ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION
ASSESSMENT:
J.
George Caldwell, Ph.D.
Joseph
George Caldwell, PhD
Tel.
(001)(864)439-2772, e-mail jcaldwell9@yahoo.com
Internet
website http://www.foundationwebsite.org
© 1995, 2002, 2005 Joseph George
Caldwell. All rights reserved.
Table
of Contents
III. Projection of Arable Land Area
IV. Projection of Carrying Capacity
VI. Environmental Situation Assessment
Appendix A. Population Projections for Trinidad and
Tobago
Appendix B. Projection Data Base
Appendix C. Statistical Summary for Trinidad and Tobago
This
report presents a summary assessment of the environmental situation and
challenges facing
This
report presents solely a summary assessment of the current and future
situation; it does not identify, describe, evaluate, or recommend policy
actions that can address the situation.
The development of suitable policy actions will require much additional
analysis, a high level of coordination among the various sectors of the nation,
inspired leadership, and participation of the nation's citizens in making and
implementing difficult and far-reaching decisions.
The
summary assessment of this report reveals that a daunting task faces
Environmental
problems are particularly difficult to address because they are regional in
scope, involve many different sectors, and are dynamic (evolve over time). Because the environment is part of a large,
complex, dynamic system, a "systems" approach is required to develop
a clear understanding of the problems and develop satisfactory strategies for
addressing those problems. Assessment of
environmental problems involves the physical sciences of physics, chemistry,
biology, geology, and meteorology. In
addition, however, viable solutions to environmental problems are critically
dependent on economic, political, and sociological factors as well.
The
summary assessment presented in this report makes no attempt to describe
The
principal data used in this report are vital statistics, demographic, economic,
and environmental data available from publications of the United Nations and
World Bank, such as the World Development Report 1994 (Reference 1), The
State of World Population 1994 (Reference 2), and Family Planning and
Population: A Compendium of International Statistics (Reference 3), and World
Resources 1994-95: A Guide to the Environment (Reference 4). Additional references are listed in the list
of references at the end of the report.
Throughout this report, the source of each data element used will be
provided. In many cases, more detailed
or more recent may be available from sources in
Appendix
A contains a detailed presentation of all of the data used to make the
population projections used in this report, and Appendix B contains a table
containing all of the population and other projections (arable land, forested
land, arable-land productivity, and carrying capacity). Appendix C presents a summary of some basic
environmentally related statistics about
One of
the most important factors affecting the environment is the availability of
arable land. If a country's available
arable land is sufficient to feed the population, the pressure on the
environment is substantially less than if it is not. If the gap between a nation's food needs and
its food production resources widens, the nation may make up the shortfall by
purchasing food on the world market. In
the long run, however, nations of modest economic means must rely heavily on
their own resources. As population
increases, pressure is placed on agricultural land (forested and arable land)
in two ways -- for food production and for physical living space.
This
section projects the availability of
The
total land area of
Major
factors affecting the availability of arable land are water availability (for
irrigation) and deforestation. Reference
6 reports that in 1986, 19% of the arable land area was irrigated, or .19 x
1,179 = 224 square kilometers. Reference
4 reports that over the periods 1979-81 and 1989-91, irrigated land comprised
18% of cropland. Further, it reports
that the annual withdrawal of water resources was 3% of total freshwater
resources, of which 35% is used in agriculture, 38% in industry, and 27% in
domestic uses. In view of the relatively
low withdrawal of total reserves, it does not appear that water availability is
a major constraining factor on availability of arable land.
Reference
6 reported that in 1986, 44% of
These
statistics show that
Deforested
areas may be converted to agricultural uses, such as tree farms (plantations)
or cropland, depending on the nature of the soil and availability of
agricultural inputs (water, fertilizer, pesticides, equipment) and demand for
alternative uses (e.g., roads, housing).
According to the data on deforestation and arable land availability over
the past decade, the extensive deforestation has not been associated with an
increase in the amount of arable land.
This is not surprising, in view of the nation's high population growth
rate -- 1.2% per year in 1960-65, 1.3% in 1985-1990, and 1.1% in 1990-95
(Reference 3). The rate of population
growth in
Based
on recent historical data, the amount of arable land in
It
may be reasonably hypothesized that the historical high level of deforestation
is a major factor underlying the fact that the amount of arable land has
remained essentially constant, in spite of high population growth. In view of this, it may reasonably be
conjectured that the amount of arable land will decrease, once the
natural forests are completely destroyed (in order to provide living space for
the increasing population).
In
view of the experience over the past decade, in which the amount of arable land
has not increased despite high demand for food and extensive destruction of
natural forest, it appears reasonable to expect that the amount of arable land
will remain constant at 1,200 square kilometers until all of the natural forest
is destroyed, and will decrease thereafter.
Note
that some portion of the deforested land may become available for use as arable
land. While some deforested land may
indeed be used for crops, the net increase in arable land over the
period 1980-90 (i.e., arable land increases less arable land decreases) was
only 3.4%, or .335% per year. This
corresponds to just 4 km2 per year, or about 10% of the amount of
deforested land.
In
view of the preceding considerations, a reasonable assumption concerning the
future availability of arable land (in the near future) is that (1) it will
remain essentially constant as long as the population continues to grow and the
current rapid destruction of natural forests continues; and (2) if
deforestation ceases (either because of the complete destruction of the forests
or other factors), the arable land will decrease by an amount proportional to
the amount of population increase.
Because
the destruction of forest has continued at a high rate for a long time, it will
be assumed that this destruction continues (at the same amount per year). At the end of 40 years, the forest will be
gone. Currently, the population is
increasing at 1.1% per year (Reference 2), or about 14,300 per year, and the
forest is being destroyed at a rate of 37 square kilometers (3,700 ha) per
year. This corresponds to a loss of .26
hectares of agricultural land per unit increase in population.
An
issue to address is the rate at which arable land will be destroyed after the
forest destruction is complete. During
recent decades, the population has grown at the annual rate of 1.1-1.3% per
year (Reference 3). During this period
the amount of arable land has remained about the same, and the amount of
forested land has decreased by about 1.9% per year. During the period in which the forest has
decreased by 1.9% per year and the population has grown by about 1.2% per year,
the change in the non-arable, non-forest area has been about 1.7% per year. This is shown in the following table (areas
in square kilometers):
Total Forested Arable
Other Other Land
Year Land Area Land Area Land Area Land Area Area (%)
1980
5,128 1,920 1,200 2,008 .39
1990
5,128 1,550 1,200 2,378 .46
The
change from 2,008 to 2,378 over a ten-year period is an annual (compound)
growth rate of 1.7%. During this period,
the economy of
The
average annual loss of agricultural land is about 37 km2 per
year. At an annual growth rate of 1.1%
(net of migration), the population of 1.3 million is increasing by about 14,300
per year. As noted, this corresponds to
an annual loss of .26 ha per person (37x100/14300) for living space.
In
the absence of a thorough analysis of detailed and comprehensive data on the
subject, it is not possible to predict with a high degree of certainty what
changes will occur in the amount of arable land in the future. If the population continues to grow at
current rates, it seems likely that it will remain somewhat unchanged for the
near future (while forests remain), and then decrease (after the forests are
gone). For the arable-land projections
used in this report, it will be assumed that the amount of arable land will
increase by 10% of the deforested area (3.7 km2) per year until the
forests are totally destroyed, and that the amount of arable land will decrease
at 1.7% per year thereafter, as long as population growth continues at current
levels. This assumption corresponds to
the assumption that recent trends in population growth and deforestation
continue as in the recent past.
This
assumption is somewhat optimistic in one sense, since it ignores the long-term
loss of agricultural productivity (soil depletion) of the land. (In most countries of the world, cropland is
being depleted much more rapidly than it is being replenished.) More importantly, it ignores the fact that
population growth cannot continue at any positive rate indefinitely. At some point, the population would cover the
entire land area. With
In
summary, it is unreasonable to project either that
Figure
1 illustrates recent levels of
Figure
2 illustrates the projection of arable and forested land area in
Neither
Figure 1 nor Figure 2 place the current and projected levels of arable and
forested land in historical perspective.
In studies dealing with population, changes occur very slowly, generally
on the order of a few percentage points per year. At such low rates of change, it is not easy
to grasp the magnitude of the changes that are occurring over long periods of
time, or to assess the reasonableness of the projections from a macroscopic
point of view. To look at Figure 1, for
example, the rate of change of both population and forested area is hardly
noticeable. To place the data of Figure
1 and Figure 2 in a better perspective, they are plotted in Figure 3, which
covers a much longer time period.
A
problem that arose with respect to Figure 3 is that data were not available to
this report on historical arable-land and forested-land areas prior to
1980. To enable the construction of a
tentative version of Figure 3 (pending access to historical data), the
historical levels of arable-land and forested-land were conjectured. Several hundred years ago, most of the land
area was forested, and the amount of arable land was probably on the order of
100 km2 until about 1800.
From 1800 to the present era, the amount of arable land increased to its
present 1,200 km2. In recent
times, deforestation has been occurring at an average rate of about 37 km2
per year. Combining these features (by
extrapolation, interpolation, and smoothing) results in the graph presented in
Figure 3. This graph illustrates
dramatically the impact that human population has had in changing the nature of
the land area of
While
the amount of arable land is a major factor determining agricultural output,
the productivity of the land is just as important. The agricultural productivity of land depends
on many factors, including availability of water, natural productivity,
climate, fertilizer, pesticides, energy, variety, and capital equipment. With respect to impact on the environment,
the essential factor is the carrying capacity of the land -- the number of
persons that the land can feed. This
factor may be measured as number of persons who can be supported per hectare of
arable land, or the maximal arable-land population density. This number is affected greatly by the type
of food consumed -- the "trophic level" of the consumption. As population grows to the limit of the food
supply, efficiency is increased by increasing consumption at a low trophic
level, such as by eating more cereal grains and less meat.
We
shall refer to the maximal arable-land population density of land when used at
a low tropic level of consumption (i.e., use of arable land for cereal
production rather than meat production) as the "productivity" of the
land. With a high level of energy inputs,
the productivity of arable land is high, e.g., 10 persons per hectare. With low inputs, the productivity is much
lower, e.g., 2.5 persons per hectare.
Apart
from the trophic level of consumption, the main factor influencing arable-land
productivity is the level of energy inputs to agriculture. The term "energy inputs" includes
all energy-related inputs, including fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation,
biological inputs (e.g., high-yield varieties) and mechanization (both
equipment and fuel). In order to project
the arable-land productivity, and hence the carrying capacity of the land, it
is necessary to examine and project the availability of energy inputs to
agriculture in
As
long as world fossil fuel supplies last, a strong economy can purchase sufficient
inputs to produce a high level of productivity.
As oil and natural gas reserves deplete over the next 50 years and world
population growth continues, the cost of energy inputs will skyrocket, and few
countries will be able to afford to purchase these inputs. At that time, the land productivity will drop
to pre-industrial levels for most nations without domestic coal reserves.
As a
percentage of consumption, exports are 76%, or 225 PJ. At current production rates,
Per
capita energy consumption in 1991 was 237 gigajoules (GJ) (Reference 4) versus
320 GJ for the
In
the long run, demand for energy will rise (as fossil fuel reserves deplete), so
that demands for exported oil and gas will rise. Currently, Trinidad and Tobago's economy is
heavily industrial (Reference 1: 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in agriculture,
36% in industry, 8% in manufacturing, and 61% in services for 1992, vs. US
figures of 2%, 33%, 22% and 65% for 1988, reported in World Development
Report, 1990). In 1990, only 7% of
the total labor force was agricultural (Reference 4). According to Reference 4, in 1989-91
As
the preceding computations show,
The
implication of these figures is that as
As
world oil and gas reserves deplete, the cost of energy inputs to agriculture
will soar. As
Although
it is expected that productivity will decrease in the long run (i.e., over the
next 50 years), the rate at which this decrease occurs is subject to
conjecture. In recent years, Trinidad
and Tobago's agricultural production has decreased on an exchange-rate basis
(Reference 1: 6.6% annual decline over the period 1980-92) at twice the rate of
gross domestic product (-3.7% over the same period). Although total agricultural production and
food production have declined by about 5% on a per-capita basis (Reference 4)
over the period 1981-1991, total agricultural production and food production
have increased by about 8% over that period (recall that cropland increased by
3.4% over this period). Average yields
of cereal production (kg/ha) have decreased by 9% over the same period, and
average yields of roots and tubers have increased by 14%.
These
figures do not suggest that
It is
acknowledged that assumptions on the timing of the decline of maximal
arable-land productivity as energy resources deplete is somewhat
conjectural. What is far less
speculative, however, is the fact that the world's oil and gas reserves are
rapidly being depleted, and it is generally recognized that known global
reserves will be depleted within about 50 years at current consumption rates
(Reference 4: 45 years for oil, 52 years for natural gas). And, it is a fact that agricultural yields
for low-energy-input agriculture are but a fraction of those of
high-energy-input agriculture.
With
a high level of agricultural inputs,
Because
of the uncertainty over both the magnitude and the timing of the decline in
maximal arable-land productivity, three different cases will be
considered. The three assumptions
correspond to different "paths" (curves) from the current maximal
arable-land productivity to the eventual arable-land productivity. Specifically, it will be assumed that maximal
productivity continues at a level of 10 persons per hectare for 10 years, for
20 years, and for 30 years, before declining to a lower level. Furthermore, three levels will be assumed for
the lower level: 10 persons per hectare (i.e., no change), 5 persons per
hectare, and 2.5 persons per hectare.
Although the assumption of an eventual level of 10 persons per hectare
is not considered reasonable, it is nevertheless included to show that the
general conclusions reached in this analysis are not dependent on the
particular productivity level assumed.
(Note: The conclusions of this report are not affected by the assumed
level of productivity in 50 years; in all cases, the gap between population and
population carrying capacity is large and continues to widen.)
Figure
4 shows the projections of population carrying capacity under the preceding
assumptions about the availability of arable land and the productivity of the
land. In the Figure, "Alternative
1" refers to the assumption of constant productivity at a level of 10
persons per hectare for 10 years followed by a decline to 2.5 persons per
hectare in 2045; "Alternative 2" refers to the assumption of constant
productivity at 10 persons per hectare for 20 years followed by a decline to 5
persons per hectare in 2045; and "Alternative 3" refers to the
assumption of constant productivity of 10 persons per hectare throughout the
period 1995-2045.
Historical
Population of
Figure
5 shows the historical population of
Exponential
growth of the type that has continued in
The
data in Figure 5 are from several sources.
The early historical data are from Bridget Brereton's book, A History
of Modern
The
following table presents the data plotted in Figure 5.
Year Population Source
1498
20,000-40,000 Brereton (Ref. 7)
1592
15,000-20,000 Brereton
1765 2,503 Brereton
1784 6,503 Brereton
1797 17,718 Brereton
1800 20,000 Atlas of World Population History (Ref.
8)
1850 80,000 Atlas of World Population History
1900 270,000 Atlas of World Population History
1925 380,000 Atlas of World Population History
1950 630,000 Atlas of World Population History
1950* 640,000 World Resources Institute (Ref. 4)
1975
1,100,000 Atlas of World
Population History
1990
1,240,000 World Resources
Institute
1990*
1,236,000 The Population
Council (Ref. 3)
1992
1,300,000 The World Bank
(Ref. 1)
1995
1,310,000 World Resources
Institute
1995*
1,305,000 The Population
Council
For
the cases in which multiple figures are available, the asterisked ones are
plotted in Figure 5. These figures were
selected because they are of highest precision (greatest number of significant
digits).
Population
Projections -- No Resource Constraints
Population
projections for
Most
population projections are based on very simple assumptions about future total
fertility rates and the values of other demographic parameters, such as the
assumption that the TFR will decline steadily to a "replacement"
level (value of about 2.1 for healthy populations) and stay at that value
thereafter.
The
following table presents several population projections for
2000*
1,365,000 The Population
Council
2000
1,000,000 The World Bank
(rounded to nearest million)
2025*
1,780,000 World Resources
Institute
2025
1,800,000 United Nations
Population Fund (Ref. 2)
2025
2,000,000 The World Bank
(rounded to nearest million)
2045*
2,006,000 Appendix A of this
report
In
the figures that follow, the asterisked figures will be plotted, because they
are of similar precision (they are all based on similar demographic
assumptions).
Each
of the preceding population projections is based on a single assumption about
the values of all demographic parameters that affect population growth. Because of the uncertainty associated with
assumptions about the future values of demographic parameters, however, it is
usual to make projections under a range of values of key parameters. The UN, for example, publishes three global
population projections -- the high, medium, and low "variants". The populations given above correspond to the
low variant.
Population
projections are quite sensitive to the assumptions made about future
demographic parameter values, especially total fertility rates and migration
rates. Seemingly small changes in the
values of these parameters can result in quite sizable differences in the
projection after a few years. Because of
the high level of sensitivity of population projections to the assumed values
of the demographic parameters, it is desirable to perform a "sensitivity
analysis," in which projections are made under a range of values for the
most important parameters.
Appendix
A presents population projections for
Total
Projection/ Fertility Emigration
Assumption Set Rate (TFR) Rate
I 2.5-2.4 10,000/year
II 2.5-2.3 5,000/year
III 2.5-2.1
0/year
The
third projection listed above (TFR declining to 2.1, zero emigration)
corresponds most closely to the UN "low variant" projection. The other two projections assume that a
substantial emigration occurs. If little
emigration occurs and the TFR does not decline rapidly to 2.1, the projected
population would be substantially larger than the highest projection listed
above (i.e., Projection III). Such
projections would correspond more closely to the UN medium and high variant
cases. (Note: Emigration can keep the
rate of growth substantially less than the natural rate of increase. As the global population expands rapidly in
the coming years, immigration may be a major factor in determining a particular
country's population. Since immigration
has a net value of zero for the world, it is not a factor in projections of the
global population. For this reason,
although much study has been conducted by international organizations on total
fertility rate, its determinants, and its trends, relatively little attention
has been paid to immigration. For
Figure
6 displays these three population projections.
Appendix
A presents a rationale for selecting the preceding values as a basis for the
projections. The projections resulting
from the three sets of values presented above are not the highest nor the
lowest projections that could be obtained by assuming various combinations of
reasonable values for the key parameters, but they do indicate a range in which
population projections are likely to fall under reasonable assumptions. The projections presented in Figure 6 are not
"best estimates" of population and carrying capacity, since they
simply extrapolate current trends without taking into full and detailed account
the interrelationships among the variables.
For the purposes of this report, a rough idea of the likely range of
future population is all that is needed.
Population
projections invariably provoke argument, because of their inherent uncertainty
and simplicity, and because of the importance of the stakes involved in the
issues involved. It is important that
such arguments center on a discussion of the assumptions under which the
projections are made, not simply on a blind acceptance or rejection of the
projection per se. If a projection is
not accepted as reasonable, reasons should be presented concerning which
demographic values are not believed, and other values suggested (with a
rationale).
The
purpose of using population projections is to assist planning. They are widely used in social and economic
planning and policy analysis because so many social and economic variables are
related to population. The principal
advantages of population projections are their relative simplicity and ease of
generation. They are very useful for
obtaining "first-cut" assessments of future situations, and of the
potential long-run implications of alternative behavior, actions, or policies. This report makes use of population
projections to assess the relationship between
About
the only thing that can be said with certainty about the future is that it will
not follow any prespecified course.
A single projection is not very useful, since it does not indicate a
range of uncertainty, such as a statistical confidence interval or tolerance
interval. A set of projections under a
range of parameter values deemed reasonable by a group of informed individuals
is much more credible and therefore useful as a basis for planning. The three-projection population-projection
set of Figure 6 is presented as a candidate set for preliminary planning
purposes; other projections may readily be added to the Figure, as they become
available.
As
was discussed earlier, it is helpful to display population projections as part
of a graph showing population growth over a long period of time. Figure 7 displays the population of Trinidad
and Tobago, including both the historical data shown in Figure 5 and the third
projection listed above (TFR=2.1, emigration =0 persons/year).
Population
Projections with Resource Constraints
Although
simple projections such as those above are useful for short-term planning, they
are of limited value for long-range planning because they do not explicitly
take into account the relationship of population growth to other variables,
such as economic developments or resource constraints. Because population growth
"explodes" (grows exponentially) for any positive growth rate (TFR
above the replacement level), published projections assume that the TFR
declines to that level. Total fertility
rate is not, however, the ultimate determinant of population size. These projections ignore the various
constraints that can moderate population growth, such as land availability,
land productivity, water availability, climate, politics, and economics.
Even
if it is assumed that the total fertility rate declines to replacement level,
population projections for most countries rise to extremely high levels because
of the "momentum" of population growth (i.e., the increase in the
birth rate caused when the large number of children had by a previous high-fertility-rate
generation enters their reproductive years).
In the case of
Simple
population projections do not take into account the effects of other factors,
such as economic and resource constraints, that can have a substantial effect
on population growth. Because fossil
fuels are being rapidly depleted, it is difficult to imagine how many nations
will be able to afford, in the long run, either the energy inputs to maintain
agricultural production at current yield levels, or to import food to cover
large food deficits. It is no longer
expected that additional breakthroughs will occur in agriculture to
significantly increase yields, as in the past.
In the long run, the population of countries whose populations far
exceed the carrying capacity of their own arable land will be subject to population
decreases from famine, migration, war, disease, or other external forces. All of these factors have operated in the
past, and they will occur with greater frequency in the future as global
population soars and fossil-fuel supplies exhaust.
Figure
8 combines two of the figures presented earlier -- it shows the population
projections (Figure 6) and the carrying-capacity projections (Figure 4) on the
same graph. This figure illustrates the
growth of the gap between population and carrying capacity, under the trend
projections discussed earlier (i.e., on the assumptions about future values of
demographic, economic, and resource-utilization trends). The salient feature of Figure 8 is that there
is a substantial gap between the projected carrying capacity of the arable-land
resources of the nation and the projected population, a gap which widens with
each passing year. The graph clearly
shows an ever-widening gap between population and carrying capacity even under
the assumption that productivity continues unchanged (Alternative 3).
Figure
9 shows a population projection that takes into account the expected decline in
carrying capacity. The Figure shows the
approximate points in time at which the population of Trinidad and Tobago
passed the points at which it was self-sufficient in food based on
low-energy-input agriculture (ca. 1950) and based on high-energy-input
agriculture (ca. 1990). These dates
represent fundamental changes in the vulnerability of the nation's population. They may be referred to as Phase I
(food-self-sufficient with the low energy inputs of traditional agriculture),
Phase II (food-self-sufficient with high-energy-input agriculture and
low-trophic-level consumption), and Phase III (unable to provide sufficient
food for population from nation's own agricultural resources: dependent on
exports, migration, or other factors to provide food or reduce
population).
The
projection of Figure 9 assumes that the population of
The
environmental factor that has enabled mankind to reach a very high population
level is fossil fuels. Once mankind
began to tap this large, one-time energy windfall, the global population began
to grow, starting from about half a billion people in 1650. Once fossil fuels are depleted,
high-energy-input agriculture and its associated high levels of productivity
will cease and the human population will decrease to pre-fossil-fuel levels
(about half a billion for the planet, about half a million for
From
an environmental perspective, one must assess what the impact on the
environment will be under the various population projections. If it is assumed that population growth
continues indefinitely, the natural environment simply ceases to exist. If energy prices rise so that the gap between
the nation's population and its ability to produce its own food increases, the
pressure on the land will also become severe.
Population
projections for
1. World
Development Report 1994, Published for the World Bank by
2. The
State of
3.
Ross, John A., W. Parker. Mauldin, and Vincent. C. Miller, Family Planning
and Population: A Compendium of International Statistics, The Population
Council,
4. World
Resources 1994-95, World Resources Institute,
5.
6. The
State of
7.
Brereton, Bridget, A History of Modern
8.
McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, Atlas of World Population History,
Facts on File, New York, published by Penguin Books and Allen Lane, 1978
9.
Morgan, Michael D., Joseph M. Moran, and James H. Wiersma, Environmental
Science: Managing Biological & Physical Resources, Wm. C. Brown
Publishers,
10.
Keyfitz, Nathan and Wilhelm Flieger, World Population: An Analysis of Vital
Data,
11.
Coale, Ansley J. and Paul Demeny with Barbara Vaughn, Regional Model Life
Tables and Stable Populations, 2nd edition, Academic Press, New York, 1983
12.
This
appendix describes the demographic data used in the population projections
presented in the text. Figures A1-A3
present the data used for the three projections presented in the text.
Base-Year
Demographic Data
Data
on current and recent-past birth rates, death rates, and total fertility rates
were readily available from United Nations Sources (References 1-4). Data on the age-sex distribution
("population pyramid") of the population for the base year (1995)
were not readily available. Such data
are available from public health offices in
Reference
4 presented age distributions for
Age 1975 1995
<15 38.0 33.8
15-65 57.0 60.5
>65 4.9 5.7
Detailed
age-sex distribution of the population of Trinidad and Tobago were available
from Reference 10 (Keyfitz and Flieger, World Population: An Analysis of
Vital Data) for 1961, with projections for 1965, 1970, and 1975, but these
were considered too old, in view of the substantial changes in fertility and
mortality that have occurred in recent years.
Rather
than use the old data, it was decided to select a stable population from
Reference 11 (Coale and Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable
Populations) for the base year age-sex distribution data. The stable population selected was the
"West" population for mortality level 24 and a gross reproduction
rate of 1.75 for mean age of the underlying maternity schedule equal to 29
years. The population in the age
categories of that table match those specified above quite well, as shown
below:
Age Female Male
<15 32.36 33.05
15-65 58.96 60.97
>65 8.66 5.98
The
selected Coale-Demeny table has a female life expectancy of 77.5 years and a
male life expectancy of 73.9 years; female birth rate of 25.06 and male birth
rate of 25.73; and female death rate of 6.00 and male death rate of 6.67. The growth rate of these tables, 1.9% does
not match current levels for
The
following table specifies the percentage of males and females in each age
category of the selected Coale-Demeny stable-population tables. The variable TOTPOP is the total base-year
population. FEMRADIX is the radix of the
female table, and MALRADIX is the radix of the male table. AGE specifies the age category. FEMPROP specifies the percentage of females
in each age category, and MALPROP specifies the percentage of males in each age
category. FEMPOP is the number of
females in each age category, obtained by multiplying FEMPROP times
TOTPOP. MALPOP is similarly defined. (Note: For input to the computer programs
used to make the population projections, the first two age categories were
combined, as were the last five.)
TOTPOP
FEMRADIX MALRADIX AGE FEMPROP MALPROP FEMPOP
MALPOP
1305000
7750000 7390508 0 ‑1
2.46 2.52 16433
16053
1‑ 4 9.38
9.58 62658 61025
5 ‑9 10.75
10.98 71809 69943
10‑14 9.77
9.97 65263 63510
15‑19 8.87
9.05 59251
57649
20‑24 8.06
8.20 53840 52235
25‑29 7.31
7.43 48830 47330
30‑34 6.63
6.73 44288 42871
35‑39 6.01
6.10 40146 38857
40‑44 5.44
5.51 36339 35099
45‑49 4.91
4.95 32798 31532
50‑54 4.40
4.41 29392 28092
55‑59 3.91
3.87 26119 24652
60‑64 3.42
3.30 22845 21021
65‑69 2.91
2.71 19439 17263
70‑74 2.34
2.07 15631 13186
75‑79 1.69
1.40 11289 8918
80‑84 1.05
0.80 7014 5096
85‑89 0.50
0.34 3340 2166
90‑94 0.15
0.09 1002 573
95+ 0.02
0.01 134 64
No
data were available for immigration.
Based on the difference between the Coale-Demeny stable population
growth rate and the recent growth rate, emigration might be comparable to half
of current growth (.01 x 1,305,000 = 13,050), or about 6,500 per year.
Projected
Demographic Data
Total
Fertility Rates Figure A4 presents a plot of total fertility
rates of
Year TFR
1960-65 5.0
1975-80 3.4
1980-85 3.2
1985-90 3.0
1990-95 2.7
1995-2000 2.5
Extrapolation
of the values for 1985-90 (3.0 and 2.7) suggest that TFR might decline to a
value of 2.4 for the period 1995-2000.
Beyond
that period, as discussed in the text, it is assumed that the TFR in later
periods either remains constant at 2.4 (Projection I), declines to 2.3
(Projection II) or declines to 2.1 (Projection III).
Emigration
Rates/Numbers Since no data were available on emigration, a
wide range of values was assumed for this parameter. Comparison of the current total population
growth rate to the growth rate of the Coale-Demeny stable population suggests
an emigration rate of about 6,500.
Emigration values of 10,000, 5,000, and 0 emigrants per year were used
for Projections I, II, and III, respectively.
Fertility
Age Distributions No data were available for the fertility age
distribution. The fertility age
distribution for the
Infant
Mortality Rates Assumed to continue at current level of 15
per 1,000 live births.
The
population projections were made using the cohort-component method, using the
computer programs of Reference 12. For
each year of the projection, this program selects the Coale-Demeny
"West" model life table corresponding to the specified infant
mortality rate.
Figure
A1. Demographic Data for Projection I
DESTINY PLANNING AND FORECASTING COMPUTER
PROGRAM PACKAGE, VERSION 1.0
PROGRAM NAME: CHECK
DATE OF RUN (DD/MM/YYYY):
TIME OF RUN (HH:MM:SS):
NAME OF PARAMETER FILE = TRIN951.DAT
GENERAL POPULATION DESCRIPTION:
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO RESIDENT POPULATION
(FERT. RATE=2.4, EMIG. RATE=10,000/YR)
BASE YEAR = 1995
NO OF RACIAL/ETHNIC GROUPS = 1
NO OF REGIONS = 0
VITAL STATISTICS PARAMETER OPTION = 2
LIFE TABLE OPTION = 1
EXTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 1
INTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 0
SERVICE SYSTEM OPTION = 0
NAME(S) OF RACE ...
ALL
PARAMETERS FOR RACE = ALL
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(S)...
2.500 2.400 2.400 2.400 2.400 2.400 2.400
2.400 2.400 2.400
FERTILITY AGE DISTRIBUTION(S)...
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143 .058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
INFANT MORTALITY RATE(S)...
15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH CORRESPONDING TO
IMR FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 73.89
BASE‑YEAR POPULATION AND SURVIVAL
PROBABILITIES FOR FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD...
MALE FEMALE MALE
FEMALE
0 .9790 .9849
0‑4 77078. 79091. .9967
.9977
5‑9 69943. 71809. .9981
.9988
10‑14 63510. 65263. .9974
.9986
15‑19 57649. 59251. .9959
.9979
20‑24 52235. 53840. .9953
.9972
25‑29 47330.
48830. .9950
.9965
30‑34 42871. 44288. .9939
.9954
35‑39 38857. 40146. .9912
.9933
40‑44 35099. 36339. .9856
.9893
45‑49 31523. 32798. .9755
.9828
50‑54 28092. 29392. .9584
.9729
55‑59 24652. 26119. .9317
.9564
60‑64 21021. 22845. .8909
.9261
65‑69 17263. 19439. .8277
.8722
70‑74 13186. 15631. .7353
.7851
75+ 16817. 22779. .4885
.5270
TOTAL 637126. 667860.
TOTAL BASE‑YEAR POPULATION (POPBASE)
= 1304986.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 23.30
CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 6.30
INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 15.00
POPULATION (POPPREV) TEN YEARS PRIOR TO BASE
YEAR = 1191000.
AVERAGE CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 24.65
AVERAGE CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 6.45
AVERAGE INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 20.00
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION RATE(S) (PER 1000)
(EMRATE)...
.000
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION NUMBER(S) (IMMNO)...
‑10000.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFREST) ESTIMATED FROM
BASE‑YEAR BIRTH RATE = 2.960
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 2.500
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (BIRTH RATE (BRFF)
PER 1000 FEMALES AGED 15‑44)
FOR BASE YEAR = 107.56
ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL NET EXTERNAL MIGRATION
NUMBER (BASED ON BIRTH RATE
AND DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS)
= ‑11180.
ESTIMATED ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 = ‑9.018
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION NUMBER SPECIFIED FOR
FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD = ‑10000.
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION RATE PER 1000 SPECIFIED
FOR FIRST PROJECTION
PERIOD
= .000
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION (MIG) IMPLIED BY
MIGRATION NUMBER (IMMNO) AND/OR
MIGRATION RATE (EMRATE) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = ‑10000.
APPROX ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 POPULATION
(MIGR) = ‑7.663
CRUDE BIRTH RATE PER 1000 (CBR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 18.097
CRUDE DEATH RATE PER 1000 (CDR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 7.475
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER 1000
FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS
= 1000((POPBASE/POPPREV(IR))**.1‑1)
= 9.18
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATE (GIVEN
SPECIFIED PARAMETERS):
1000((POPPROJ/POPBASE)**.2‑1) = 3.71
APPROX. ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER
1000, BASED ON CBR,
CDR, AND MIGR = CBR‑CDR+MIGR = 2.96
Figure
A2. Demographic Data for Projection II
DESTINY PLANNING AND FORECASTING COMPUTER
PROGRAM PACKAGE, VERSION 1.0
PROGRAM NAME: CHECK
DATE OF RUN (DD/MM/YYYY):
TIME OF RUN (HH:MM:SS):
NAME OF PARAMETER FILE = TRIN951.DA2
GENERAL POPULATION DESCRIPTION:
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO RESIDENT POPULATION
(FERT. RATE=2.3, EMIG. RATE=5,000/YR)
BASE YEAR = 1995
NO OF RACIAL/ETHNIC GROUPS = 1
NO OF REGIONS = 0
VITAL STATISTICS PARAMETER OPTION = 2
LIFE TABLE OPTION = 1
EXTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 1
INTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 0
SERVICE SYSTEM OPTION = 0
NAME(S) OF RACE ...
ALL
PARAMETERS FOR RACE = ALL
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(S)...
2.500 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300
2.300 2.300 2.300
FERTILITY AGE DISTRIBUTION(S)...
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
INFANT MORTALITY RATE(S)...
15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH CORRESPONDING TO
IMR FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 73.89
BASE‑YEAR POPULATION AND SURVIVAL
PROBABILITIES FOR FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD...
MALE FEMALE MALE
FEMALE
0 .9790 .9849
0‑4 77078. 79091. .9967
.9977
5‑9 69943. 71809. .9981
.9988
10‑14 63510. 65263. .9974
.9986
15‑19 57649. 59251. .9959
.9979
20‑24 52235. 53840. .9953
.9972
25‑29 47330. 48830. .9950
.9965
30‑34 42871. 44288. .9939
.9954
35‑39 38857. 40146. .9912
.9933
40‑44 35099.
36339. .9856
.9893
45‑49 31523. 32798. .9755
.9828
50‑54 28092. 29392. .9584
.9729
55‑59 24652. 26119. .9317
.9564
60‑64 21021. 22845. .8909
.9261
65‑69 17263. 19439. .8277
.8722
70‑74 13186. 15631. .7353
.7851
75+ 16817. 22779. .4885
.5270
TOTAL 637126. 667860.
TOTAL BASE‑YEAR POPULATION (POPBASE)
= 1304986.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 23.30
CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 6.30
INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 15.00
POPULATION (POPPREV) TEN YEARS PRIOR TO BASE
YEAR = 1191000.
AVERAGE CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 24.65
AVERAGE CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 6.45
AVERAGE INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 20.00
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION RATE(S) (PER 1000)
(EMRATE)...
.000
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION NUMBER(S) (IMMNO)...
‑5000.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFREST) ESTIMATED FROM
BASE‑YEAR BIRTH RATE = 2.960
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 2.500
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (BIRTH RATE (BRFF)
PER 1000 FEMALES AGED 15‑44)
FOR BASE YEAR = 107.56
ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL NET EXTERNAL MIGRATION
NUMBER (BASED ON BIRTH RATE
AND DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS)
= ‑11180.
ESTIMATED ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 = ‑9.018
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION NUMBER SPECIFIED FOR
FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD = ‑5000.
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION RATE PER 1000 SPECIFIED
FOR FIRST PROJECTION
PERIOD =
.000
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION (MIG) IMPLIED BY
MIGRATION NUMBER (IMMNO) AND/OR
MIGRATION RATE (EMRATE) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = ‑5000.
APPROX ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 POPULATION
(MIGR) = ‑3.831
CRUDE BIRTH RATE PER 1000 (CBR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 18.097
CRUDE DEATH RATE PER 1000 (CDR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 7.475
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER 1000
FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS
= 1000((POPBASE/POPPREV(IR))**.1‑1)
= 9.18
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATE (GIVEN
SPECIFIED PARAMETERS):
1000((POPPROJ/POPBASE)**.2‑1) = 7.46
APPROX. ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER
1000, BASED ON CBR,
CDR, AND MIGR = CBR‑CDR+MIGR = 6.79
Figure
A3. Demographic Data for Projection III
DESTINY PLANNING AND FORECASTING COMPUTER
PROGRAM PACKAGE, VERSION 1.0
PROGRAM NAME: CHECK
DATE OF RUN (DD/MM/YYYY):
TIME OF RUN (HH:MM:SS): 7:16: 9
NAME OF PARAMETER FILE = TRIN951.DA3
GENERAL POPULATION DESCRIPTION:
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO RESIDENT POPULATION
(FERT. RATE=2.1, EMIG. RATE=0/YR)
BASE YEAR = 1995
NO OF RACIAL/ETHNIC GROUPS = 1
NO OF REGIONS = 0
VITAL STATISTICS PARAMETER OPTION = 2
LIFE TABLE OPTION = 1
EXTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 1
INTERNAL MIGRATION OPTION = 0
SERVICE SYSTEM OPTION = 0
NAME(S) OF RACE ...
ALL
PARAMETERS FOR RACE = ALL
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(S)...
2.500 2.300 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100
2.100 2.100 2.100
FERTILITY AGE DISTRIBUTION(S)...
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
.221
.312 .251 .143
.058 .015
INFANT MORTALITY RATE(S)...
15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
15.00 15.00 15.00
EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH CORRESPONDING TO
IMR FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 73.89
BASE‑YEAR POPULATION AND SURVIVAL
PROBABILITIES FOR FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD...
MALE FEMALE
MALE FEMALE
0 .9790 .9849
0‑4 77078. 79091. .9967
.9977
5‑9 69943. 71809. .9981
.9988
10‑14 63510. 65263. .9974
.9986
15‑19 57649. 59251. .9959
.9979
20‑24 52235. 53840. .9953
.9972
25‑29 47330. 48830. .9950
.9965
30‑34 42871. 44288. .9939
.9954
35‑39 38857. 40146. .9912
.9933
40‑44 35099. 36339. .9856
.9893
45‑49 31523. 32798. .9755
.9828
50‑54 28092. 29392. .9584
.9729
55‑59 24652. 26119.
.9317 .9564
60‑64 21021. 22845. .8909
.9261
65‑69 17263. 19439. .8277
.8722
70‑74 13186. 15631. .7353
.7851
75+ 16817. 22779. .4885
.5270
TOTAL 637126. 667860.
TOTAL BASE‑YEAR POPULATION (POPBASE)
= 1304986.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 23.30
CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 6.30
INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR BASE YEAR = 15.00
POPULATION (POPPREV) TEN YEARS PRIOR TO BASE
YEAR = 1191000.
AVERAGE CRUDE BIRTH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 24.65
AVERAGE CRUDE DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 6.45
AVERAGE INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN
YEARS = 20.00
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION RATE(S) (PER 1000)
(EMRATE)...
.000
ANNUAL EXTERNAL MIGRATION NUMBER(S) (IMMNO)...
0.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFREST) ESTIMATED FROM
BASE‑YEAR BIRTH RATE = 2.960
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 2.500
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (BIRTH RATE (BRFF)
PER 1000 FEMALES AGED 15‑44)
FOR BASE YEAR = 107.56
ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL NET EXTERNAL MIGRATION
NUMBER (BASED ON BIRTH RATE
AND DEATH RATE FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS)
= ‑11180.
ESTIMATED ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 = ‑9.018
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION NUMBER SPECIFIED FOR
FIRST PROJECTION PERIOD = 0.
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION RATE PER 1000 SPECIFIED
FOR FIRST PROJECTION
PERIOD =
.000
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION (MIG) IMPLIED BY
MIGRATION NUMBER (IMMNO) AND/OR
MIGRATION RATE (EMRATE) SPECIFIED FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 0.
APPROX ANNUAL RATE PER 1000 POPULATION
(MIGR) = .000
CRUDE BIRTH RATE PER 1000 (CBR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 18.097
CRUDE DEATH RATE PER 1000 (CDR) FOR FIRST
PROJECTION PERIOD = 7.475
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER 1000
FOR PREVIOUS TEN YEARS
= 1000((POPBASE/POPPREV(IR))**.1‑1)
= 9.18
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATE (GIVEN
SPECIFIED PARAMETERS):
1000((POPPROJ/POPBASE)**.2‑1) = 11.15
APPROX. ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE PER
1000, BASED ON CBR,
CDR, AND MIGR = CBR‑CDR+MIGR = 10.62
Figure
B1. Projection Data Base
YEAR
POP1 POP2 POP3
AREATOT AREAARA AREAFOR PALDENS1 PALDENS2 PALDENS3 CARRY1
CARRY2 CARRY3
1995
1304986 1304986 1304986
5128 1200 1350
10.00 10.00 10.00
1200000 1200000 1200000
1996
1312280 1317280 1322280
5128 1204 1310
10.00 10.00 10.00
1204000 1204000 1204000
1997
1319573 1329573 1339573
5128 1208 1270
10.00 10.00 10.00
1208000 1208000 1208000
1998
1326867 1341867 1356867
5128 1212 1230
10.00 10.00 10.00
1212000 1212000 1212000
1999
1334160 1354161 1374161
5128 1216 1190
10.00 10.00 10.00
1216000 1216000 1216000
2000
1341454 1366454 1391454
5128 1220 1150
10.00 10.00 10.00
1220000 1220000 1220000
2001
1348847 1378029 1408332
5128 1224 1110
10.00 10.00 10.00
1224000 1224000 1224000
2002
1356241 1389604 1425211
5128 1228 1070
10.00 10.00 10.00
1228000 1228000
1228000
2003
1363634 1401179 1442089
5128 1232 1030
10.00 10.00 10.00
1232000 1232000 1232000
2004
1371027 1412754 1458967
5128 1236 990
10.00 10.00 10.00
1236000 1236000 1236000
2005
1378420 1424329 1475845
5128 1240 950
10.00 10.00 10.00
1240000 1240000 1240000
2006
1387008 1437380 1491992
5128 1244 910
9.81 10.00 10.00
1220675 1244000 1244000
2007
1395595 1450431 1508139
5128 1248 870
9.63 10.00 10.00
1201200 1248000 1248000
2008
1404182 1463483 1524286
5128 1252 830
9.44 10.00 10.00
1181575 1252000 1252000
2009
1412770 1476534 1540432
5128 1256 790
9.25 10.00 10.00
1161800 1256000 1256000
2010
1421357 1489585 1556579
5128 1260 750
9.06 10.00 10.00
1141875 1260000 1260000
2011
1430180 1503181 1573462
5128 1264 710
8.88 10.00 10.00
1121800 1264000 1264000
2012
1439002 1516776 1590344
5128 1268 670
8.69 10.00 10.00
1101575 1268000 1268000
2013
1447825 1530372 1607226
5128 1272 630
8.50 10.00 10.00
1081200 1272000 1272000
2014
1456648 1543967 1624109
5128 1276 590
8.31 10.00 10.00
1060675 1276000
1276000
2015
1465470 1557562 1640992
5128 1280 550
8.13 10.00 10.00
1040000 1280000 1280000
2016
1473060 1570063 1657005
5128 1284 510
7.94 9.83 10.00
1019175 1262600 1284000
2017
1480650 1582564 1673017
5128 1288 470
7.75 9.67 10.00
998200 1245067 1288000
2018
1488240 1595065 1689031
5128 1292 430
7.56 9.50 10.00
977075 1227400 1292000
2019
1495830 1607566 1705044
5128 1296 390
7.38 9.33 10.00
955800 1209600 1296000
2020
1503420 1620067 1721057
5128 1300 350
7.19 9.17 10.00
934375 1191667 1300000
2021
1509491 1630933 1735332
5128 1304 310
7.00 9.00 10.00
912800 1173600 1304000
2022
1515561 1641801 1749607
5128 1308 270
6.81 8.83 10.00
891075 1155400 1308000
2023
1521631 1652667 1763883
5128 1312 230
6.63 8.67 10.00
869200 1137067 1312000
2024
1527701 1663535 1778158
5128 1316 190
6.44 8.50 10.00
847175 1118600 1316000
2025
1533771 1674401 1792434
5128 1320 150
6.25 8.33 10.00
825000 1100000 1320000
2026
1538891 1684154 1805016
5128 1324 110
6.06 8.17 10.00
802675 1081267 1324000
2027
1544012 1693907 1817599
5128 1328 70
5.88 8.00 10.00
780200 1062400 1328000
2028
1549132 1703660 1830181
5128 1332 30
5.69 7.83 10.00
757575 1043400 1332000
2029
1554253 1713413 1842763
5128 1309 0
5.50 7.67 10.00
720146 1003840 1309356
2030
1559373 1723166 1855346
5128 1287 0
5.31 7.50 10.00
683770 965323 1287097
2031
1563976 1732316 1866651
5128 1265 0
5.13 7.33 10.00
648423 927825 1265216
2032
1568580 1741466 1877957
5128 1244 0
4.94 7.17 10.00
614081 891324 1243708
2033
1573183 1750617 1889262
5128 1223 0
4.75 7.00 10.00
580718 855795 1222565
2034
1577786 1759767 1900568
5128 1202 0
4.56 6.83 10.00
548313 821217 1201781
2035
1582389 1768917 1911874
5128 1181 0
4.38 6.67 10.00
516841 787567 1181351
2036
1586381 1777407 1922000
5128 1161 0
4.19 6.50 10.00
486281 754824 1161268
2037
1590373 1785897 1932127
5128 1142 0
4.00 6.33 10.00
456610 722967 1141526
2038
1594365 1794387 1942254
5128 1122 0
3.81 6.17 10.00
427808 691974 1122120
2039
1598357 1802877 1952380
5128 1103 0
3.63 6.00 10.00
399854 661827 1103044
2040
1602349 1811367 1962507
5128 1084 0
3.44 5.83 10.00
372726 632504 1084292
2041
1605432 1818836 1971190
5128 1066 0
3.25 5.67 10.00
346404 603987 1065859
2042
1608516 1826304 1979874
5128 1048 0
3.06 5.50 10.00
320870 576257 1047740
2043 1611599
1833773 1988557 5128
1030 0 2.88
5.33 10.00 296104
549295 1029928
2044
1614682 1841242 1997240
5128 1012 0
2.69 5.17 10.00
272088 523083 1012420
2045 1617765 1848711
2005923 5128 995
0 2.50 5.00
10.00 248802 497604
995208
Data
Sources: References 1-4 (primarily Ref. 4, World Resources 1994)
1990 1995
Land
Area
5,128 km2 5,128 km2
Population 1.24m 1.31m
Arable
Land
1,200 km2
Forested
Land 1,550 km2
Population
Growth Rate 1.03
Crude
Birth Rate
23.3/1,000 population
Crude
Death Rate
6/1,000 population
Life
Expectancy at Birth 71.3 years
Total
Fertility Rate
2.7/woman
Infant
Mortality Rate
18/1,000 live births
Under-five
Mortality Rate
24/1,000 per 1,000 live births
Maternal
Mortality Rate 110/100,000 live births
Population
Density
2.49/ha
Domesticated
Land as % of Land Area 26%
Cropland 1,200 km2
Hectares per capita .10
Permanent
Pasture 110
km2
Urban
Population as % of Total 66.6%
Persons
per Vehicle 1
Percent
Unemployment, male 16%
Percent
Unemployment, female
23%
Index
of Agricultural Production (1980=100)
103 total, 89 per capita
Index
of Food Production (1980=100)
105 total, 91 per capita
Average
Production of Cereals 17,000 metric tons
Average
Yields of Cereals
2,833 kg/ha
Percent Change since 1980 -9%
Average
Yields of Roots and Tubers
11,000 kg/ha
Percent Change since 1980 14%
Irrigated
Land as % of Cropland 18%
Avg.
Annual Fertilizer Use
67kg/ha of cropland
Pesticide
Consumption
2,303 metric tons
Tractors 2,623
% Change since 1980 11
Average
Annual Net Trade in Food
Cereals 254,000
metric tons (import)
Food Oils 14,618
metric tons
Avg.
Annual Donations or Receipts of Food Aid
0
Agricultural
Labor Force 7% of
total labor force
Natural
Forest
1,550 km2
Extent 40 km2
Percent 1.9%
Annual
Logging of Closed Broadleaf
Extent 30 km2
As % of Closed
% That Is
Plantations
Extent 180 km2
Extent 1,550 km2
% Annual Change, 1981-90 -1.9%
Rain
Extent 1,550 km2
% Annual Change -1.9%
Roundwood
Production
Total 75,000
m3
% Change since 1980 -12%
Fuel and Charcoal 22,000 m3
% Change since 1980 38%
Industial Roundwood 53,000 m3
% Change since 1980 -24%
Processed
Wood Production
Sawnwood 62,000 m3
% Change since 1980 90%
Average
Annual Net Trade in Roundwood
2,000 m3
Commercial
Energy Production
Total 533
petajoules (PJ)
% Change since 1971 -2%
Solid 0
Liquid
312
PJ
% Change since 1971 -24%
Gas 221
PJ
% Change since 1971 64%
Commercial
Energy Consumption
Total 296 PJ
% Change since 1971 169%
Per capita 237 gigajoules
(GJ)
% Change since 1971 111%
Per constant $US of GNP 72 megajoules (MJ)
% Change since 1971 161%
Imports as a % of Consumption -76% (-137% in 1971)
Traditional
Fuels
Total 3 PJ
% Change since 1971 -51%
Per Capita 2,249 MJ
% Change since 1971 -62%
Percentage of Total Consumption 1% (7% in 1971)
Crude
Oil (proved recoverable reserves)
80 million metric tons
Natural
Gas (proved recoverable reserves)
252 billion cubic meters)
Gross
Domestic Product
US$5,388 in 1992
Distribution of GDP:
Agriculture 3%
Industry 36%
Manufacturing 8%
Services 61%
Annual
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Total 5.10 km3
Per Capita 4,030 m3
Annual
Withdrawals
Total .15 km3
(1975)
% of Water Resources 3%
Per Capita 148 m3
Sectoral
Withdrawals
Domestic 27%
Industry 38%
Agriculture 35%
Average
Annual Marine Catch
Total 8,420
metric tons
% Change since 1980 109%
Per
Capita Annual Food Supply from Fish and
Seafood
Total 7.4 kg
% Change since 1980 -42.1%
Carbon
Dioxide Emmisions
Total
18,430,000 metric tons
Solid 0
Liquid
5,884,000 metric tons
Gas
10,845,000 metric tons
Gas Flaring 1,479,000
metric tons
Cement Manufacture 219,000 metric tons
Per
Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions
14.73 metric tons
Carbon
Dioxide Emissions from Land-Use Change
1,100,000 metric tons
Methane
from Antropogenic Sources
Total 98,000
metric tons
Solid Waste 7,000 metric
tons
Coal Mining 0
Oil and Gas Production 87,000 metric tons
Wet Rice Agriculture 1,000 metric tons
Livestock 3,000
metric tons
Chlorfluorocarbons 0