 332316. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 377632. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MEXICO Historical data: Population (1965): 43148000. Population (1970): 50596000. Population (1975): 59098000. Population (1980): 67569000. Population (1985): 75464000. Population (1990): 83225000. Population (1995): 91143000. Population (2000): 98933000. Population (2005): 106324206. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4499 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1571. Land area (2003, hectares): 190869000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 24800000. Number of plant species (1994): 25000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 61 City population (1993): 34985000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 113074000. Population (2015): 119263251. Population (2020): 124988801. Population (2025): 130341416. Population (2030): 135402363. Population (2035): 140242251. Population (2040): 144921187. Population (2045): 149489636. Population (2050): 153989582. Population (2055): 158455760. Population (2060): 162916831. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 248000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 24800000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 8847297. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 88473. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 5308378. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 88473. G. Minimal-regret population: 88473. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 61 City population: 34985000. Number of cities targeted: 61 City population destroyed: 34985000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 69670844. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 24800000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 88473. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 61 City population: 34985000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 24436000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 82758164. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 24800000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 5308378. Minimal-regret population (2020): 88473. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MEXICO, CIUDAD DE (13879), Guadalajara (2265), Monterrey (2002), Netzahualcoyoti (1342), Puebla de Zaragoza (1137), Tlalnepantla (778), Ecatepec (742), Naucalpan (724), Leon (593), Ciudad Juarez (544), Tijuana (430) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MARSHALL IS Historical data: Population (1965): 18000. Population (1970): 21000. Population (1975): 26000. Population (1980): 31000. Population (1985): 38000. Population (1990): 44000. Population (1995): 48000. Population (2000): 51000. Population (2005): 53746. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0000 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 18000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 9000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 56677. Population (2015): 59389. Population (2020): 61925. Population (2025): 64324. Population (2030): 66618. Population (2035): 68837. Population (2040): 71004. Population (2045): 73139. Population (2050): 75258. Population (2055): 77376. Population (2060): 79502. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 9000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 46050. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 56677. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MACEDONIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 1963000. Population (2000): 2024000. Population (2005): 2079115. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5383 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2543000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 566000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 448000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2134786. Population (2015): 2191210. Population (2020): 2248541. Population (2025): 2306908. Population (2030): 2366421. Population (2035): 2427177. Population (2040): 2489260. Population (2045): 2552747. Population (2050): 2617707. Population (2055): 2684204. Population (2060): 2752299. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5660000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 566000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 201918. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2019. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 121151. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2019. G. Minimal-regret population: 2019. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 448000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 448000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1647580. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 566000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2019. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 448000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2134786. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 566000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 121151. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2019. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MALI Historical data: Population (1965): 4977000. Population (1970): 5607000. Population (1975): 6290000. Population (1980): 7044000. Population (1985): 7958000. Population (1990): 9046000. Population (1995): 10356000. Population (2000): 11904000. Population (2005): 13709815. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.3970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.4130 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 122019000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4660000. Number of plant species (1994): 1741 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 658000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 15425525. Population (2015): 16997298. Population (2020): 18427931. Population (2025): 19729113. Population (2030): 20917018. Population (2035): 22009308. Population (2040): 23023282. Population (2045): 23974864. Population (2050): 24878145. Population (2055): 25745271. Population (2060): 26586527. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 46600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4660000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1662436. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16624. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 997461. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16624. G. Minimal-regret population: 16624. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 658000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 658000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14445418. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4660000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16624. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 658000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 658000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 14445418. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4660000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 997461. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16624. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BAMAKO (658) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MALTA Historical data: Population (1965): 305000. Population (1970): 303000. Population (1975): 304000. Population (1980): 324000. Population (1985): 344000. Population (1990): 360000. Population (1995): 378000. Population (2000): 389000. Population (2005): 399048. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.4100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5025 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2200. Land area (2003, hectares): 32000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 9000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 14000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 409297. Population (2015): 419770. Population (2020): 430478. Population (2025): 441435. Population (2030): 452650. Population (2035): 464134. Population (2040): 475897. Population (2045): 487949. Population (2050): 500297. Population (2055): 512952. Population (2060): 525921. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 90000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 9000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3211. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 32. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1926. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 32. G. Minimal-regret population: 32. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 14000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 394138. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 9000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 32. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 409297. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 9000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1926. Minimal-regret population (2020): 32. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MYANMAR Historical data: Population (1965): 23993000. Population (1970): 26851000. Population (1975): 30157000. Population (1980): 33705000. Population (1985): 37145000. Population (1990): 40506000. Population (1995): 44094000. Population (2000): 47544000. Population (2005): 50723072. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.7970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1740 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 258. Land area (2003, hectares): 65755000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 9990000. Number of plant species (1994): 7000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 3884000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 53629772. Population (2015): 56310452. Population (2020): 58807732. Population (2025): 61160253. Population (2030): 63401874. Population (2035): 65561582. Population (2040): 67663811. Population (2045): 69728939. Population (2050): 71773847. Population (2055): 73812475. Population (2060): 75856322. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 99900000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 9990000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3563891. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 35639. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2138335. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 35639. G. Minimal-regret population: 35639. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3884000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 3884000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 48905818. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 9990000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 35639. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3884000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2513000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 50573310. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 9990000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2138335. Minimal-regret population (2020): 35639. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): YANGON (2513) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MONGOLIA Historical data: Population (1965): 1094000. Population (1970): 1256000. Population (1975): 1447000. Population (1980): 1663000. Population (1985): 1909000. Population (1990): 2216000. Population (1995): 2392000. Population (2000): 2500000. Population (2005): 2645695. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.3960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.2605 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 156650000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1199000. Number of plant species (1994): 2272 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 515000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2778718. Population (2015): 2902580. Population (2020): 3019202. Population (2025): 3130268. Population (2030): 3237223. Population (2035): 3341285. Population (2040): 3443471. Population (2045): 3544621. Population (2050): 3645433. Population (2055): 3746479. Population (2060): 3848233. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 11990000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1199000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 427738. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4277. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 256643. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4277. G. Minimal-regret population: 4277. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 515000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 515000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2180458. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1199000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4277. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 515000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2778718. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1199000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 256643. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4277. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: N MARIANA IS Historical data: Population (1965): 10000. Population (1970): 10000. Population (1975): 15000. Population (1980): 17000. Population (1985): 28000. Population (1990): 44000. Population (1995): 55000. Population (2000): 70000. Population (2005): 84900. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 46000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 6000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 3000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 99190. Population (2015): 112545. Population (2020): 124825. Population (2025): 136019. Population (2030): 146197. Population (2035): 155473. Population (2040): 163979. Population (2045): 171848. Population (2050): 179205. Population (2055): 186161. Population (2060): 192813. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 60000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 6000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2140. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1284. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21. G. Minimal-regret population: 21. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 3000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 93780. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 6000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 21. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 3000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 99190. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 6000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1284. Minimal-regret population (2020): 21. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MOZAMBIQUE Historical data: Population (1965): 8416000. Population (1970): 9392000. Population (1975): 10592000. Population (1980): 12084000. Population (1985): 13253000. Population (1990): 13465000. Population (1995): 15949000. Population (2000): 17861000. Population (2005): 19498955. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.9970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8968 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 431. Land area (2003, hectares): 78409000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000000. Number of plant species (1994): 5500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1330000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20984896. Population (2015): 22338547. Population (2020): 23578838. Population (2025): 24725072. Population (2030): 25795449. Population (2035): 26806325. Population (2040): 27771947. Population (2045): 28704466. Population (2050): 29614094. Population (2055): 30509332. Population (2060): 31397219. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1426983. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14270. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856190. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14270. G. Minimal-regret population: 14270. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1330000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1330000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 19234949. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14270. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1330000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 883000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 19823089. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856190. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14270. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MAPUTO (883) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MAURITANIA Historical data: Population (1965): 1122000. Population (1970): 1262000. Population (1975): 1423000. Population (1980): 1609000. Population (1985): 1812000. Population (1990): 2030000. Population (1995): 2300000. Population (2000): 2645000. Population (2005): 3052714. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.5970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.2436 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 102522000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 488000. Number of plant species (1994): 1100 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 135000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3440800. Population (2015): 3796591. Population (2020): 4120519. Population (2025): 4415104. Population (2030): 4683933. Population (2035): 4930970. Population (2040): 5160121. Population (2045): 5374992. Population (2050): 5578785. Population (2055): 5774262. Population (2060): 5963765. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 4880000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 488000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 174092. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1741. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 104455. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1741. G. Minimal-regret population: 1741. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 135000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 135000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3238840. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 488000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1741. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 135000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3440800. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 488000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 104455. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1741. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:09 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MONTSERRAT Historical data: Population (1965): 12000. Population (1970): 12000. Population (1975): 12000. Population (1980): 12000. Population (1985): 11000. Population (1990): 11000. Population (1995): 10000. Population (2000): 4000. Population (2005): 1905. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 10000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1037. Population (2015): 656. Population (2020): 465. Population (2025): 359. Population (2030): 296. Population (2035): 257. Population (2040): 231. Population (2045): 214. Population (2050): 204. Population (2055): 197. Population (2060): 193. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 20000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 713. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 428. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7. G. Minimal-regret population: 7. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 933. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1037. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 428. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MARTINIQUE Historical data: Population (1965): 311000. Population (1970): 325000. Population (1975): 328000. Population (1980): 326000. Population (1985): 341000. Population (1990): 360000. Population (1995): 373000. Population (2000): 386000. Population (2005): 396926. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 106000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 11000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 98000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 408515. Population (2015): 420077. Population (2020): 431675. Population (2025): 443364. Population (2030): 455186. Population (2035): 467177. Population (2040): 479369. Population (2045): 491787. Population (2050): 504454. Population (2055): 517390. Population (2060): 530612. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 110000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 11000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3924. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 39. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2355. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 39. G. Minimal-regret population: 39. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 98000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 98000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 301184. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 11000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 39. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 98000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 408515. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 11000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2355. Minimal-regret population (2020): 39. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MAURITIUS Historical data: Population (1965): 753000. Population (1970): 826000. Population (1975): 892000. Population (1980): 966000. Population (1985): 1016000. Population (1990): 1057000. Population (1995): 1125000. Population (2000): 1186000. Population (2005): 1244930. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9680 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0023 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 203000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 100000. Number of plant species (1994): 700 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 143000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1300019. Population (2015): 1351925. Population (2020): 1401396. Population (2025): 1449070. Population (2030): 1495484. Population (2035): 1541086. Population (2040): 1586249. Population (2045): 1631278. Population (2050): 1676427. Population (2055): 1721906. Population (2060): 1767886. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 100000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 35675. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 357. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 21405. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 357. G. Minimal-regret population: 357. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 143000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 143000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1134772. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 100000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 357. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 143000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1300019. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 100000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 21405. Minimal-regret population (2020): 357. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MALAWI Historical data: Population (1965): 3975000. Population (1970): 4518000. Population (1975): 5244000. Population (1980): 6183000. Population (1985): 7254000. Population (1990): 9456000. Population (1995): 10047000. Population (2000): 11370000. Population (2005): 12576845. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.9880 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.0151 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 9408000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2200000. Number of plant species (1994): 3600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 566000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 13668154. Population (2015): 14660500. Population (2020): 15565656. Population (2025): 16396816. Population (2030): 17167082. Population (2035): 17888614. Population (2040): 18572231. Population (2045): 19227295. Population (2050): 19861751. Population (2055): 20482255. Population (2060): 21094341. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 22000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2200000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 784841. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7848. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 470905. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7848. G. Minimal-regret population: 7848. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 566000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 566000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 12898155. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2200000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7848. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 566000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 13668154. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2200000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 470905. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7848. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: MALAYSIA Historical data: Population (1965): 9502000. Population (1970): 10853000. Population (1975): 12258000. Population (1980): 13763000. Population (1985): 15677000. Population (1990): 17845000. Population (1995): 20363000. Population (2000): 23001000. Population (2005): 25332550. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8480 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9140 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2172. Land area (2003, hectares): 32855000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1800000. Number of plant species (1994): 15000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 13 City population (1993): 3040000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 27445873. Population (2015): 29368140. Population (2020): 31123548. Population (2025): 32738333. Population (2030): 34238097. Population (2035): 35646348. Population (2040): 36983860. Population (2045): 38268520. Population (2050): 39515463. Population (2055): 40737342. Population (2060): 41944660. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 18000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1800000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 642143. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6421. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 385286. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6421. G. Minimal-regret population: 6421. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 13 City population: 3040000. Number of cities targeted: 13 City population destroyed: 3040000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 23348468. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1800000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6421. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 13 City population: 3040000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 920000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 26205869. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1800000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 385286. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6421. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): KUALA LUMPUR (920) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NAMIBIA Historical data: Population (1965): 704000. Population (1970): 800000. Population (1975): 921000. Population (1980): 1018000. Population (1985): 1142000. Population (1990): 1409000. Population (1995): 1646000. Population (2000): 1894000. Population (2005): 2050529. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.7950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4950 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 604. Land area (2003, hectares): 82329000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 816000. Number of plant species (1994): 3128 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 36000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2188975. Population (2015): 2315578. Population (2020): 2432269. Population (2025): 2540902. Population (2030): 2643165. Population (2035): 2740536. Population (2040): 2834286. Population (2045): 2925484. Population (2050): 3015024. Population (2055): 3103646. Population (2060): 3191960. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8160000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 816000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 291105. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2911. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 174663. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2911. G. Minimal-regret population: 2911. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 36000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 36000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2141100. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 816000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2911. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 36000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2188975. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 816000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 174663. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2911. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NAURU Historical data: Population (1965): 6000. Population (1970): 6000. Population (1975): 7000. Population (1980): 7000. Population (1985): 8000. Population (1990): 9000. Population (1995): 11000. Population (2000): 12000. Population (2005): 13913. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 8000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 15449. Population (2015): 16850. Population (2020): 18124. Population (2025): 19285. Population (2030): 20349. Population (2035): 21332. Population (2040): 22251. Population (2045): 23120. Population (2050): 23949. Population (2055): 24751. Population (2060): 25534. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 8000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 8000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4213. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 8000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 15449. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NEW CALEDONIA Historical data: Population (1965): 91000. Population (1970): 105000. Population (1975): 129000. Population (1980): 143000. Population (1985): 155000. Population (1990): 171000. Population (1995): 193000. Population (2000): 215000. Population (2005): 237360. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.8231 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1828000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 98000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 257958. Population (2015): 276688. Population (2020): 293772. Population (2025): 309460. Population (2030): 323998. Population (2035): 337616. Population (2040): 350519. Population (2045): 362883. Population (2050): 374857. Population (2055): 386569. Population (2060): 398121. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 70000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2497. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1498. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. G. Minimal-regret population: 25. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 98000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 98000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 126974. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 25. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 98000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 257958. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1498. Minimal-regret population (2020): 25. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NIGER Historical data: Population (1965): 3617000. Population (1970): 4141000. Population (1975): 4790000. Population (1980): 5586000. Population (1985): 6534000. Population (1990): 7650000. Population (1995): 9036000. Population (2000): 10742000. Population (2005): 12773100. Total fertility rate (2003): 7.0960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.9062 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 126670000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4489000. Number of plant species (1994): 1170 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 225000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 14746534. Population (2015): 16577774. Population (2020): 18254796. Population (2025): 19781045. Population (2030): 21169281. Population (2035): 22436924. Population (2040): 23602897. Population (2045): 24685681. Population (2050): 25702257. Population (2055): 26667635. Population (2060): 27594743. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 44890000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4489000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1601432. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16014. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 960859. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16014. G. Minimal-regret population: 16014. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 225000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 225000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14379339. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4489000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16014. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 225000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 14746534. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4489000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 960859. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16014. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NIGERIA Historical data: Population (1965): 42283000. Population (1970): 47980000. Population (1975): 54886000. Population (1980): 64325000. Population (1985): 74044000. Population (1990): 86018000. Population (1995): 99717000. Population (2000): 114746000. Population (2005): 129887083. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.6460 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.4265 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 716. Land area (2003, hectares): 91077000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 28500000. Number of plant species (1994): 4614 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 28 City population (1993): 7119000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 143849846. Population (2015): 156573010. Population (2020): 168141588. Population (2025): 178688438. Population (2030): 188365176. Population (2035): 197323741. Population (2040): 205705932. Population (2045): 213638355. Population (2050): 221230808. Population (2055): 228576640. Population (2060): 235754159. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 285000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 28500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 10167257. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 101673. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 6100354. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 101673. G. Minimal-regret population: 101673. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 28 City population: 7119000. Number of cities targeted: 28 City population destroyed: 7119000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 133580112. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 28500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 101673. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 28 City population: 7119000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1908000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 141097401. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 28500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 6100354. Minimal-regret population (2020): 101673. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Lagos (1061), Ibadan (847) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NICARAGUA Historical data: Population (1965): 1809000. Population (1970): 2123000. Population (1975): 2497000. Population (1980): 2919000. Population (1985): 3400000. Population (1990): 3824000. Population (1995): 4426000. Population (2000): 5073000. Population (2005): 5715362. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.4380 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.5505 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 545. Land area (2003, hectares): 12140000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1935000. Number of plant species (1994): 7000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 608000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6306122. Population (2015): 6843974. Population (2020): 7333104. Population (2025): 7779475. Population (2030): 8189669. Population (2035): 8570169. Population (2040): 8926968. Population (2045): 9265377. Population (2050): 9589985. Population (2055): 9904678. Population (2060): 10212713. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 19350000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1935000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 690303. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6903. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 414182. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6903. G. Minimal-regret population: 6903. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 608000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 608000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5439850. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1935000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6903. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 608000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6306122. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1935000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 414182. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6903. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NIUE Historical data: Population (1965): 5000. Population (1970): 5000. Population (1975): 4000. Population (1980): 3000. Population (1985): 3000. Population (1990): 2000. Population (1995): 2000. Population (2000): 2000. Population (2005): 2002. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 26000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2014. Population (2015): 2035. Population (2020): 2062. Population (2025): 2096. Population (2030): 2134. Population (2035): 2176. Population (2040): 2222. Population (2045): 2271. Population (2050): 2323. Population (2055): 2377. Population (2060): 2433. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1007. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2014. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NETHERLANDS Historical data: Population (1965): 12295000. Population (1970): 13039000. Population (1975): 13666000. Population (1980): 14150000. Population (1985): 14492000. Population (1990): 14952000. Population (1995): 15459000. Population (2000): 15898000. Population (2005): 16324356. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.4808 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4839. Land area (2003, hectares): 3388000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 905000. Number of plant species (1994): 1170 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 25 City population (1993): 7461000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 16757663. Population (2015): 17197572. Population (2020): 17645136. Population (2025): 18101260. Population (2030): 18566724. Population (2035): 19042210. Population (2040): 19528330. Population (2045): 20025635. Population (2050): 20534632. Population (2055): 21055795. Population (2060): 21589573. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 9050000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 905000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 322855. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3229. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 193713. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3229. G. Minimal-regret population: 3229. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 25 City population: 7461000. Number of cities targeted: 25 City population destroyed: 7461000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8669888. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 905000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3229. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 25 City population: 7461000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 3775000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 12665537. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 905000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 193713. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3229. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): AMSTERDAM (1086), Rotterdam (1065), 's-Hertogenbosch (693), Utrecht (541), Eindhoven (390) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NORWAY Historical data: Population (1965): 3723000. Population (1970): 3877000. Population (1975): 4007000. Population (1980): 4086000. Population (1985): 4153000. Population (1990): 4241000. Population (1995): 4359000. Population (2000): 4473000. Population (2005): 4576642. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.8000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5275 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5919. Land area (2003, hectares): 30683000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 880000. Number of plant species (1994): 1650 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1219000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4685718. Population (2015): 4798896. Population (2020): 4915999. Population (2025): 5036903. Population (2030): 5161530. Population (2035): 5289833. Population (2040): 5421798. Population (2045): 5557427. Population (2050): 5696746. Population (2055): 5839792. Population (2060): 5986617. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 8800000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 880000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 313936. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3139. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 188362. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3139. G. Minimal-regret population: 3139. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1219000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1219000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3375351. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 880000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3139. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1219000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 759000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3869829. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 880000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 188362. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3139. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): OSLO (759) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NEPAL Historical data: Population (1965): 10980000. Population (1970): 12105000. Population (1975): 13395000. Population (1980): 14881000. Population (1985): 16588000. Population (1990): 18625000. Population (1995): 20938000. Population (2000): 23518000. Population (2005): 26199433. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.0700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1942 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 357. Land area (2003, hectares): 14300000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3100000. Number of plant species (1994): 6500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 235000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28662368. Population (2015): 30902048. Population (2020): 32941247. Population (2025): 34807771. Population (2030): 36530410. Population (2035): 38136547. Population (2040): 39650931. Population (2045): 41095202. Population (2050): 42487858. Population (2055): 43844475. Population (2060): 45178038. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 31000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3100000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1105912. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11059. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 663547. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11059. G. Minimal-regret population: 11059. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 235000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 28340672. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3100000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11059. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 235000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 28662368. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3100000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 663547. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11059. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: NEW ZEALAND Historical data: Population (1965): 2628000. Population (1970): 2820000. Population (1975): 3083000. Population (1980): 3113000. Population (1985): 3247000. Population (1990): 3360000. Population (1995): 3604000. Population (2000): 3784000. Population (2005): 3936976. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9400 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7639 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4613. Land area (2003, hectares): 26799000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1500000. Number of plant species (1994): 2160 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 2320000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4082866. Population (2015): 4223220. Population (2020): 4359657. Population (2025): 4493529. Population (2030): 4625957. Population (2035): 4757867. Population (2040): 4890021. Population (2045): 5023051. Population (2050): 5157480. Population (2055): 5293742. Population (2060): 5432204. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 15000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 535119. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5351. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 321071. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5351. G. Minimal-regret population: 5351. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2320000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 2320000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1454606. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 5351. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2320000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 896000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3067814. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 321071. Minimal-regret population (2020): 5351. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Auckland (896) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: OMAN Historical data: Population (1965): 642000. Population (1970): 747000. Population (1975): 917000. Population (1980): 1187000. Population (1985): 1527000. Population (1990): 1845000. Population (1995): 2239000. Population (2000): 2609000. Population (2005): 3008274. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.9630 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3686 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4406. Land area (2003, hectares): 30950000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 38000. Number of plant species (1994): 1018 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 6000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3389465. Population (2015): 3738879. Population (2020): 4056984. Population (2025): 4346278. Population (2030): 4610302. Population (2035): 4852954. Population (2040): 5078072. Population (2045): 5289199. Population (2050): 5489475. Population (2055): 5681612. Population (2060): 5867905. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 380000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 38000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 13556. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 136. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 8134. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 136. G. Minimal-regret population: 136. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 6000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3380382. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 38000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 136. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3389465. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 38000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 8134. Minimal-regret population (2020): 136. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PAKISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): 54762000. Population (1970): 61840000. Population (1975): 70275000. Population (1980): 80781000. Population (1985): 95168000. Population (1990): 110901000. Population (1995): 125125000. Population (2000): 142654000. Population (2005): 160458820. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.4960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.4112 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 457. Land area (2003, hectares): 77088000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 21488000. Number of plant species (1994): 4929 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 23 City population (1993): 15383000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 176833637. Population (2015): 191738451. Population (2020): 205294425. Population (2025): 217669721. Population (2030): 229048176. Population (2035): 239609969. Population (2040): 249521012. Population (2045): 258928156. Population (2050): 267958009. Population (2055): 276717781. Population (2060): 285297167. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 214880000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 21488000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 7665755. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 76658. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 4599453. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 76658. G. Minimal-regret population: 76658. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 23 City population: 15383000. Number of cities targeted: 23 City population destroyed: 15383000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 155093522. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 21488000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 76658. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 23 City population: 15383000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 12176000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 159625834. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 21488000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 4599453. Minimal-regret population (2020): 76658. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Karachi (5181), Lahore (2953), Faisalabad (Lyallpur) (1104), Rawalpindi (795), Hyderabad (752), Multan (732), Gujranwala (659) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PANAMA Historical data: Population (1965): 1303000. Population (1970): 1506000. Population (1975): 1723000. Population (1980): 1949000. Population (1985): 2176000. Population (1990): 2411000. Population (1995): 2670000. Population (2000): 2950000. Population (2005): 3228700. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4190 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4721 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1069. Land area (2003, hectares): 7443000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 548000. Number of plant species (1994): 9000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 745000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3483122. Population (2015): 3714732. Population (2020): 3926661. Population (2025): 4122167. Population (2030): 4304357. Population (2035): 4476046. Population (2040): 4639699. Population (2045): 4797423. Population (2050): 4950995. Population (2055): 5101897. Population (2060): 5251355. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5480000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 548000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 195497. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1955. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 117298. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1955. G. Minimal-regret population: 1955. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 745000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 745000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2511240. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 548000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1955. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 745000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 3483122. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 548000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 117298. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1955. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PERU Historical data: Population (1965): 11467000. Population (1970): 13193000. Population (1975): 15161000. Population (1980): 17324000. Population (1985): 19516000. Population (1990): 21753000. Population (1995): 23837000. Population (2000): 25952000. Population (2005): 27936823. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6780 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4806 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 451. Land area (2003, hectares): 128000000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3700000. Number of plant species (1994): 17121 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 17 City population (1993): 10959000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 29747292. Population (2015): 31405790. Population (2020): 32938085. Population (2025): 34368515. Population (2030): 35718978. Population (2035): 37008561. Population (2040): 38253551. Population (2045): 39467641. Population (2050): 40662236. Population (2055): 41846774. Population (2060): 43029047. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 37000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1319960. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 791976. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 13200. G. Minimal-regret population: 13200. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 17 City population: 10959000. Number of cities targeted: 17 City population destroyed: 10959000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 16071050. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 13200. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 17 City population: 10959000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 6415000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 21741717. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 791976. Minimal-regret population (2020): 13200. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): LIMA (6415) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PHILIPPINES Historical data: Population (1965): 31567000. Population (1970): 36551000. Population (1975): 42019000. Population (1980): 48088000. Population (1985): 54266000. Population (1990): 61104000. Population (1995): 68396000. Population (2000): 75711000. Population (2005): 82708355. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.2370 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9306 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 534. Land area (2003, hectares): 29817000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5650000. Number of plant species (1994): 8000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 51 City population (1993): 17864000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 89085428. Population (2015): 94893253. Population (2020): 100212127. Population (2025): 105124502. Population (2030): 109708427. Population (2035): 114034234. Population (2040): 118163288. Population (2045): 122147981. Population (2050): 126032386. Population (2055): 129853217. Population (2060): 133640868. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 56500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5650000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2015614. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20156. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1209368. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 20156. G. Minimal-regret population: 20156. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 51 City population: 17864000. Number of cities targeted: 51 City population destroyed: 17864000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 65817662. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5650000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 20156. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 51 City population: 17864000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 7588000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 79202098. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5650000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1209368. Minimal-regret population (2020): 20156. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MANILA (6720), Davao (868) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PALAU Historical data: Population (1965): 10000. Population (1970): 11000. Population (1975): 13000. Population (1980): 12000. Population (1985): 14000. Population (1990): 15000. Population (1995): 17000. Population (2000): 19000. Population (2005): 21288. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 46000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 9000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 23087. Population (2015): 24724. Population (2020): 26217. Population (2025): 27591. Population (2030): 28865. Population (2035): 30061. Population (2040): 31196. Population (2045): 32285. Population (2050): 33341. Population (2055): 34376. Population (2060): 35397. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 9000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 10865. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 9000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 23087. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PAPUA NEW GUI Historical data: Population (1965): 2289000. Population (1970): 2554000. Population (1975): 2866000. Population (1980): 3241000. Population (1985): 3655000. Population (1990): 4114000. Population (1995): 4702000. Population (2000): 5334000. Population (2005): 5951101. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.2970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.2749 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 45286000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 210000. Number of plant species (1994): 10000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 174000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6516651. Population (2015): 7030975. Population (2020): 7499172. Population (2025): 7927557. Population (2030): 8322712. Population (2035): 8690918. Population (2040): 9037867. Population (2045): 9368542. Population (2050): 9687208. Population (2055): 9997459. Population (2060): 10302291. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 2100000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 210000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 74917. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 749. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 44950. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 749. G. Minimal-regret population: 749. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 174000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 174000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6275499. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 210000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 749. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 174000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6516651. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 210000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 44950. Minimal-regret population (2020): 749. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: POLAND Historical data: Population (1965): 31445000. Population (1970): 32664000. Population (1975): 34015000. Population (1980): 35574000. Population (1985): 37202000. Population (1990): 38111000. Population (1995): 38595000. Population (2000): 38671000. Population (2005): 38597040. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2400 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.0942 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2282. Land area (2003, hectares): 30435000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 13974000. Number of plant species (1994): 2300 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 43 City population (1993): 11774000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 38739116. Population (2015): 39069506. Population (2020): 39549763. Population (2025): 40151409. Population (2030): 40853114. Population (2035): 41638766. Population (2040): 42496130. Population (2045): 43415890. Population (2050): 44390953. Population (2055): 45415934. Population (2060): 46486774. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 139740000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 13974000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 4985167. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 49852. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2991100. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 49852. G. Minimal-regret population: 49852. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 43 City population: 11774000. Number of cities targeted: 43 City population destroyed: 11774000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 26921151. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 13974000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 49852. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 43 City population: 11774000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 4485000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 34237369. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 13974000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2991100. Minimal-regret population (2020): 49852. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): WARSZAWA (1654), Lodz (847), Krakow (751), Wroclaw (643), Poznan (590) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PUERTO RICO Historical data: Population (1965): 2583000. Population (1970): 2716000. Population (1975): 2939000. Population (1980): 3197000. Population (1985): 3378000. Population (1990): 3528000. Population (1995): 3683000. Population (2000): 3816000. Population (2005): 3922158. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7615 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 887000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 35000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 3007000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4028156. Population (2015): 4135401. Population (2020): 4244217. Population (2025): 4354876. Population (2030): 4467610. Population (2035): 4582621. Population (2040): 4700082. Population (2045): 4820149. Population (2050): 4942962. Population (2055): 5068649. Population (2060): 5197331. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 350000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 35000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 12486. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 125. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 7492. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 125. G. Minimal-regret population: 125. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3007000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 3007000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 739352. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 35000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 125. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 3007000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1816000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2041968. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 35000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 7492. Minimal-regret population (2020): 125. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SAN JUAN (1816) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: KOREA, DPR OF Historical data: Population (1965): 12688000. Population (1970): 14397000. Population (1975): 16018000. Population (1980): 17196000. Population (1985): 18532000. Population (1990): 19956000. Population (1995): 21373000. Population (2000): 22268000. Population (2005): 22935792. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5475 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 837. Land area (2003, hectares): 12041000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2500000. Number of plant species (1994): 2898 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 4320000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 23591832. Population (2015): 24248729. Population (2020): 24909682. Population (2025): 25577340. Population (2030): 26253909. Population (2035): 26941242. Population (2040): 27640906. Population (2045): 28354245. Population (2050): 29082426. Population (2055): 29826477. Population (2060): 30587316. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 25000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 891865. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8919. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 535119. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8919. G. Minimal-regret population: 8919. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4320000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 4320000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 18823352. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 8919. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 4320000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1600000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 21825728. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 535119. Minimal-regret population (2020): 8919. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): P'YONGYANG (1600) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PORTUGAL Historical data: Population (1965): 8999000. Population (1970): 8680000. Population (1975): 9093000. Population (1980): 9766000. Population (1985): 10011000. Population (1990): 9899000. Population (1995): 9916000. Population (2000): 10016000. Population (2005): 10107106. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.4200 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7304 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2633. Land area (2003, hectares): 9150000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1990000. Number of plant species (1994): 2500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 3845000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10233557. Population (2015): 10390969. Population (2020): 10573933. Population (2025): 10778359. Population (2030): 11001142. Population (2035): 11239916. Population (2040): 11492882. Population (2045): 11758672. Population (2050): 12036257. Population (2055): 12324870. Population (2060): 12623951. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 19900000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1990000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 709924. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7099. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 425955. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 7099. G. Minimal-regret population: 7099. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 3845000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 3845000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6265422. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1990000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 7099. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 3845000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 3735000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6378944. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1990000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 425955. Minimal-regret population (2020): 7099. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): LISBOA (2561), Porto (1174) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: PARAGUAY Historical data: Population (1965): 2081000. Population (1970): 2350000. Population (1975): 2659000. Population (1980): 3114000. Population (1985): 3609000. Population (1990): 4219000. Population (1995): 4829000. Population (2000): 5470000. Population (2005): 6134518. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.8370 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3868 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 698. Land area (2003, hectares): 39730000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3020000. Number of plant species (1994): 7500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 719000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6746510. Population (2015): 7303364. Population (2020): 7809935. Population (2025): 8272694. Population (2030): 8698598. Population (2035): 9094407. Population (2040): 9466310. Population (2045): 9819767. Population (2050): 10159474. Population (2055): 10489400. Population (2060): 10812862. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30200000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3020000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1077372. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10774. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 646423. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 10774. G. Minimal-regret population: 10774. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 719000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 719000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5742008. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3020000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 10774. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 719000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 719000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5742008. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3020000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 646423. Minimal-regret population (2020): 10774. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): ASUNCION (719) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: FR POLYNESIA Historical data: Population (1965): 93000. Population (1970): 111000. Population (1975): 130000. Population (1980): 151000. Population (1985): 174000. Population (1990): 195000. Population (1995): 215000. Population (2000): 233000. Population (2005): 252114. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.3173 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 366000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 37000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 269314. Population (2015): 285035. Population (2020): 299518. Population (2025): 312992. Population (2030): 325666. Population (2035): 337725. Population (2040): 349328. Population (2045): 360608. Population (2050): 371677. Population (2055): 382627. Population (2060): 393535. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 37000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 37000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 222967. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 37000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 269314. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: QATAR Historical data: Population (1965): 70000. Population (1970): 111000. Population (1975): 171000. Population (1980): 229000. Population (1985): 361000. Population (1990): 467000. Population (1995): 523000. Population (2000): 581000. Population (2005): 629880. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4780 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1418 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 19473. Land area (2003, hectares): 1100000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 18000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 217000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 674509. Population (2015): 715249. Population (2020): 752703. Population (2025): 787464. Population (2030): 820079. Population (2035): 851030. Population (2040): 880736. Population (2045): 909550. Population (2050): 937768. Population (2055): 965634. Population (2060): 993351. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 180000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 18000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 6421. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 64. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3853. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 64. G. Minimal-regret population: 64. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 217000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 217000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 394646. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 18000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 64. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 217000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 217000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 394646. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 18000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3853. Minimal-regret population (2020): 64. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): DOHA (217) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: REUNION Historical data: Population (1965): 390000. Population (1970): 461000. Population (1975): 483000. Population (1980): 506000. Population (1985): 555000. Population (1990): 604000. Population (1995): 664000. Population (2000): 723000. Population (2005): 778820. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 250000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 34000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 122000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 831568. Population (2015): 879797. Population (2020): 924242. Population (2025): 965611. Population (2030): 1004544. Population (2035): 1041608. Population (2040): 1077285. Population (2045): 1111985. Population (2050): 1146049. Population (2055): 1179758. Population (2060): 1213347. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 340000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 34000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 12129. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 121. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 7278. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 121. G. Minimal-regret population: 121. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 122000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 122000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 678780. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 34000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 121. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 122000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 831568. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 34000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 7278. Minimal-regret population (2020): 121. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ROMANIA Historical data: Population (1965): 19032000. Population (1970): 20253000. Population (1975): 21245000. Population (1980): 22201000. Population (1985): 22725000. Population (1990): 23207000. Population (1995): 22681000. Population (2000): 22480000. Population (2005): 22284834. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.2710 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1631. Land area (2003, hectares): 23034000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 9402000. Number of plant species (1994): 3175 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 25 City population (1993): 7086000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 22249179. Population (2015): 22347620. Population (2020): 22551119. Population (2025): 22838432. Population (2030): 23193797. Population (2035): 23605391. Population (2040): 24064277. Population (2045): 24563664. Population (2050): 25098380. Population (2055): 25664489. Population (2060): 26259005. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 94020000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 9402000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 3354124. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 33541. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 2012475. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 33541. G. Minimal-regret population: 33541. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 25 City population: 7086000. Number of cities targeted: 25 City population destroyed: 7086000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 15298088. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 9402000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 33541. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 25 City population: 7086000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2066000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 20222513. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 9402000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 2012475. Minimal-regret population (2020): 33541. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BUCURESTI (2066) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: RUSSIAN FED Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 148141000. Population (2000): 145612000. Population (2005): 142147530. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4483 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4249. Land area (2003, hectares): 1688850000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 123860000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 166 City population (1993): 71401000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 140198316. Population (2015): 139496822. Population (2020): 139744760. Population (2025): 140729910. Population (2030): 142298263. Population (2035): 144336258. Population (2040): 146759118. Population (2045): 149502965. Population (2050): 152519365. Population (2055): 155771460. Population (2060): 159231176. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1238600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 123860000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 44186541. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 441865. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 26511925. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 441865. G. Minimal-regret population: 441865. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 166 City population: 71401000. Number of cities targeted: 166 City population destroyed: 71401000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 72625531. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 123860000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 441865. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 166 City population: 71401000. Number of cities targeted: 68 City population destroyed: 54362000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 88750973. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 123860000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 26511925. Minimal-regret population (2020): 441865. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: RWANDA Historical data: Population (1965): 3202000. Population (1970): 3776000. Population (1975): 4410000. Population (1980): 5157000. Population (1985): 5944000. Population (1990): 6775000. Population (1995): 5136000. Population (2000): 7724000. Population (2005): 8870358. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.6940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.8025 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2467000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000000. Number of plant species (1994): 2288 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 116000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 9800191. Population (2015): 10646989. Population (2020): 11417013. Population (2025): 12119463. Population (2030): 12764606. Population (2035): 13362621. Population (2040): 13922943. Population (2045): 14453959. Population (2050): 14962924. Population (2055): 15455991. Population (2060): 15938316. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 356746. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3567. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214048. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3567. G. Minimal-regret population: 3567. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 116000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 116000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9578848. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3567. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 116000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 9800191. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214048. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3567. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SAUDI ARABIA Historical data: Population (1965): 4793000. Population (1970): 5745000. Population (1975): 7251000. Population (1980): 9604000. Population (1985): 12912000. Population (1990): 16554000. Population (1995): 18969000. Population (2000): 22147000. Population (2005): 25538424. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.2960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.8927 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5858. Land area (2003, hectares): 214969000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3600000. Number of plant species (1994): 1729 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 2227000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28700775. Population (2015): 31596441. Population (2020): 34231658. Population (2025): 36628643. Population (2030): 38817579. Population (2035): 40831187. Population (2040): 42701392. Population (2045): 44457509. Population (2050): 46125438. Population (2055): 47727483. Population (2060): 49282513. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 36000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3600000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1284285. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12843. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 770571. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12843. G. Minimal-regret population: 12843. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2227000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 2227000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 25331244. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3600000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 12843. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2227000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1595000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 26287483. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3600000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 770571. Minimal-regret population (2020): 12843. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): RIYADH (667), Jeddah (561), Makkah (367) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SUDAN Historical data: Population (1965): 12808000. Population (1970): 14469000. Population (1975): 16718000. Population (1980): 19387000. Population (1985): 22519000. Population (1990): 24927000. Population (1995): 28077000. Population (2000): 31437000. Population (2005): 35028951. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.3960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.2760 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 487. Land area (2003, hectares): 237600000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 16233000. Number of plant species (1994): 3132 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 10 City population (1993): 4590000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 38395442. Population (2015): 41457285. Population (2020): 44244026. Population (2025): 46792816. Population (2030): 49142635. Population (2035): 51330840. Population (2040): 53391352. Population (2045): 55353925. Population (2050): 57244049. Population (2055): 59083219. Population (2060): 60889369. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 162330000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 16233000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 5791055. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 57911. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3474633. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 57911. G. Minimal-regret population: 57911. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 10 City population: 4590000. Number of cities targeted: 10 City population destroyed: 4590000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 32118593. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 16233000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 57911. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 10 City population: 4590000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 3071000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 34195833. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 16233000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3474633. Minimal-regret population (2020): 57911. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Nyala (1267), KHARTOUM (925), Sharg el nil (879) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SENEGAL Historical data: Population (1965): 3626000. Population (1970): 4158000. Population (1975): 4806000. Population (1980): 5538000. Population (1985): 6375000. Population (1990): 7345000. Population (1995): 8338000. Population (2000): 9393000. Population (2005): 10546363. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.8950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3002 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 322. Land area (2003, hectares): 19253000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2460000. Number of plant species (1994): 2062 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 5 City population (1993): 1939000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11629712. Population (2015): 12615921. Population (2020): 13512835. Population (2025): 14331480. Population (2030): 15083973. Population (2035): 15782219. Population (2040): 16437199. Population (2045): 17058644. Population (2050): 17654949. Population (2055): 18233225. Population (2060): 18799424. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 24600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2460000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 877595. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8776. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 526557. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8776. G. Minimal-regret population: 8776. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1939000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 1939000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8925225. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2460000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 8776. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1939000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1375000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 9711883. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2460000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 526557. Minimal-regret population (2020): 8776. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): DAKAR (1375) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SINGAPORE Historical data: Population (1965): 1880000. Population (1970): 2075000. Population (1975): 2263000. Population (1980): 2414000. Population (1985): 2709000. Population (1990): 3016000. Population (1995): 3478000. Population (2000): 4016000. Population (2005): 4408384. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.3690 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.0443 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5948. Land area (2003, hectares): 61000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 2000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 2874000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4756549. Population (2015): 5073485. Population (2020): 5363464. Population (2025): 5630940. Population (2030): 5880164. Population (2035): 6114990. Population (2040): 6338791. Population (2045): 6554456. Population (2050): 6764418. Population (2055): 6970707. Population (2060): 7175002. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2874000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2874000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 826037. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2874000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2874000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 826037. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SINGAPORE (2874) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SOLOMON IS Historical data: Population (1965): 137000. Population (1970): 161000. Population (1975): 193000. Population (1980): 229000. Population (1985): 272000. Population (1990): 319000. Population (1995): 374000. Population (2000): 437000. Population (2005): 500907. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.2560 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.9668 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 2799000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 18000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 30000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 560143. Population (2015): 614281. Population (2020): 663522. Population (2025): 708335. Population (2030): 749314. Population (2035): 787084. Population (2040): 822245. Population (2045): 855344. Population (2050): 886858. Population (2055): 917200. Population (2060): 946716. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 180000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 18000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 6421. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 64. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3853. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 64. G. Minimal-regret population: 64. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 30000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 515212. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 18000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 64. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 30000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 560143. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 18000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3853. Minimal-regret population (2020): 64. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SIERRA LEONE Historical data: Population (1965): 2430000. Population (1970): 2657000. Population (1975): 2933000. Population (1980): 3239000. Population (1985): 3582000. Population (1990): 4054000. Population (1995): 4081000. Population (2000): 4415000. Population (2005): 5297840. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.5850 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9126 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 7162000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 500000. Number of plant species (1994): 2090 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 470000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6122921. Population (2015): 6889022. Population (2020): 7590845. Population (2025): 8229646. Population (2030): 8810645. Population (2035): 9341067. Population (2040): 9828799. Population (2045): 10281566. Population (2050): 10706477. Population (2055): 11109824. Population (2060): 11497031. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 5000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 178373. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1784. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 107024. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 1784. G. Minimal-regret population: 1784. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 470000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 470000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5417757. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 1784. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 470000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6122921. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 107024. Minimal-regret population (2020): 1784. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: EL SALVADOR Historical data: Population (1965): 3012000. Population (1970): 3598000. Population (1975): 4120000. Population (1980): 4586000. Population (1985): 4769000. Population (1990): 5110000. Population (1995): 5669000. Population (2000): 6209000. Population (2005): 6709575. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8280 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7920 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 683. Land area (2003, hectares): 2072000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 660000. Number of plant species (1994): 2500 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 5 City population (1993): 1177000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 7165064. Population (2015): 7581496. Population (2020): 7965208. Population (2025): 8322298. Population (2030): 8658319. Population (2035): 8978148. Population (2040): 9285971. Population (2045): 9585317. Population (2050): 9879135. Population (2055): 10169867. Population (2060): 10459533. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 6600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 660000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 235452. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2355. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 141271. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 2355. G. Minimal-regret population: 2355. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1177000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 1177000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5677450. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 660000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 2355. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 5 City population: 1177000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7165064. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 660000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 141271. Minimal-regret population (2020): 2355. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SAN MARINO Historical data: Population (1965): 17000. Population (1970): 19000. Population (1975): 20000. Population (1980): 21000. Population (1985): 22000. Population (1990): 23000. Population (1995): 25000. Population (2000): 27000. Population (2005): 27881. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 6000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 4000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 29361. Population (2015): 30734. Population (2020): 32020. Population (2025): 33239. Population (2030): 34408. Population (2035): 35541. Population (2040): 36649. Population (2045): 37742. Population (2050): 38829. Population (2055): 39916. Population (2060): 41009. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 4000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 4000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 24664. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 4000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 29361. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SOMALIA Historical data: Population (1965): 3173000. Population (1970): 3601000. Population (1975): 4134000. Population (1980): 6487000. Population (1985): 6632000. Population (1990): 7163000. Population (1995): 7356000. Population (2000): 8720000. Population (2005): 10661354. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.9460 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.2410 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 62734000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1045000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 230000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 12583281. Population (2015): 14391051. Population (2020): 16059937. Population (2025): 17584106. Population (2030): 18970204. Population (2035): 20232018. Population (2040): 21386593. Population (2045): 22451675. Population (2050): 23444196. Population (2055): 24379491. Population (2060): 25270985. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10450000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1045000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 372799. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3728. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 223680. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3728. G. Minimal-regret population: 3728. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 230000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 230000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 12189839. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1045000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3728. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 230000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 12583281. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1045000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 223680. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3728. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ST PIERRE & M Historical data: Population (1965): 5000. Population (1970): 5000. Population (1975): 6000. Population (1980): 6000. Population (1985): 6000. Population (1990): 6000. Population (1995): 6000. Population (2000): 6000. Population (2005): 6007. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 23000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 5000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6042. Population (2015): 6104. Population (2020): 6187. Population (2025): 6287. Population (2030): 6402. Population (2035): 6529. Population (2040): 6666. Population (2045): 6813. Population (2050): 6968. Population (2055): 7131. Population (2060): 7300. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 30000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1070. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11. G. Minimal-regret population: 11. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 5000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1007. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 5000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6042. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ST HELENA & D Historical data: Population (1965): 5000. Population (1970): 5000. Population (1975): 5000. Population (1980): 5000. Population (1985): 6000. Population (1990): 5000. Population (1995): 5000. Population (2000): 5000. Population (2005): 5006. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 31000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5035. Population (2015): 5086. Population (2020): 5156. Population (2025): 5239. Population (2030): 5335. Population (2035): 5441. Population (2040): 5555. Population (2045): 5678. Population (2050): 5807. Population (2055): 5942. Population (2060): 6083. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4028. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5035. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SAO TOME & PR Historical data: Population (1965): 65000. Population (1970): 74000. Population (1975): 82000. Population (1980): 94000. Population (1985): 104000. Population (1990): 116000. Population (1995): 131000. Population (2000): 149000. Population (2005): 168306. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.3470 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.0752 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 96000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 6000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 6000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 185872. Population (2015): 201868. Population (2020): 216415. Population (2025): 229686. Population (2030): 241876. Population (2035): 253179. Population (2040): 263772. Population (2045): 273813. Population (2050): 283440. Population (2055): 292768. Population (2060): 301894. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 60000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 6000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2140. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1284. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 21. G. Minimal-regret population: 21. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 6000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 177359. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 6000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 21. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 6000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 185872. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 6000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1284. Minimal-regret population (2020): 21. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SURINAME Historical data: Population (1965): 332000. Population (1970): 372000. Population (1975): 364000. Population (1980): 355000. Population (1985): 384000. Population (1990): 402000. Population (1995): 409000. Population (2000): 425000. Population (2005): 442227. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.3990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0666 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 15600000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 57000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 182000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 458501. Population (2015): 474172. Population (2020): 489418. Population (2025): 504388. Population (2030): 519207. Population (2035): 533975. Population (2040): 548778. Population (2045): 563684. Population (2050): 578751. Population (2055): 594027. Population (2060): 609553. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 570000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 57000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 20335. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 203. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 12201. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 203. G. Minimal-regret population: 203. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 182000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 182000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 254474. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 57000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 203. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 182000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 458501. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 57000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 12201. Minimal-regret population (2020): 203. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SLOVAKIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 5364000. Population (2000): 5391000. Population (2005): 5413131. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.1700 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.2045 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3452. Land area (2003, hectares): 4808000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1450000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 682000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5457670. Population (2015): 5523485. Population (2020): 5606512. Population (2025): 5703707. Population (2030): 5812777. Population (2035): 5931975. Population (2040): 6059977. Population (2045): 6195770. Population (2050): 6338587. Population (2055): 6487850. Population (2060): 6643126. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 14500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1450000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 517281. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5173. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 310369. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5173. G. Minimal-regret population: 5173. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 682000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 682000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4763761. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1450000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 5173. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 682000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5457670. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1450000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 310369. Minimal-regret population (2020): 5173. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SLOVENIA Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 1990000. Population (2000): 1990000. Population (2005): 1982302. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2200 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0501 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3555. Land area (2003, hectares): 2012000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 173000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 482000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1986035. Population (2015): 2000200. Population (2020): 2022619. Population (2025): 2051687. Population (2030): 2086206. Population (2035): 2125272. Population (2040): 2168201. Population (2045): 2214471. Population (2050): 2263686. Population (2055): 2315543. Population (2060): 2369814. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1730000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 173000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 61717. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 617. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 37030. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 617. G. Minimal-regret population: 617. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 482000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 482000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1504995. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 173000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 617. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 482000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1986035. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 173000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 37030. Minimal-regret population (2020): 617. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SWEDEN Historical data: Population (1965): 7734000. Population (1970): 8043000. Population (1975): 8193000. Population (1980): 8310000. Population (1985): 8350000. Population (1990): 8559000. Population (1995): 8827000. Population (2000): 8856000. Population (2005): 8898885. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.3579 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 5729. Land area (2003, hectares): 41162000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2694000. Number of plant species (1994): 4916 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 2544000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 8983618. Population (2015): 9100971. Population (2020): 9244858. Population (2025): 9410709. Population (2030): 9595066. Population (2035): 9795301. Population (2040): 10009414. Population (2045): 10235880. Population (2050): 10473547. Population (2055): 10721543. Population (2060): 10979225. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 26940000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2694000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 961073. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9611. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 576644. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9611. G. Minimal-regret population: 9611. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 2544000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 2544000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 6394479. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2694000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 9611. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 2544000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1314000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 7646303. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2694000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 576644. Minimal-regret population (2020): 9611. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): STOCKHOLM (880), Goteborg (434) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SWAZILAND Historical data: Population (1965): 392000. Population (1970): 443000. Population (1975): 515000. Population (1980): 596000. Population (1985): 702000. Population (1990): 847000. Population (1995): 939000. Population (2000): 1044000. Population (2005): 1100983. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.1960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5817 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1720000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 178000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 38000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1151300. Population (2015): 1198557. Population (2020): 1243451. Population (2025): 1286581. Population (2030): 1328454. Population (2035): 1369492. Population (2040): 1410047. Population (2045): 1450410. Population (2050): 1490821. Population (2055): 1531476. Population (2060): 1572540. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1780000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 178000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 63501. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 635. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 38100. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 635. G. Minimal-regret population: 635. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 38000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 38000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1104708. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 178000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 635. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 38000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1151300. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 178000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 38100. Minimal-regret population (2020): 635. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SEYCHELLES Historical data: Population (1965): 47000. Population (1970): 52000. Population (1975): 59000. Population (1980): 64000. Population (1985): 67000. Population (1990): 71000. Population (1995): 75000. Population (2000): 79000. Population (2005): 81036. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0100 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4488 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 45000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 24000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 83542. Population (2015): 86019. Population (2020): 88483. Population (2025): 90950. Population (2030): 93432. Population (2035): 95938. Population (2040): 98477. Population (2045): 101057. Population (2050): 103682. Population (2055): 106358. Population (2060): 109091. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 24000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 24000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 56809. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 24000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 83542. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SYRIA Historical data: Population (1965): 5416000. Population (1970): 6396000. Population (1975): 7548000. Population (1980): 8959000. Population (1985): 10766000. Population (1990): 12717000. Population (1995): 14596000. Population (2000): 16560000. Population (2005): 18579141. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.3960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.3209 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1077. Land area (2003, hectares): 18378000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4635000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 4512000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 20437924. Population (2015): 22129303. Population (2020): 23667908. Population (2025): 25073320. Population (2030): 26366640. Population (2035): 27568389. Population (2040): 28697371. Population (2045): 29770180. Population (2050): 30801091. Population (2055): 31802176. Population (2060): 32783523. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 46350000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4635000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1653517. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16535. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 992110. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16535. G. Minimal-regret population: 16535. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 4512000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 4512000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 14120035. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4635000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16535. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 4512000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 3003000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 16232999. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4635000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 992110. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16535. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TURKS & CAICO Historical data: Population (1965): 6000. Population (1970): 6000. Population (1975): 6000. Population (1980): 7000. Population (1985): 10000. Population (1990): 12000. Population (1995): 15000. Population (2000): 19000. Population (2005): 22265. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 43000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 4000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 25792. Population (2015): 29071. Population (2020): 32077. Population (2025): 34814. Population (2030): 37303. Population (2035): 39575. Population (2040): 41662. Population (2045): 43598. Population (2050): 45413. Population (2055): 47135. Population (2060): 48787. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 4000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 4000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 18914. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 4000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 25792. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CHAD Historical data: Population (1965): 3344000. Population (1970): 3697000. Population (1975): 4096000. Population (1980): 4505000. Population (1985): 5034000. Population (1990): 5822000. Population (1995): 6731000. Population (2000): 7861000. Population (2005): 9063619. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.1940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.8479 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 125920000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3600000. Number of plant species (1994): 1600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 179000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10184739. Population (2015): 11211264. Population (2020): 12145445. Population (2025): 12995181. Population (2030): 13771186. Population (2035): 14485067. Population (2040): 15148142. Population (2045): 15770803. Population (2050): 16362230. Population (2055): 16930326. Population (2060): 17481779. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 36000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3600000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1284285. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12843. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 770571. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12843. G. Minimal-regret population: 12843. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 179000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 179000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 9913892. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3600000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 12843. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 179000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 10184739. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3600000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 770571. Minimal-regret population (2020): 12843. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TOGO Historical data: Population (1965): 1637000. Population (1970): 2014000. Population (1975): 2264000. Population (1980): 2519000. Population (1985): 2974000. Population (1990): 3455000. Population (1995): 3869000. Population (2000): 4562000. Population (2005): 5134690. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.8970 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.1195 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 329. Land area (2003, hectares): 5439000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2510000. Number of plant species (1994): 2000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 148000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5652510. Population (2015): 6123751. Population (2020): 6552393. Population (2025): 6943835. Population (2030): 7303931. Population (2035): 7638389. Population (2040): 7952453. Population (2045): 8250752. Population (2050): 8537276. Population (2055): 8815397. Population (2060): 9087936. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 25100000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2510000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 895432. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8954. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 537259. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 8954. G. Minimal-regret population: 8954. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 148000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 148000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5436285. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2510000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 8954. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 148000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5652510. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2510000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 537259. Minimal-regret population (2020): 8954. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: THAILAND Historical data: Population (1965): 31211000. Population (1970): 36260000. Population (1975): 41297000. Population (1980): 46342000. Population (1985): 50622000. Population (1990): 54389000. Population (1995): 57828000. Population (2000): 60925000. Population (2005): 64068164. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.8000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6493 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1382. Land area (2003, hectares): 51089000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 15000000. Number of plant species (1994): 11000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 11 City population (1993): 7698000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 67032096. Population (2015): 69812538. Population (2020): 72450777. Population (2025): 74982432. Population (2030): 77437674. Population (2035): 79841755. Population (2040): 82215637. Population (2045): 84576645. Population (2050): 86939071. Population (2055): 89314713. Population (2060): 91713337. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 150000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 15000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 5351188. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 53512. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3210713. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 53512. G. Minimal-regret population: 53512. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 11 City population: 7698000. Number of cities targeted: 11 City population destroyed: 7698000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 58108857. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 15000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 53512. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 11 City population: 7698000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 5876000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 60220853. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 15000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3210713. Minimal-regret population (2020): 53512. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): BANGKOK (5876) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TAJIKISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 5741000. Population (2000): 6089000. Population (2005): 6344524. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.8660 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6289 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 518. Land area (2003, hectares): 14060000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 930000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 820000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 6583842. Population (2015): 6813546. Population (2020): 7036366. Population (2025): 7254585. Population (2030): 7470100. Population (2035): 7684477. Population (2040): 7899008. Population (2045): 8114760. Population (2050): 8332617. Population (2055): 8553313. Population (2060): 8777464. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 9300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 930000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 331774. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3318. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 199064. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 3318. G. Minimal-regret population: 3318. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 820000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 820000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 5643457. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 930000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 3318. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 820000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 6583842. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 930000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 199064. Minimal-regret population (2020): 3318. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TURKMENISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 4210000. Population (2000): 4643000. Population (2005): 5007728. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.4730 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 3494. Land area (2003, hectares): 46993000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1750000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 685000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 5338371. Population (2015): 5641010. Population (2020): 5920309. Population (2025): 6180709. Population (2030): 6426224. Population (2035): 6660363. Population (2040): 6886125. Population (2045): 7106038. Population (2050): 7322207. Population (2055): 7536376. Population (2060): 7749985. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 17500000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1750000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 624305. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6243. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 374583. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 6243. G. Minimal-regret population: 6243. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 685000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 685000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 4469777. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1750000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 6243. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 685000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 5338371. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1750000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 374583. Minimal-regret population (2020): 6243. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TIMOR-LESTE Historical data: Population (1965): 549000. Population (1970): 604000. Population (1975): 672000. Population (1980): 581000. Population (1985): 659000. Population (1990): 740000. Population (1995): 840000. Population (2000): 702000. Population (2005): 793076. Total fertility rate (2003): 7.5800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 5.2675 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1487000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 70000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 52000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 854467. Population (2015): 910374. Population (2020): 961566. Population (2025): 1008836. Population (2030): 1052934. Population (2035): 1094538. Population (2040): 1134240. Population (2045): 1172545. Population (2050): 1209877. Population (2055): 1246592. Population (2060): 1282982. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 700000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 70000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 24972. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 250. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 14983. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 250. G. Minimal-regret population: 250. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 52000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 52000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 801572. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 70000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 250. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 52000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 854467. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 70000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 14983. Minimal-regret population (2020): 250. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TOKELAU Historical data: Population (1965): 2000. Population (1970): 2000. Population (1975): 2000. Population (1980): 2000. Population (1985): 2000. Population (1990): 2000. Population (1995): 2000. Population (2000): 2000. Population (2005): 2002. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 2000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 2014. Population (2015): 2035. Population (2020): 2062. Population (2025): 2096. Population (2030): 2134. Population (2035): 2176. Population (2040): 2222. Population (2045): 2271. Population (2050): 2323. Population (2055): 2377. Population (2060): 2433. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 0. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2014. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TONGA Historical data: Population (1965): 80000. Population (1970): 94000. Population (1975): 93000. Population (1980): 97000. Population (1985): 97000. Population (1990): 99000. Population (1995): 99000. Population (2000): 101000. Population (2005): 105238. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.3960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.3561 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 72000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 17000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 18000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 108859. Population (2015): 112378. Population (2020): 115831. Population (2025): 119246. Population (2030): 122648. Population (2035): 126055. Population (2040): 129485. Population (2045): 132951. Population (2050): 136464. Population (2055): 140034. Population (2060): 143668. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 170000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 17000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 6065. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 61. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3639. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 61. G. Minimal-regret population: 61. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 18000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 18000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 89066. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 17000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 61. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 18000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 108859. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 17000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3639. Minimal-regret population (2020): 61. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TRINIDAD & TO Historical data: Population (1965): 896000. Population (1970): 971000. Population (1975): 1012000. Population (1980): 1082000. Population (1985): 1178000. Population (1990): 1215000. Population (1995): 1261000. Population (2000): 1289000. Population (2005): 1311587. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7500 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.6641 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 7121. Land area (2003, hectares): 513000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 75000. Number of plant species (1994): 1982 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 51000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 1337005. Population (2015): 1364687. Population (2020): 1394345. Population (2025): 1425756. Population (2030): 1458753. Population (2035): 1493208. Population (2040): 1529028. Population (2045): 1566144. Population (2050): 1604507. Population (2055): 1644083. Population (2060): 1684854. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 750000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 75000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 26756. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 268. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 16054. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 268. G. Minimal-regret population: 268. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 51000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 51000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 1282931. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 75000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 268. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 51000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 1337005. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 75000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 16054. Minimal-regret population (2020): 268. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TUNISIA Historical data: Population (1965): 4630000. Population (1970): 5127000. Population (1975): 5668000. Population (1980): 6469000. Population (1985): 7357000. Population (1990): 8207000. Population (1995): 8950000. Population (2000): 9519000. Population (2005): 10030057. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.9980 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1608 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 867. Land area (2003, hectares): 15536000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2774000. Number of plant species (1994): 2150 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 2 City population (1993): 1730000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10504137. Population (2015): 10947969. Population (2020): 11368232. Population (2025): 11770713. Population (2030): 12160327. Population (2035): 12541194. Population (2040): 12916740. Population (2045): 13289797. Population (2050): 13662703. Population (2055): 14037385. Population (2060): 14415438. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 27740000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2774000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 989613. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9896. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 593768. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9896. G. Minimal-regret population: 9896. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1730000. Number of cities targeted: 2 City population destroyed: 1730000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8473728. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2774000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 9896. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 2 City population: 1730000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1395000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 8866900. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2774000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 593768. Minimal-regret population (2020): 9896. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): TUNIS (1395) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TURKEY Historical data: Population (1965): 31997000. Population (1970): 36207000. Population (1975): 41020000. Population (1980): 46132000. Population (1985): 51855000. Population (1990): 57593000. Population (1995): 63070000. Population (2000): 68281000. Population (2005): 73250648. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.4300 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5477 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 1098. Land area (2003, hectares): 76963000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 23805000. Number of plant species (1994): 8472 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 39 City population (1993): 31305000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 77794365. Population (2015): 81965615. Population (2020): 85830079. Population (2025): 89448819. Population (2030): 92876216. Population (2035): 96159352. Population (2040): 99338210. Population (2045): 102446304. Population (2050): 105511486. Population (2055): 108556787. Population (2060): 111601209. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 238050000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 23805000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 8492335. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 84923. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 5095401. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 84923. G. Minimal-regret population: 84923. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 39 City population: 31305000. Number of cities targeted: 39 City population destroyed: 31305000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 39180879. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 23805000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 84923. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 39 City population: 31305000. Number of cities targeted: 12 City population destroyed: 21377000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 51426676. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 23805000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 5095401. Minimal-regret population (2020): 84923. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Istanbul (7490), ANKARA (3028), Izmir (2333), Adana (1472), Bursa (1317), Konya (1040), Gaziantep (930), Icel (908), Mersin (787), Antalya (734), Diyarbakir (677), Kocaeli (661) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TUVALU Historical data: Population (1965): 6000. Population (1970): 6000. Population (1975): 6000. Population (1980): 7000. Population (1985): 8000. Population (1990): 9000. Population (1995): 10000. Population (2000): 10000. Population (2005): 10011. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 3000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 2000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10070. Population (2015): 10173. Population (2020): 10311. Population (2025): 10478. Population (2030): 10670. Population (2035): 10882. Population (2040): 11111. Population (2045): 11355. Population (2050): 11614. Population (2055): 11884. Population (2060): 12166. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8056. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 2000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 10070. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: TANZANIA Historical data: Population (1965): 11808000. Population (1970): 13756000. Population (1975): 16180000. Population (1980): 18838000. Population (1985): 22155000. Population (1990): 26068000. Population (1995): 30849000. Population (2000): 34837000. Population (2005): 38331490. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.0240 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.9915 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 413. Land area (2003, hectares): 88359000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000000. Number of plant species (1994): 10000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 2146000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 41507704. Population (2015): 44396982. Population (2020): 47036036. Population (2025): 49464458. Population (2030): 51720775. Population (2035): 53840304. Population (2040): 55854215. Population (2045): 57789328. Population (2050): 59668323. Population (2055): 61510157. Population (2060): 63330559. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1426983. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14270. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856190. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14270. G. Minimal-regret population: 14270. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2146000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 2146000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 38620235. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14270. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 2146000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1096000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 40033022. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856190. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14270. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: UGANDA Historical data: Population (1965): 8001000. Population (1970): 9428000. Population (1975): 10771000. Population (1980): 12465000. Population (1985): 14542000. Population (1990): 17359000. Population (1995): 20274000. Population (2000): 23487000. Population (2005): 27307957. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.9930 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.7267 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 19710000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5100000. Number of plant species (1994): 5000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 331000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 30952881. Population (2015): 34302882. Population (2020): 37355992. Population (2025): 40132008. Population (2030): 42662457. Population (2035): 44983539. Population (2040): 47131645. Population (2045): 49140802. Population (2050): 51041425. Population (2055): 52859912. Population (2060): 54618721. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 51000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5100000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1819404. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18194. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1091642. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18194. G. Minimal-regret population: 18194. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 331000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 331000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 30447534. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5100000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 18194. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 331000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 30952881. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5100000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1091642. Minimal-regret population (2020): 18194. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: UKRAINE Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 51531000. Population (2000): 49688000. Population (2005): 47936195. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.7422 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2581. Land area (2003, hectares): 57935000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 32564000. Number of plant species (1994): 2927 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 50 City population (1993): 20308000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 46870333. Population (2015): 46324304. Population (2020): 46166966. Population (2025): 46306738. Population (2030): 46678161. Population (2035): 47233555. Population (2040): 47937657. Population (2045): 48764082. Population (2050): 49692921. Population (2055): 50709059. Population (2060): 51800991. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 325640000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 32564000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 11617072. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 116171. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 6970243. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 116171. G. Minimal-regret population: 116171. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 50 City population: 20308000. Number of cities targeted: 50 City population destroyed: 20308000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 28399069. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 32564000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 116171. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 50 City population: 20308000. Number of cities targeted: 13 City population destroyed: 12459000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 35538174. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 32564000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 6970243. Minimal-regret population (2020): 116171. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): KIEV (2643), Kharkov (1622), Dnepropetrovsk (1190), Donetsk (Donestskaya ob.) (1121), Odessa (1096), Zaporozhye (898), Lvov (807), Krivoi Rog (729), Mariupol (523), Nikolaev (Nikolaevskaya ob.) (515), Lugansk (505), Makeyevka (426), Vinnitsa (384) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: URUGUAY Historical data: Population (1965): 2693000. Population (1970): 2808000. Population (1975): 2829000. Population (1980): 2914000. Population (1985): 3009000. Population (1990): 3106000. Population (1995): 3218000. Population (2000): 3342000. Population (2005): 3465097. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1890 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.5690 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 757. Land area (2003, hectares): 17502000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1300000. Number of plant species (1994): 2184 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1360000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 3585138. Population (2015): 3701699. Population (2020): 3815957. Population (2025): 3928886. Population (2030): 4041292. Population (2035): 4153840. Population (2040): 4267079. Population (2045): 4381464. Population (2050): 4497373. Population (2055): 4615124. Population (2060): 4734985. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 13000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1300000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 463770. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4638. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 278262. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4638. G. Minimal-regret population: 4638. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1360000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1360000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 2069977. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1300000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4638. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1360000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1360000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 2069977. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1300000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 278262. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4638. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MONTEVIDEO (1360) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: UNITED STATES Historical data: Population (1965): 199796000. Population (1970): 210111000. Population (1975): 220165000. Population (1980): 231428000. Population (1985): 243484000. Population (1990): 255712000. Population (1995): 269945000. Population (2000): 285003000. Population (2005): 299796860. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.0130 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.8429 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 7967. Land area (2003, hectares): 915896000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 175209000. Number of plant species (1994): 16302 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 334 City population (1993): 218166000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 313571265. Population (2015): 326501485. Population (2020): 338778637. Population (2025): 350567382. Population (2030): 362007091. Population (2035): 373214330. Population (2040): 384285841. Population (2045): 395301556. Population (2050): 406327417. Population (2055): 417417861. Population (2060): 428617967. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1752090000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 175209000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 62505084. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 625051. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 37503050. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 625051. G. Minimal-regret population: 625051. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 334 City population: 218166000. Number of cities targeted: 334 City population destroyed: 218166000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 60147091. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 175209000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 625051. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 334 City population: 218166000. Number of cities targeted: 182 City population destroyed: 197417000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 84249372. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 175209000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 37503050. Minimal-regret population (2020): 625051. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: UZBEKISTAN Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 22785000. Population (2000): 24913000. Population (2005): 26837232. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.3470 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.2623 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2074. Land area (2003, hectares): 41424000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4485000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 17 City population (1993): 5332000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28589244. Population (2015): 30193658. Population (2020): 31675333. Population (2025): 33057812. Population (2030): 34362317. Population (2035): 35607368. Population (2040): 36808781. Population (2045): 37979860. Population (2050): 39131690. Population (2055): 40273448. Population (2060): 41412709. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 44850000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4485000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1600005. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16000. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 960003. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 16000. G. Minimal-regret population: 16000. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 17 City population: 5332000. Number of cities targeted: 17 City population destroyed: 5332000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 21898972. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4485000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 16000. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 17 City population: 5332000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2094000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 25961819. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4485000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 960003. Minimal-regret population (2020): 16000. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): TASHKENT (2094) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ST VINCENT & Historical data: Population (1965): 86000. Population (1970): 90000. Population (1975): 96000. Population (1980): 100000. Population (1985): 104000. Population (1990): 110000. Population (1995): 114000. Population (2000): 118000. Population (2005): 121142. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.1000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.0000 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 39000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 7000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 17000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 124605. Population (2015): 128072. Population (2020): 131561. Population (2025): 135086. Population (2030): 138659. Population (2035): 142288. Population (2040): 145982. Population (2045): 149749. Population (2050): 153595. Population (2055): 157524. Population (2060): 161542. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 70000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 7000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2497. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1498. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 25. G. Minimal-regret population: 25. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 17000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 17000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 106023. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 7000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 25. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 17000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 124605. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 7000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1498. Minimal-regret population (2020): 25. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: VENEZUELA Historical data: Population (1965): 9094000. Population (1970): 10721000. Population (1975): 12734000. Population (1980): 15091000. Population (1985): 17137000. Population (1990): 19502000. Population (1995): 21888000. Population (2000): 24277000. Population (2005): 26595731. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.6900 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.7841 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2130. Land area (2003, hectares): 88205000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 2598000. Number of plant species (1994): 20000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 28 City population (1993): 11536000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 28711703. Population (2015): 30637633. Population (2020): 32399265. Population (2025): 34023569. Population (2030): 35536367. Population (2035): 36961097. Population (2040): 38318306. Population (2045): 39625595. Population (2050): 40897804. Population (2055): 42147310. Population (2060): 43384372. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 25980000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 2598000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 926826. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9268. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 556095. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 9268. G. Minimal-regret population: 9268. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 28 City population: 11536000. Number of cities targeted: 28 City population destroyed: 11536000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 13579292. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 2598000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 9268. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 28 City population: 11536000. Number of cities targeted: 5 City population destroyed: 6727000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 19887524. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 2598000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 556095. Minimal-regret population (2020): 9268. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): CARACUS (2784), Maracaibo (1364), Valencia (1034), Maracay (800), Barquisimeto (745) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: US VIRGIN IS Historical data: Population (1965): 45000. Population (1970): 64000. Population (1975): 80000. Population (1980): 97000. Population (1985): 101000. Population (1990): 101000. Population (1995): 105000. Population (2000): 109000. Population (2005): 111063. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.2000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1452 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 34000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 4000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 12000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 113723. Population (2015): 116480. Population (2020): 119331. Population (2025): 122272. Population (2030): 125302. Population (2035): 128421. Population (2040): 131628. Population (2045): 134923. Population (2050): 138308. Population (2055): 141782. Population (2060): 145348. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 40000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 4000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1427. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 856. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 14. G. Minimal-regret population: 14. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 12000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 12000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 100726. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 4000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 14. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 12000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 113723. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 4000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 856. Minimal-regret population (2020): 14. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: VIET NAM Historical data: Population (1965): 38099000. Population (1970): 42898000. Population (1975): 47974000. Population (1980): 53005000. Population (1985): 59084000. Population (1990): 66074000. Population (1995): 72841000. Population (2000): 78137000. Population (2005): 83439197. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.8680 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.1009 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 545. Land area (2003, hectares): 32549000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 6500000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 24 City population (1993): 12385000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 88373149. Population (2015): 92914698. Population (2020): 97135934. Population (2025): 101102835. Population (2030): 104873570. Population (2035): 108498150. Population (2040): 112018850. Population (2045): 115470993. Population (2050): 118883879. Population (2055): 122281710. Population (2060): 125684450. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 65000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 6500000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2318848. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 23188. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1391309. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 23188. G. Minimal-regret population: 23188. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 24 City population: 12385000. Number of cities targeted: 24 City population destroyed: 12385000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 73347251. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 6500000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 23188. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 24 City population: 12385000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 8428000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 78148016. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 6500000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1391309. Minimal-regret population (2020): 23188. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Ho Chi Minh (3924), HANOI (3056), Haiphong (1448) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: VANUATU Historical data: Population (1965): 75000. Population (1970): 86000. Population (1975): 101000. Population (1980): 117000. Population (1985): 132000. Population (1990): 149000. Population (1995): 172000. Population (2000): 197000. Population (2005): 221511. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.2560 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 2.2085 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 1219000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 30000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 14000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 244036. Population (2015): 264538. Population (2020): 283185. Population (2025): 300210. Population (2030): 315865. Population (2035): 330400. Population (2040): 344042. Population (2045): 356993. Population (2050): 369427. Population (2055): 381491. Population (2060): 393309. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 300000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 30000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 10702. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 107. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 6421. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 107. G. Minimal-regret population: 107. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 14000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 224173. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 30000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 107. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 14000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 244036. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 30000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 6421. Minimal-regret population (2020): 107. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: W BANK & GAZA Historical data: Population (1965): 1199000. Population (1970): 1096000. Population (1975): 1255000. Population (1980): 1476000. Population (1985): 1783000. Population (1990): 2154000. Population (1995): 2635000. Population (2000): 3191000. Population (2005): 3795749. Total fertility rate (2003): 4.8940 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 4.1142 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 0. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 0. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 250000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 4372645. Population (2015): 4907315. Population (2020): 5396628. Population (2025): 5841850. Population (2030): 6246873. Population (2035): 6616872. Population (2040): 6957412. Population (2045): 7273897. Population (2050): 7571276. Population (2055): 7853914. Population (2060): 8125564. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 0. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 0. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 0. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 0. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 0. G. Minimal-regret population: 0. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 250000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 250000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 3957783. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 0. Minimal-regret population (2012): 0. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 250000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 4372645. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 0. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 0. Minimal-regret population (2020): 0. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: WALLIS & FUTA Historical data: Population (1965): 8000. Population (1970): 9000. Population (1975): 9000. Population (1980): 11000. Population (1985): 13000. Population (1990): 14000. Population (1995): 14000. Population (2000): 14000. Population (2005): 15903. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 20000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 1000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 17413. Population (2015): 18787. Population (2020): 20037. Population (2025): 21181. Population (2030): 22237. Population (2035): 23220. Population (2040): 24147. Population (2045): 25030. Population (2050): 25881. Population (2055): 26710. Population (2060): 27524. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 10000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 357. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 214. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 4. G. Minimal-regret population: 4. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 16169. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 4. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 1000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 17413. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 214. Minimal-regret population (2020): 4. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: W SAHARA Historical data: Population (1965): 50000. Population (1970): 76000. Population (1975): 75000. Population (1980): 141000. Population (1985): 172000. Population (1990): 207000. Population (1995): 247000. Population (2000): 285000. Population (2005): 324490. Total fertility rate (2003): Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 26600000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 20000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 361110. Population (2015): 394524. Population (2020): 424906. Population (2025): 452578. Population (2030): 477921. Population (2035): 501328. Population (2040): 523173. Population (2045): 543788. Population (2050): 563468. Population (2055): 582461. Population (2060): 600977. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 50000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1784. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1070. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18. G. Minimal-regret population: 18. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 20000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 331870. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 18. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 20000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 361110. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1070. Minimal-regret population (2020): 18. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SAMOA, W Historical data: Population (1965): 127000. Population (1970): 142000. Population (1975): 150000. Population (1980): 155000. Population (1985): 157000. Population (1990): 160000. Population (1995): 166000. Population (2000): 173000. Population (2005): 180729. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.9960 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0164 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): Land area (2003, hectares): 283000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 60000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 1 City population (1993): 32000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 188442. Population (2015): 195738. Population (2020): 202718. Population (2025): 209468. Population (2030): 216060. Population (2035): 222555. Population (2040): 229003. Population (2045): 235445. Population (2050): 241915. Population (2055): 248440. Population (2060): 255045. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 60000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 21405. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 214. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 12843. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 214. G. Minimal-regret population: 214. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 1 City population: 32000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 32000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 152116. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 60000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 214. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 1 City population: 32000. Number of cities targeted: 0 City population destroyed: 0. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 188442. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 60000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 12843. Minimal-regret population (2020): 214. Cities targeted: None Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: YEMEN Historical data: Population (1965): 5776000. Population (1970): 6290000. Population (1975): 6915000. Population (1980): 8140000. Population (1985): 9830000. Population (1990): 11944000. Population (1995): 15124000. Population (2000): 18017000. Population (2005): 21297130. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.9950 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.0300 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 222. Land area (2003, hectares): 52797000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 1466000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 4 City population (1993): 1864000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 24465660. Population (2015): 27397742. Population (2020): 30078870. Population (2025): 32517828. Population (2030): 34737073. Population (2035): 36765606. Population (2040): 38634210. Population (2045): 40372572. Population (2050): 42007765. Population (2055): 43563592. Population (2060): 45060487. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 14660000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 1466000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 522989. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5230. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 313794. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 5230. G. Minimal-regret population: 5230. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1864000. Number of cities targeted: 4 City population destroyed: 1864000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 21450321. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 1466000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 5230. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 4 City population: 1864000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 927000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 22966079. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 1466000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 313794. Minimal-regret population (2020): 5230. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): SANA'A (927) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SERBIA & MONT Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 10548000. Population (2000): 10555000. Population (2005): 10515443. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.7400 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.6863 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2018. Land area (2003, hectares): 10200000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3402000. Number of plant species (1994): 0 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 7 City population (1993): 1965000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 10534515. Population (2015): 10609077. Population (2020): 10727541. Population (2025): 10881363. Population (2030): 11064164. Population (2035): 11271135. Population (2040): 11498633. Population (2045): 11743883. Population (2050): 12004773. Population (2055): 12279697. Population (2060): 12567440. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 34020000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3402000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1213649. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12136. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 728190. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 12136. G. Minimal-regret population: 12136. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 7 City population: 1965000. Number of cities targeted: 7 City population destroyed: 1965000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8572027. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3402000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 12136. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 7 City population: 1965000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 1137000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 9398968. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3402000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 728190. Minimal-regret population (2020): 12136. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: SOUTH AFRICA Historical data: Population (1965): 19832000. Population (1970): 22657000. Population (1975): 25804000. Population (1980): 29140000. Population (1985): 32998000. Population (1990): 36848000. Population (1995): 40930000. Population (2000): 44000000. Population (2005): 45768082. Total fertility rate (2003): 2.7990 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.0604 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 2482. Land area (2003, hectares): 122104000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 14753000. Number of plant species (1994): 23000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 36 City population (1993): 14095000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 47394080. Population (2015): 48967334. Population (2020): 50504606. Population (2025): 52019829. Population (2030): 53524529. Population (2035): 55028215. Population (2040): 56538735. Population (2045): 58062578. Population (2050): 59605139. Population (2055): 61170930. Population (2060): 62763760. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 147530000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 14753000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 5263072. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 52631. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 3157843. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 52631. G. Minimal-regret population: 52631. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 36 City population: 14095000. Number of cities targeted: 36 City population destroyed: 14095000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 31073055. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 14753000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 52631. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 36 City population: 14095000. Number of cities targeted: 9 City population destroyed: 9363000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 36552380. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 14753000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 3157843. Minimal-regret population (2020): 52631. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): CAPE TOWN (1911), Johannesburg (1609), East Rand (1379), Durban (982), West Rand (870), PRETORIA (823), Port Elizabeth (652), Soweto (597), Sasolburg (540) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: CONGO, DR OF Historical data: Population (1965): 17719000. Population (1970): 20603000. Population (1975): 23858000. Population (1980): 27909000. Population (1985): 32142000. Population (1990): 37370000. Population (1995): 44383000. Population (2000): 48571000. Population (2005): 55130775. Total fertility rate (2003): 6.7000 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 3.0052 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 299. Land area (2003, hectares): 226705000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 6700000. Number of plant species (1994): 11000 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 13 City population (1993): 6259000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 61092006. Population (2015): 66524798. Population (2020): 71464528. Population (2025): 75967381. Population (2030): 80097820. Population (2035): 83920617. Population (2040): 87496318. Population (2045): 90879038. Population (2050): 94115739. Population (2055): 97246367. Population (2060): 100304444. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 67000000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 6700000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 2390197. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 23902. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1434118. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 23902. G. Minimal-regret population: 23902. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 13 City population: 6259000. Number of cities targeted: 13 City population destroyed: 6259000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 52476661. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 6700000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 23902. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 13 City population: 6259000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 2664000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 57425082. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 6700000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1434118. Minimal-regret population (2020): 23902. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ZAMBIA Historical data: Population (1965): 3614000. Population (1970): 4228000. Population (1975): 5068000. Population (1980): 5977000. Population (1985): 7031000. Population (1990): 8200000. Population (1995): 9371000. Population (2000): 10419000. Population (2005): 11068785. Total fertility rate (2003): 5.0440 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 1.5357 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 635. Land area (2003, hectares): 74339000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 5260000. Number of plant species (1994): 4600 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 8 City population (1993): 2606000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 11647233. Population (2015): 12184176. Population (2020): 12688048. Population (2025): 13166313. Population (2030): 13625407. Population (2035): 14070778. Population (2040): 14506987. Population (2045): 14937816. Population (2050): 15366394. Population (2055): 15795299. Population (2060): 16226661. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 52600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 5260000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1876483. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18765. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 1125890. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 18765. G. Minimal-regret population: 18765. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2606000. Number of cities targeted: 8 City population destroyed: 2606000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 8408231. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 5260000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 18765. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 8 City population: 2606000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 982000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 10426704. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 5260000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 1125890. Minimal-regret population (2020): 18765. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): LUSAKA (982) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: ZIMBABWE Historical data: Population (1965): 4375000. Population (1970): 5170000. Population (1975): 6146000. Population (1980): 7226000. Population (1985): 8772000. Population (1990): 10467000. Population (1995): 11731000. Population (2000): 12650000. Population (2005): 13070450. Total fertility rate (2003): 3.6480 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): 0.7722 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 740. Land area (2003, hectares): 38685000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 3220000. Number of plant species (1994): 4200 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 3 City population (1993): 1312000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 13459226. Population (2015): 13845867. Population (2020): 14232717. Population (2025): 14621712. Population (2030): 15014455. Population (2035): 15412280. Population (2040): 15816303. Population (2045): 16227471. Population (2050): 16646591. Population (2055): 17074365. Population (2060): 17511408. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 32200000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 3220000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 1148722. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11487. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 689233. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 11487. G. Minimal-regret population: 11487. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1312000. Number of cities targeted: 3 City population destroyed: 1312000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 11953941. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 3220000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 11487. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 3 City population: 1312000. Number of cities targeted: 1 City population destroyed: 681000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 12677900. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 3220000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 689233. Minimal-regret population (2020): 11487. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): HARARE (681) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:05:10 AM